Ethics

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Netanyahu’s bluff has been called

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 08/05/2024 - 5:34pm in

The FT neatly summarised the situation in Gaza this morning, using this headline:

Benjamin Netanyahu’s dilemma: save the hostages or his government

The essence of the article is quite simple, and obviously true.

Hamas has offered Israel all the hostages it still holds back. The demand Netanyahu made that won him domestic support can be met now. There is no need for any more violence in Gaza, not that I think any of it could have been justified on the scale at which it has been waged, without the slightest consideration for innocent casualties.

But, if Netanyahu accepts this offer the extremists in his government will say that he has failed to defeat Hamas, and they will bring his government down. Then he might well have to finally face justice for so many of his actions, including war  crimes. That, he does not want to do.

So, Netanyahu has revealed his real self. The hostages were only ever an excuse, however inappropriate and straightforwardly wrong the actions of Hamas were in seizing them. Instead, the destruction of the Palestinian state and the driving of millions from Gaza was his goal. This is now very obvious.

So, where is the condemnation of Israel’s action now that Hamas has exposed the fact that Netanyahu is not pursuing a policy that anyone can remotely justify? I am not hearing it from our national and international leaders who should be calling Netanyahu’s actions out now. And that is very troubling because they no longer have any credible claim left to make by saying that they are supporting Israel’s right to defend itself. Instead they are now supporting genocide by a government, not a state. And that is always, unambiguously, a crime, which I think is taking place.

Since Reeves and the Tories have a shared economic DNA, how different can she ever be?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 08/05/2024 - 4:32pm in

The FT has an article this morning, of which the headlines are as follows:

Are Labour and the Conservatives adopting ‘Heevesian’ economics?

_________

The policies of the chancellor and his opposite number are looking increasingly alike

As the article notes:

Rachel Reeves, Britain’s shadow chancellor, on Tuesday declared to a City audience that “stability is change”, vowing that Labour would break from the “chaos” of recent Conservative economic policymaking.

But while Reeves’s reference point is Liz Truss’s self-destructing, unfunded “mini” Budget in 2022, economists note that some of the “stability” she is offering comes from a growing alignment of Labour and Tory policy.

How long did it tale for them to notice is the most obvious question to ask?

If Reeves agrees with Hunt about this long lost of policy issues, how likely is it that they might differ on anything significantly:

  • That neoliberalism is right.
  • The Bank of England must be independent and monetary policy should be beyond the Chancellor's control.
  • That fiscal rules are paramount.
  • National debt as a proportion of GDP must fall.
  • Banks and the City are intermediaries and not creators of money.
  • Markets are supreme.
  • Multiplier effects are limited.
  • Austerity is an appropriate trade-off for 'stability' that appeases financial power.

I could go on and on. The point is, once you have a shared economic DNA, how different will you ever be?

Reeves is dedicated to perpetauting Tory economic policy, but the FT has only just noticed. That's just about the only news in the article. Some of us have known that for a long time.

Where now for politics that matters?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun, 05/05/2024 - 4:42pm in

‘Ben’ Couchen succeeded for the Tories, but with the aid of unrepeatable bungs from central government.

‘Andy’ Street failed, if only just, in the West Midlands.

‘Rishi’ Sunak is universally acknowledged as a political disaster who is bound to fail.

There is no one else.

All the attempts to brand the Tories as anything but what they really are - a nasty, openly racist, far-right party with contempt for the majority of people - are failing. The adherence to a culture of indifference to people, the planet, and anything that matters to a person who can think about more than money, has destroyed this party.

What now? Can it recover? Should it recover? And if so, what as, and what should it espouse?

Even if it did, should the twenty per cent or so of its true believers ever again have the right to control the political narrative of a country where most are repulsed by what the Tories think?

And to where should that majority look for ideas when it is clear that Labour is almost as bereft of them, which is the only thing that might still give remaining Tories hope?

Where now for politics that matters in other words?

Seeking to answer that question is why this blog exists, is my best answer.

