Housing
How housing development is shaping population growth in Newcastle and the Hunter
As forecasters, we simplify millions of data points into a single forecast number that tells you when, where and how much a place is expected to grow. But that simplicity can disguise the deep and considered research behind every forecast.
A forecast is more than a number – it’s about giving confidence – to your investors, to your community, to your board or to yourself – that you’re making decisions that are based on a reliable and trusted source of information. That you have an independent and expert assessment, built on a foundation of comprehensive research and the knowledge of specialists.
In today’s blog, Liza gives us a snapshot of the research that underpins every forecast we publish, using examples from our recent forecasts for the fast-growing Newcastle and Hunter Valley region of New South Wales.
Our latest population forecasts for New South Wales show regional cities like Newcastle will account for an increasing share of that state’s growth over the next 25 years. But exactly when and where this growth occurs very much depends on when and where new housing will be made available.
What drives population growth in the Hunter-Central Coast region?
The Hunter-Central Coast region is forecast to add 330,000 people, or 11% of New South Wales’ forecast population growth, in the 25 years to 2046.
Demographically, this area grows from natural increase (births outweighing deaths), overseas migration, and ‘internal’ migration from other parts of Australia, especially the northern regions of Greater Sydney.
How is housing development influencing growth in the Hunter Region?
To produce a realistic forecast for an area we need an understanding of:
- The short-, medium-, and long-term housing supply
- The likely order of development on medium- to long-term sites
- The sources of long-term development capacity
This video provides a simple explanation of why housing and development research is a critical step in our process, to develop detailed forecasts for a local area that consider the wider regional and national context of a place.
https://content.id.com.au/hubfs/Introduction%20to%20microgeographic%20forecasts%20from%20.id.mp4
1. The short-, and medium-term housing supply
There is no single source of comprehensive information about future development, so in the course of forecasting an area, we need to create one by combining information from a range of sources. This is both an input to our population forecasts and an information product in its own right – our Residential Development Forecasts.
To gain a broad understanding of the short-, medium-, and long-term housing supply, we analyse satellite imagery to identify sites cleared and/or under construction, use data sources such as OpenLot and Cordell to track marketing activity for sites yet to commence, conduct site-specific research to identify development applications and their outcomes, and review suburb- and region-wide policy documents to track State and Local Government development plans.
Huntlee Estate (shared between Cessnock and Singleton LGAs) provides an example of how detailed satellite imagery that’s updated frequently allows for refined mapping of development and precise counts of dwellings being constructed. This informs the short-term but also allows for greater confidence in making medium-term estimates as rates of construction are established.
The map below provides an example of how the various pieces of information we use reveal different stages of development across the estate;
- Red shading – housing currently under construction, informs the short-term
- Beige shading – land clearing, site work underway to prepare the location for development, informs the short-term
- Green shading – a development proposal has been approved here, so this site is likely to begin development in the next few years and informs short- to medium-term supply
- Grey shading – an area zoned for additional development, but not yet underway and without an active proposal. Being identified as part of an activity centre zone means that it’s likely to be developed before residential areas that are somewhat further (such as the purple-shaded site)
Understanding the timing and sequence of future development in the short-term
2. The likely order of development on medium- to long-term sites
Typically, there are a number of sites that could commence development in the medium- to long-term of the forecast period. There tends to be less information on these land parcels as compared to those for the short-term, so a big challenge lies in crafting a realistic story of the probable timings. In our recent work on growth fronts such as the Lochinvar suburb in the Maitland LGA, we leaned on the broad site grouping presented in (1) above, combining this with a logic-based sequencing of sites shaded the same grey colour and therefore all identified for development in the medium-term. We considered factors such as proximity of the sites to existing amenities, and patterns of development observed in the suburb in the short-term – the characteristics of sites that tended to commence first in the area and rates of recent past construction – to inform possible timing.
3. The sources of long-term development capacity
The suburb of Medowie, in Port Stephens LGA, is an example where our detailed research yields more nuanced estimates of where future residential land is likely to be situated. Here, we mapped future housing stock (areas shaded grey below) based on the Council policy document Medowie Place Plan 2023. Having these areas clearly identified allows us to allocate dwellings to the appropriate parts of this suburb in the medium-, and particularly the long-term, where supply would otherwise be limited.