What will make politicians notice climate change?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 03/05/2024 - 4:15pm in

I often wonder when it will be that climate change will create pivot points that have sufficiently deep social and economic consequences that politicians will finally be required to take note, and pursue serious action.

Curiously, the collapse of Humza Yousaf’s  government in Scotland is an early indication that failure to properly manage issues relating to climate change targets will have political consequences. His departure from office is the result of his failure to manage this issue. I do not, however, think that sufficient warning to create a widespread reaction, as yet.

There are, however, issues on the horizon that make it look like such reactions might be possible. For example, it is forecast that there will be a significant increase in cocoa prices very soon as a result of a twenty per cent decline in the likely world crop, almost entirely due to climate change, with the impact arising over the next year or so.

Coffee prices are already increased for the same reason.

In addition, the wheat crop is expected to be 20% down in the UK this year with unknown price consequences as yet because this may not be true worldwide.

There can be no doubt that other yields are increasingly at risk. The obvious risk is to vulnerable people because of rising food prices, to everyone because of potential inflationary risks that no amount of interest rate increases will address, and ultimately to the viability of life on earth as we currently know it if this trend continues and we are unable to feed people. At some point the risk of major involuntary migrations is also possible as a consequence.

Will this be enough to require change from governments? And if not, what will be?

Advertising is designed to make you miserable

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 02/05/2024 - 4:45pm in

I posted this video on YouTube this morning:

In case the link does not work for you, it can be found here.

The transcript is as follows:

Advertising is meant to make you unhappy. That is its single sole objective.

The whole of the advertising industry exists to make you feel inadequate. Isn't that obvious? What it's trying to tell you all the time is that whatever you have, however well off you feel, you could feel better off if only you had whatever it is they're trying to flog to you.

You need the latest iPhone.

You need to go on holiday, wherever they're saying.

You need to buy this financial product.

You will be insecure unless you buy their insurance. Whatever it might be, they are trying to make you feel as though there's a better world over there, which you didn't even know existed until they blasted it in front of your screen, onto your radio, or wherever else you might see it.

And the fact is that most of the time you don't need any of that stuff because you were already feeling okay before this happened. And they have tried to undermine your well-being by creating a sense of dissatisfaction with where you were. Now, that's really important because this process of making you feel inadequate does of course drive our material growth.

When we look at the whole of the fashion industry, it is of course effectively driven by advertising, continually presenting us with different images of how we want to look. But the consequence is we have vast quantities of clothing now being sent to landfill sites, clogging up not just this country but because we export a lot of that waste to many developing countries as well.

We have waste in the form of excess energy because we're trying to buy all these new products and throwing away perfectly workable ones.

And perhaps worst of all, we're all - well, not all of us, but a lot of us - are getting into debt to actually buy these products because there is a form of pernicious agreement between the advertisers, the producers and the finance industry that whenever you buy something, you will be offered credit to make payment for it - keeping you in debt and therefore in hock to the finance companies, the banks, and so on of this country and elsewhere.

You are therefore not only meant to be miserable because you haven't got what you want, but you're also meant to be in debt, forcing you to stay on the treadmill to buy more of the product, the service, whatever it is they're trying to sell.

Is that a wise way to run an economy? Personally, I don't think so. I believe we have to change if we're going to become sustainable. And the quickest and easiest way to achieve that goal is to say that advertising is not a universally good thing. Most of it isn't. In fact, except for the small ads in newspapers, I can't think of anything that is.

So, we should stop tax relief being provided on expenditure by large companies on advertising and we should stop them being able to reclaim VAT on the advertising costs charged to them by those who broadcast these things.

Are there consequences? Yes. It will change the way that we see and consume media. I have no doubt about that. We have to, therefore, rethink that issue.

But the world will be a better place because there'll be less waste, we'll be more sustainable, and, ultimately, we will be happier because we won't be told all the time by everything we see and hear that we are inadequate.

Labour Party? Pull the other one….