We also map residential development areas beyond the 25-year forecast horizon where such are identified. In the suburb of Heddon Greta, in the Cessnock LGA, delving into Council policies yields development sites that are under investigation and form part of the long-term vision of a place. Cessnock City Council’s Heddon Greta – Cliftleigh Corridor Structure Plan 2022 includes several investigation areas for urban release should the need for additional housing arise, which we mapped in yellow below.
By including this information in our overall assessment of potential sources of future housing, we ensure that in all years of our forecast period we are relying on sites identified by a planning authority and can support future housing demand with realistic allocations to areas where this demand may be realised.
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The National Forecasting Program is an independent research program from .id (informed decisions), to maintain the most detailed and up-to-date forecasts of population, housing and residential developments in Australia.
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English Councils on the Brink of Meltdown: A Crisis Fourteen Years in the Making
Over half of local councils in England could go ‘bankrupt’ over the next 5 years, according to a Local Government Information Unit (LGIU) survey revealed last week. The crisis threatens to devastate our local public services. Libraries, parks, theatres, public toilets, street cleaning services, youth provision and highway maintenance are just some of the many vital local public services affected by this unfolding crisis.
This is a catastrophe for communities, fourteen years in the making. Councils across England have been grappling with unprecedented real-world cuts to their spending power for well over a decade.
In 2010 political choices were made at the national level to reduce government grants and transition to a very different funding system. Councils would be expected to raise more of their income locally via Council Tax, business rates and local charges. Councils serving some of the poorest parts of the country have seen the biggest overall cut to their spending power, leaving a growing number unable to balance the books.
A recent report published by the Special Interest Group of Municipal Authorities (SIGOMA) showed that Government policy has led to a £13.9 billion cumulative cut to local authority budgets since 2010.
The core spending power of English councils is 18% lower now than it was back in 2010/11, in real terms. For councils serving the poorest populations that figure jumps to 26%.
There are stark examples that expose the grim reality and gross unfairness of government policy. According to the latest data the City of Bradford Council has suffered a £955 funding cut per dwelling, whereas Cambridgeshire is £166 worse off per household.
Another comparison shows that while Nottingham City Council has been trying to cope with a £950 reduction in spending power per dwelling, on the same measure Oxfordshire County Council is just £96 worse off per residential property.
Despite years and years of tough choices, service reductions and closures, asset sales, increasing Council Taxes and desperate pleas to central government to reform the funding system, many councils are left having to make the most unpalatable decisions to remain legally compliant.
The Perfect but Predictable Storm
This crisis was not only entirely predictable, it was clearly predicted. In 2010, Barnet Council published a budget chart which showed that without government reform of the social care system, their entire annual budget would be used up by adult and children’s care services by 2023.
For a growing number of councils that is exactly what is now happening, with statutory care services for the elderly and for vulnerable children taking up the vast bulk of financial resources, leaving too little left for everything else.
Not only have councils been hit by growing demand in these service areas they are also now seeing huge increases in people being made homeless. As the higher cost of living takes a toll on households they ultimately present to their local Town Hall in need of emergency or temporary accommodation.
The most recent Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities data shows a record 109,000 households living in temporary accommodation.
What Will this Mean for People?
On the ground in our towns, cities and villages, the political choices of national government, the funding technicalities and formulas have real-world impacts on communities.
For Councils facing a bleak financial outlook and attempting to remain legally compliant with a balanced budget, a range of ever-more-awful actions become necessary: the closure of facilities and public buildings, fewer libraries, streets not adequately maintained or cleansed, growing backlogs of cases in council departments such as planning and children’s services, less action on anti-social behaviour and generally an inability for Councils to be the effective lead organisation of their ‘place.’
The Government announced exceptional financial support for a number of the most distressed councils this week, but the list of councils on the brink is set to accelerate. The growing costs of care services for the elderly cannot be met by council taxes. Structural reform and change at the national level is desperately and urgently needed to stop a cycle of decline in our communities.
The Great Lismore Flood: Revisiting the use of floodplains
Last week saw the release of the NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan which outlines a blueprint for managing future disasters; this week marks the second anniversary of the great flood at Lismore and places downstream in the Richmond River valley. This is a moment to ask how we are going in NSW as far as Continue reading »
Landlord Conservative MPs are ‘Lobbying to Water Down Protections for Renters’
Correction: This piece was amended at 2:30pm on 29th February after Generation Rent retracted analysis which had suggested that households made homeless outnumbered households buying their first home in the year to October.
A spokesperson for the group said: "It has come to our attention that the first time buyer figures provided through Stamp Duty statistics do not include people paying less than £250,000 since September 2022. We cannot therefore back up that claim. There is actually no reliable figure for first time buyers. We'd like to sincerely apologise."
Conservative ministers are proposing to water down planned new protections for renters, following lobbying from landlord MPs, according to reports.
The Times reported on Wednesday that PM Rishi Sunak is preparing to overrule Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, and water down the long-delayed Renters Reform Bill. The bill would fulfil a long-standing pledge to end so-called no-fault evictions, but it has faced stiff opposition from landlord MPs.
The Renters Reform Bill has seen no parliamentary progress since committee stage in November. The Renters Reform Coalition has pointed out that 16 of the MPs are private landlords, with some owning five or more properties.
On Wednesday, Shadow Communities Secretary Angela Rayner said the reports marked another “betrayal” from the government, but Downing Street insisted ministers are committed to banning no fault evictions, as Politico reported.
Liberal Democrat Housing Spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said: "Once again the Conservative Government has broken its promise and left vulnerable families across the country at the mercy of no fault evictions.
"Everyone deserves a secure home, but yet another broken promise will put renters at risk through no fault of their own. For once, Rishi Sunak needs to stick to his word, and ban no fault evictions."
The London Renters’ Union recently claimed the state of the UK’s private rental sector is causing a “mental health crisis” affecting millions of people.
A YouGov poll for the group earlier this month found that one in three renters feel that private renting is negatively impacting their mental health, with three in five renters say they feel depressed about paying their rent.
And one in four renters also said that renting had a negative impact on their physical health.
Rents are rising to record highs, particularly in the capital. More than two thirds of landlords with no remaining debt on their properties have increased rents on new tenancies, LRU analysis suggests.
But they have also warned that banning no-fault evictions will not tackle the problem of rising rents.
In October last year, LRU launched the Renters Manifesto alongside thinktank New Economics Foundation, Generation Rent, and other tenants unions. The manifesto called for comprehensive rent controls, as well as a shift towards more public housing.
Scotland has committed to introduce rent controls, and Wales is planning to consult on the policy. The Right to Buy council homes (at heavily discounted rates) has also been banned in Scotland and Wales.
There have been reports that Chancellor Hunt could announce 99% mortgages in his budget next week, to help would-be buyers struggling with deposits for a home. But industry experts fear boosting demand without increasingly supply would merely make the problem worse by inflating house prices further.
The National Housing Federation (NHF) and Shelter recently issued a joint call for the Government to fund the delivery of 90,000 new social-rent homes a year. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, ‘the government would break even in three years, help create 140,000 jobs and lead to a £12bn profit over 30 years’, the LDN newsletter reported.
Housing Crisis Hotspot
For those in low-wage coastal areas like Cornwall, the housing situation is also chronic. Max Scout, secretary of the ACORN renters union there, told Byline Times: "We have a lot of members that have faced evictions in the past year, particularly section 21 evictions. As more and more properties become Airbnbs and short-term lets or second homes, available housing becomes more scarce.
"And because of the rent increases, people's housing situation becomes more and more precarious...The commodification and the precarity of housing puts people at risk of homelessness. There's in excess of 20,000 people on the waiting list for social housing in Cornwall," Scout said.
Even those with somewhere to live struggle with the quality of rental stock. ACORN in Cornwall recently ran a successful campaigns to improve housing quality, after members complained that one social housing group failed to even provide carpets for tenants.