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 01/05/2024 - 6:18pm in

It is, of course, May Day. Or Workers Day. And so, the FT reports this morning that:

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is set to unveil a weakened package of workers’ rights in the coming weeks in its latest softening of radical policies ahead of the upcoming general election, the Financial Times has learnt.

They added:

The package, first outlined in 2021, has been billed by Starmer as the biggest increase in workers’ rights for decades, with the Labour leader warning business chiefs in February it would “not please everyone in the room”.

But behind the scenes shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of the pledges to ease employer misgivings as the party tries to boost its pro-business credentials.

So, there goes another one of the very few identifiably left of centre policies Labour was promoting, and all to appease the business community.

Labour Party? Pull the other one....

Inflation always goes away

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 01/05/2024 - 4:59pm in

I posted this video on YouTube this morning:

In case the link does not work, you can watch the video here.

This is the transcript:

Inflation always goes away. Now, that's an extraordinary claim to make, but I can show you it.

This chart, produced by an American central bank called the St. Louis Fed - which always produces amazing economic statistics for those who want to look at such things - is actually a reproduction of research undertaken by the Bank of England, which shows the inflation figures in the UK since before 1200. I don't mean before midday. I mean literally from 1200, 800 years ago.

What you see is that the chart shoots up and downwards in the early eras on the left hand side, and gradually it tapers down so that these days we have much smaller oscillations when it comes to inflation.

The peaks are smaller than they used to be, and there are almost no negative troughs, i.e. we don't have periods of deflation in this country now. But the critical point I want you to note is, that after any inflation spike, there's a downturn.

Now historically, that downturn was almost invariably a period of deflation. In other words, real prices fell.

Now that, in the last century or so, is not the case. After a period of inflation, real price. changes fall, but prices don't go back to where they were. So, over the last century or so, we've had a period of steadily rising prices. But it's still true that after any period of inflation, really quite quickly, excepting periods of world war, prices return to relatively low levels of inflation.

And the critical point to note is that all that happened when we didn't really have a central bank who did anything whatsoever to control inflation.

The Bank of England might have been created in 1694, but it didn't get a mandate to control inflation until 1998. So, for the vast majority of the time that that chart was being plotted, there was no central bank raising interest rates, trying to control inflation, setting a 2 percent target, or any of that other nonsense that Governors of the Bank of England now talk about.

And yet inflation went away, anyway. And that's because markets always correct for the panics that create inflation in the first place.

Inflation is almost always created by a panic. There's a shortage caused by plague, pestilence, war, you name it, something's gone on in the world. Trade has broken down, and therefore there's a shortage and prices go up.

Once we get over the panic, we realise that actually the world did not end as everybody thought it would.

Remember the toilet roll crisis of March 2020 everyone went out and bought toilet rolls as if there were never going to be any available ever again. Well, it's exactly that sort of panic multiplied by an enormous factor that creates the shortages in world markets when a big event like the outbreak of war happens and market traders panic and try to buy things as if there will never be wheat, oil, gas, fertilizer, or anything ever again.

There were toilet rolls after March 2020. There has been oil, gas, wheat, fertilizer, and everything else since March 2020. The prices, once the traders realised that they had simply panicked inappropriately, went back to normal. They didn't necessarily go back to the price that they were in March 2020, but they certainly returned to a very normal level.

Inflation went away.

We did not need interest rate rises.

We did not need austerity.

We did not need the Bank of England telling us that none of us would do a pay rise.

We did not need them to say to the government that they should not be spending because they had to pay interest - extra interest - instead.

No. We just needed to wait for the markets to stop panicking. But instead, we had the Bank of England doing something quite different. They put in place policies that were designed to exploit the situation where inflation had started so that the wealthy became wealthier because money was moved from most ordinary people who pay interest to those who have very large sums on deposit.

That, again, is something we do not need again. Inflation goes away. It's a lesson we have to learn. And until the bankers do that, frankly, we shouldn't be giving them any power over our economies at all. Because they use that power wholly inappropriately and against the public interest.