But it is the lack of rental options that is most acute in Cornwall. In the face of anger over the growing number of properties being turned into holiday lets, Michael Gove recently announced plans to require home owners to apply for planning permission if they wanted to convert housing stock to holiday homes.
But the Lib Dems say that planning permission should be needed for anyone wanting to convert a property from permanent to any non-permanent use – whether a holiday let or a second home. Moreover, the plans would not apply to the thousands of existing holiday lets that campaigners say take housing stock out of the under-supplied rental market.
Lib Dem Andrew George branded it the “umpteenth re-announcement by Conservatives of an intention to do something about the injustices of the way the system works,” adding: “Nothing has actually happened.”
Cornwall housing campaigners say there is a major tax loophole – the Small Business Rate Relief (SBRR) system – which entitles holiday home owners to avoid paying either council tax or business rates, resulting in millions of pounds of subsidies for holiday home owners in Cornwall alone since 2012.
Do you have a story that needs highlighting? Get in touch by emailing josiah@bylinetimes.com
Greens Sad After Dutton Won’t Join Their Drum Circle, Despite Joining Forces To Sink Albo’s House Plan
The Australian Greens have held a sad drum circle today after their offers to Opposition leader, Peter Dutton, to join were strongly rebuffed.
”We thought that after we took Peter’s side against Albo to make sure no new houses were built that he’d want to hang out with us,” said Greens leader Adam Bandt. ”Boy were we wrong.”
”Poor Nick McKim offered to share his mung beans with Mr Dutton and Peter slapped them away.”
When asked why the Greens chose to side with the Coalition to stop the housing bill rather than work with the Government, the Greens leader said: ”When a fire is burning and the only way to stop it is with water, you have to way up which is more important.”
”Water preservation or a raging bushfire. We Greens don’t take these decisions lightly.”
”Anyway, must be off, Max Chandler-Mather suggested we head around to Albo’s place and inspect his bins to make sure he’s recycling properly.”
Mark Williamson
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‘Prince William Is Part of the Problem’: Plan for 24 New Homes for Homeless Dubbed ‘Drop in the Ocean’ in Cornwall Amid Mounting Crisis
Cornish councillors and activists have warned that plans by the £1 billion Duchy of Cornwall estate – now controlled by Prince William – to build 24 homes for homeless people on Crown land will make little dent in a housing crisis that has left 23,000 people waiting for a council home.
Working with homeless charity St Petrocs, the Duke of Cornwall has pledged to spend £3 million to build homes due to be ready next year for homeless people to move into.
Cornwall Council Labour group Leader Jayne Kirkham welcomed the scheme but told Byline Times that it represents a drop in the ocean to tackle the issue.
“Obviously we need something more systemic than a project like this," she said. "It's a huge problem. We are struggling all across Cornwall. I've seen many families evicted from their private rented accommodation and having to live in caravans. It affects the kids’ schools, and parents’ jobs.”
Coastal Cornwall has a persistent issue with thousands of unregulated holiday lets and (often empty) second homes vastly outnumbering the number of homes available for rent.
AirBnb listings show that, as of 20 February 2024, there are 976 ‘entire homes’ available as short-term holiday lets in Cornwall for more than £240 a night.
Yet there are just 348 homes currently available for general private rent in the entire county listed on RightMove. Another site, OpenRent, lists 117; while OnTheMarket lists 145. Cornwall has a population of 570,000 people.
Councillor Kirkham provided the example of a primary school headteacher from outside of the county who took up a job in Cornwall but couldn’t find a place to live.
“People come down, accept jobs, and then they end up having to reject the job because they can't find anywhere to live within their price range – or anything at all because things are just going so quickly," she told this newspaper.
"The private rented sector is tiny, but there are thousands of holiday lets that are incredibly expensive. It’s very difficult to find anything affordable."
Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Secretary Michael Gove has announced plans for reform that would require new long-term holiday lets to have to apply for a change of use to take them out of the wider rental market. But this would not apply to the thousands of holiday lets already in the system and is unlikely to impact the issue of second homes that sit empty while owners live in their main residences outside of the county.
Former Liberal Democrat MP for St Ives, Andrew George, now runs a housing charity in Cornwall, which has previously worked with the Duchy estate. He told Byline Times that Prince William’s project was “nibbling away at the edges, but that's what we're all doing”.
“Since 1960, Cornwall's housing stock has almost tripled," he said. "It's one of the fastest growing places in the United Kingdom, yet the housing problems of locals have gotten significantly worse. So Cornwall disproves the rather two-dimensional kindergarten economics argument that said it's a simple relationship between demand and supply."
He suggests that a radical shift in housebuilding is required – a complete halt on developments focused on local need for affordable housing: “It sounds counterintuitive, but the best way of building affordable homes is to stop all development, and then to have an exceptions policy. In other words, to say that that land will never be developed, but if it's to meet demonstrable need, we'll make an exception.”
On Gove’s reforms, George is sceptical: “They promised to do these things six or seven years ago. They actually haven't done anything. All you've got is the umpteenth announcement of exactly the same thing that they have promised.”
Not Just a Numbers Game
Lib Dem Councillor Thalia Marrington represents Mousehole and Newlyn, fishing communities which appear deserted at certain times due to the prevalence of second homes and holiday lets.
“You can never build enough because people want to move ‘down to lovely Cornwall’," she told Byline Times. "But we have such a massive crisis. There are roughly 23,000 on the housing waiting list in Cornwall. When you're talking about 24 homes… As soon as you hear ‘24’ you don't look into it too much more, because it's just the tip of the iceberg.
“There are already around 800 households in emergency temporary accommodation here… Yet we’ve got thousands of AirBnbs and second homes in Cornwall, so you've got so much [housing] stock gone."
Many holiday lets are classed as “furnished holiday lettings” (FHLs) and receive Capital Gains Tax relief and Small Business Rate Relief – effectively Government subsidies. Councillor Marrington says the lost business rates have cost councils hundreds of millions in lost revenue over several decades.
But she is critical of the push to build more housing of any kind.
“It's all wrong housing – it's houses with five bedrooms," she said. "It's not going to help the housing crisis… There seems to be the blanket approach that any housebuilding is good because they're all sold, that stock is ‘trickling down’ [to locals]. It’s the opposite.”
But some locals object to new affordable housing when it is built near them, she added.
“I haven't had a second term so [I am] playing with fire to a certain degree, [but] sometimes you don't hear from the quieter voices. If you go to a planning committee, you'll hear all the objections... You're not hearing from the 800 stuck in temporary accommodation here."
Many of those will have been evicted at short notice by landlords swapping regulated private rented accommodation for unregulated holiday lettings. She notes that the Government has said for the past five years that it will ban no-fault evictions, but this has still not happened.
The Lib Dem councillor, who is an MP hopeful, also wants to see a tourist tax to fund new social housing – something else not addressed in Gove’s latest reform plans. It is also not mentioned in the latest ‘thin’ devolution deal handed to Cornwall. (A stronger devolution package fell apart amid council opposition to having a new elected mayor).
And while AirBnb has been a focus nationally on housing, second homes that sit empty are sometimes seen as a bigger problem in Cornwall.
“If people are only down for a tiny part of the year, those houses are actually having the most impact negatively, because they’re not spending on tourism, and going out to restaurants and all those sorts of things," she added. "At least with holiday lets people are consistently around spending on hospitality.”
In some ways, she told Byline Times, the “horse has bolted” in terms of the Government fixing these systemic issues.
Good Publicity
Meanwhile, republican campaigners have called out reports that the Duchy of Cornwall is investing in affordable housing as "more spin than substance".
Anti-monarchy campaign group Republic points out that the Duchy estate is not Prince William's personal property but that of the Crown. It is, in effect, gifted by Parliament to the heir who is the eldest son of the monarch.
The Duchy estate may expect to make profit from the homes, which will at any rate remain its asset, rather than being ‘donated’ to St Petrocs.
Graham Smith, Republic CEO, said: "The country will spend at least £3.4 billion on the monarchy over the next decade. That's money that could be invested in homes for those who most need them, instead of two dozen palatial homes for one family.”
Prince William takes around £22 million a year in private income from the Duchy, representing most of the Crown company’s annual ‘surplus’.