On university protests

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 30/04/2024 - 6:17pm in

Tags 

Ethics, Politics

Robert Reich wrote this a few days ago. I share it because I think it wholly appropriate to do so, and that his words were wise:

Let’s be clear about a few things.

Antisemitism should have no place in America — not on college campuses or anywhere else.

But there is nothing inherently antisemitic about condemning the ongoing bloodshed in Gaza that has so far killed at least 34,000 people, mostly women and children.

Protesting this slaughter is not hate speech. It is what should be done on a college campus — taking a stand against a perceived wrong, at least provoking discussion and debate.

The mission of a university is to coach students how to learn, not tell them what to think. Peaceful demonstrations should be encouraged, not shut down. And having armed police arrest peaceful student demonstrators is never acceptable.

His Substack is worth subscribing to - and there is a free version.

The Premier League is an oligopolist erecting effective barriers to market entry. What is anyone going to do about it?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 29/04/2024 - 4:32pm in

As the Guardian notes this morning, this is the current state of the UK's football premier league:

There is, I promise, good economic reason for noting this.

The bottom three clubs in the league will be relegated at the end of the season, which is now just three games away. And it so happens that all three of those clubs now facing the likelihood of relegation were promoted from the second-tier league, the Championship, just one year ago. After a single season in the top flight of English football, they will very likely be returning whence they came.

The economic point that I am making is a very simple one. As is apparent to anyone who follows football, the English Premier League acts like an oligopoly. In other words, the well-established clubs within it make sure that it is organised to their advantage. They do, as a result, collect vastly more revenue than anyone else in the football. Their players are remunerated at extraordinary levels that would be exceptionally difficult to justify without this oligopoly power. In economic parlance, they earn rents on top of any reasonable level of reward they should enjoy. And, as is all too commonly the case when oligopoly exists, there are massive barriers to entry into this market, as the likely relegation of all three clubs that were promoted into it last year makes abundantly clear.

The current UK government has suggested that the UK needs a football regulator. I agree. One of the things that it needs to do is to control the abuse of market principles by the most powerful football clubs in the country. I am not anticipating that any such thing will happen. The idea that fair competition might prevail is, I think, very unlikely to win the support of those who might lose out as a result.

Freedom from fear

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 25/04/2024 - 5:17pm in

I posted this video on YouTube this morning:

The transcript is as follows:

Freedom from fear is one of the things that every politician should seek to provide. And I don't think it's a priority for any politician, from the major parties at least, in the UK at present. And that, to me, is incredibly worrying.

Freedom from fear was one of the four fundamental freedoms that US President Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Second World War leader of the USA, outlined in a speech in 1941, not that long before the US joined the Second World War. He said there were four fundamental freedoms. The freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear. Fear, to me, is, however, the most important of all of those because if you don't have freedom from fear, well, that's probably because you don’t have one of the others. So, it's the overarching need that we as humans have, to live free from fear.

And yet we have governments that tell us unless we comply, we will be punished. How? Look, right now, our current Conservative government is saying to people who have mental health issues, unless you stop your anxiety, unless you deal with your fears, unless you go back to work, even though you are incapacitated, we will punish you financially.

We've had the bedroom tax.

We have the idea that benefits are a scourge on society, even though that's clearly untrue. There are people who need them, and it's darn hard to get them.

What we need is a society where we let people prosper, where we provide them with the hope that they can fulfill, not the fear that they will fail.

And those two approaches are fundamentally different. One is about the politics of aspiration. The other is about the politics of oppression.

I'm all for aspiration. I'm all for hope. I'm all for people fulfilling their potential. I loathe those politicians who want to crack big whips and hard sticks over us.

For me, carrots work and what's more, carrots should be provided to everyone because everybody has something to offer in a society.

We need to live free of fear and that means our major political parties have to change their entire attitude towards the way in which they govern because right now they don't believe in it.

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