The value of the Duchy estate rose by nearly £25 million in the year to 2023 solely from the value of its land increasing, without any action on the owners’ parts.
The £3 million to be spent on new homes for the homeless amounts to 14% of the Duchy’s profit in the year to 2023, though a far smaller fraction of its circa £1 billion net value.
Smith argues that Prince William is “part of the problem”.
“Rather than be thankful for a few homes built on Duchy land, which William will profit from, we all need to be demanding the return of the Duchy to full public ownership and an end to the monarchy," he told this newspaper.
Whatever side of the monarchy debate locals sit on, Councillor Marrington shares an experience all political representatives in Cornwall have had.
“You get a call from somebody saying ‘I really don't want to call and say this but I don't know what to do’," she said. "A family calls me from Newlyn and says ‘we’re being evicted in two weeks’. And it's really hard. That's the reality of it.”
All six parliamentary seats in Cornwall are currently represented by Conservatives. But both the Lib Dems and Labour are hoping to take several in this year’s general election.
How Much Land the Duchy of Cornwall Owns
CountyArea (Hectares)Devon28,423.50Cornwall7,540.40Hereford5,366.80Somerset4,979.90Isles of Scilly1,606.40Dorset1,320.90Wiltshire1,253.20Gloucestershire658.4Shropshire393.2Kent349Nottinghamshire287.4Oxfordshire110.4Carmarthenshire95.9Vale of Glamorgan19.6Greater London10.1Hertfordshire7Buckinghamshire4.4Norfolk2.2Essex2.2West Midlands1.7Berkshire1.5Total52,434.10Source: The Duchy of Cornwall's 2023 annual report
Do you have a story that needs highlighting? Get in touch by emailing josiah@bylinetimes.com
Homelessness in Yellowknife
Here’s a ‘top 7’ summary of my recent book chapter on homelessness in Yellowknife:
Responding to homelessness in Yellowknife: Pushing the ocean back with a spoon
Homelessness in Yellowknife
Here’s a ‘top 7’ summary of my recent book chapter on homelessness in Yellowknife:
Responding to homelessness in Yellowknife: Pushing the ocean back with a spoon
London Council Breaches Human Rights Law After Subjecting Asylum Seeker to Degrading Treatment
A local authority has been found in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) after it subjected an asylum seeker to degrading treatment for a period of at least seven months.
A High Court judge ruled at the end of last month that Croydon Council breached Article 3 and 8 of the ECHR, under the Care Act 2014, in what is believed to be the first ruling in such a case where these duties overlap.
This is because the ECHR breaches were in response to how Croydon performed its Care Act 2014 duties in failing to assess the asylum seeker’s "accommodation-related" needs and failing to provide suitable accommodation for him and his family.
Garden Court Chambers (GCC) represented the claimant, named only as TMX, and were instructed by Monica Kreel of TV Edwards Solicitors.
In a release GCC said: “The lengthy and detailed judgment provides helpful guidance on the complex interplay between the obligations of a local authority under the Care Act [2014], and the obligations of the Secretary of State for the Home Department under Section 95 of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999.”
“It is also a rare example of a local authority being found in breach of Article 3 ECHR for its failure to comply with its duties to provide care and support, including accommodation.
“As far as we are aware, it is the first time that a local authority has been found in a reported judgment to be in breach of Article 3 ECHR by reason of a failure to perform its duties under the Care Act [2014].”
Articles 3 and 8 of the ECHR are aimed at ensuring “no one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment”, and that “everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence”.
So the question before Mr Alan Bates, sitting as Deputy High Court Judge, was this: “Where an asylum seeker’s physical or mental condition is such that they have accommodation-related care needs, who is responsible for providing the accommodation for that person? Is it the local authority responsible under the Care Act 2014, or does responsibility lie with the Secretary of State under Section 95 of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999?”
The Claimant’s Case
TMX is a 50-year-old asylum seeker whose claim remains outstanding. He has progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) and functional neurological disorder. He also suffers from severe and varied nerve pain – called paraesthesia – and also has strong muscle spasms. He has described the pain he experiences as “agonising” and is a wheelchair user who cannot mobilise independently.
From June 2022, he had been accommodated by the Home Office under Section 95 of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999 in one ensuite bedroom in an asylum hotel facility in the Croydon area. That single bedroom was shared with his wife and their two children.
GCC described this as “manifestly unsuitable” due to it being on the fourth floor as the lift could only just fit his wheelchair in and could not take him all the way back down to street level.
At the same time, the building had steps at the front and the platform lift was “out of order the majority of the time”, meaning TMX was in effect confined to the building, and at significant risk in event of fire.
GCC explained: “The bedroom was too small for him to store and use his disability-related equipment. The bathroom was inaccessible and did not have adapted toilet/shower facilities. The lack of space for him to mobilise using equipment meant he was bedbound.”
“The room was badly ventilated, and TMX would become unbearably hot in the summer months, exacerbating his MS symptoms. The room afforded TMX no privacy from his children for his personal care. His children had to look away, or wait in the communal hallway when his wife provided his personal care as he lay in bed.”
TMX’s case comes after the Byline Times as previously reported how 75% of councils have logged complaints about the conditions of asylum seeker accommodation, at a time when the Government had tabled plans to remove their ability to investigate those complaints.
In April last year, it was revealed that the Government planned to “legalise” ‘hazardous’ accommodation for asylum seekers by exempting refugee housing from licensing rules for homes of multiple occupations (HMOs).
HMO licences are one of the primary ways authorities ensure homes filled with large numbers of people they were not initially designed to fit aren’t a fire risk, dangerously overcrowded, damp, mouldy, or otherwise unsafe.
However, the Home Office has in the last week cancelled plans to remove housing protections for asylum seekers after a judicial review was brought by a number of claimants. It said: “It is longstanding government policy that we do not routinely comment on individual cases.
“If an individual does not have the right to be in the UK, we will make every effort to return to their country of origin or a safe third country.”
The Home Office did not respond to a request for a comment on TMX’s case.
The High Court Ruling
During the hearing, there was no dispute that TMX had eligible needs for care and support under the Care Act 2014, and a care package was in place at all relevant times. Indeed, Croydon’s own assessments acknowledged the unsuitability of the accommodation.
Where there was clarity needed was in the fact that while it was Croydon which was in fact accommodating TMX, the unsuitable property was provided by the Home Office. But on this point the court found in TMX’s favour, which was that the responsibility lies with the local authority.
In handing down his detailed judgment, Mr Bates explained: “The council should, when assessing the claimant’s needs for care and support including accommodation-related needs, have ignored any current or potential provision of accommodation for him under Section 95 [of the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999].”
Having found that the council was responsible for accommodating TMX and his family, the judge went on to consider whether, by failing to provide suitable accommodation to him, had breached Article 3 and 8 of the ECHR.
He added: “I am satisfied that the claimant’s remaining in unsuitable accommodation interfered with his physical and psychological integrity to a high degree comparable to the level crossing the severity threshold for breaching Article 3.
“I have so found essentially because his remaining in that accommodation has been a ‘but for’ cause of various impacts on him which are intimately connected with the concept of ‘private life’ for the purposes of Article 8.
“Those impacts have, in my judgment, substantially prevented him from: (a) pursuing any meaningful personal development, and (b) developing relationships with other human beings and the outside world save for his immediate family with whom he lives.”
Monica Kreel, TMX’s solicitor from TV Edwards, said: "This is a fantastic judgment for our client and for other disabled asylum seekers. The High Court has recognised that Croydon Council, in ignoring our client’s dire accommodation and refusing to resolve the situation when it had a duty to do so, breached his Article 3 and 8 rights. He has now, finally, been moved to a small flat where he is receiving his care with dignity. "
For its part, Croydon said it has accepted the High Court ruling and apoligised to TMX. A spokesperson added: “Our resident was being housed by the Home Office in line with 2018 Home Office guidance for asylum seekers with care needs.
“Despite our attempts to provide the best possible social care, it is now clear that the unsuitable accommodation was a barrier to this. We are sorry that our resident had to go through the courts to get this outcome and we will of course be taking on board lessons from this case in our work with other residents.”