Economics

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Why is there no capital gains tax charge on houses?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 22/04/2024 - 5:06pm in

I posted this video on YouTube this morning:

The transcript is:

Why is there no capital gains tax charge on private houses in the UK? It's a question that's entirely fair to ask because we've all got so used to the fact that people who own their own homes don't pay capital gains tax when they sell them. We just think it's normal, but it is in fact a tax exemption and it is an incredibly costly exemption - the second most costly exemption in the entire UK tax system. In fact, costing in excess of £30 billion a year in the estimate of HM Revenue and Customs.

So, is it a good exemption? Does it achieve a useful outcome? Could we do something different?

Is it a good exemption? Well, yes, to an extent. Why do I say yes to an extent? Because we would have difficulties if we charged capital gains tax - that is the tax on the increase in the value of a person's home between the time that they bought it and the time that they sold it - every time they wish to move during their life, particularly if those moves were required, for example, by the need to change jobs. We don't want people to be stuck in a location because they can't afford to move because they can't pay the tax on selling one property before buying one in another location where their work is available. So, there is a real problem with charging capital gains tax on people's capital gains arising on the sale of their homes during their lives.

But, should we end up with a situation where, as a result, a lot of people - people of my sort of age, with my sort of hair colour -  are sitting on a lot of private wealth based upon the fact that they bought their own homes when they were relatively young - which was easy when I was knocking around in my 20s - and now appear to be very wealthy through nothing that they ever earned but by the chance or fortune that they bought a house when they were young.

No, that is not fair. And it's not fair because it concentrates wealth in their hands and in the hands of the children who they can pass that wealth on to. So, we do need to tax this more than we are at present, which is by inheritance tax, which only falls on about 5 per cent of all estates in the UK?

We should be charging capital gains tax on every final disposal by a person or their spouse or their civil partner at the time that the last of those two ceases to use that property, whether that's either because they die, on the second death, or because they move into a nursing home or whatever else, or both of them quit the country and move abroad. Whatever the reason, on the last disposal of a property without there being a reinvestment, which if both are dead there couldn't be, then there should be capital gains tax charged on the whole of the lifetime gain that they've made.

That would be fair. It would collect serious amounts of tax. I reckon at least £10 billion a year at present, rising over time as more and more properties come within the scope of the charge.

And it would also put downward pressure on house prices - which would be good news - while also requiring that properties be sold, which would open up the market to more people who could come into it.

All in all, a win.

But we have to do such a change with care because we can't stop people moving during their lifetimes.

There is more on this in section 8.4 of the Taxing Wealth Report 2024.

We need a better song to sing

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 22/04/2024 - 4:28pm in

The Guardian features an interview by John Harris with Caroline Lucas MP this morning.

I’ve known Caroline for almost twenty years now. We are both members of the Green New Deal Group that created the concept of that name, and still works on it.

In the interview reference is made to Caroline’s new book, out last week (and I have not read it as yet). The most telling paragraph is:

[The] book … comes close to suggesting that the left should adopt a completely new mindset. “It’s not enough to have technocratic answers,” she insists. “You’ve got to speak to people’s emotions and tell compelling stories. And I don’t think we on the left are very good at doing that. And so part of this is about reclaiming the power of story and saying that the right must not have complete carte blanche when it comes to choosing the stories to tell about England. Unless we get on the pitch and start telling our own, we lose a way of reaching people that is incredibly resonant and important.”

I completely agree. I describe this as there being the need to find a new song to sing.

Reeves, et al, might think the election can be won by citing fiscal rules, privatisation plans and tweaks they will make. But all of those accept that the existing political narratives will continue unbroken. They can’t. They have to change, because people know they no longer work. That is glaringly obvious, it seems, to everyone but the supposed grown-ups in the room, who are working like fury to deny it.

When will Labour get that? Not ever at their current rate. And that explains the mess we are in. Until we have a better song to sing that explains the world as it not only is but reconciles it with how we think it must be (because there are constraints, most especially in the form of climate, in the real world) then we cannot have hope. And very few politicians are delivering that right now.

Plain words

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 22/04/2024 - 3:58pm in

Some will have noted that the trolls were very active over the weekend, suggesting I had made a mistake in the video I put out on ’Welfare for the wealthy’. In it I said:

The interest rate went up from 0.1 per cent to 5.25 per cent. It's unusual for anybody to have earned 5.25 per cent on their deposits, of course, over that period. But real interest rates have risen from well under 1 percent in 2021 to over 4 percent still if you search around. In other words, the wealthy have benefited enormously from the welfare that has been provided to them by the Bank of England's benevolence, which is biased in their favour.

I thought that what I meant was unambiguously clear. My reference to ‘real’ interest rates referred to those actually on offer to real people in contrast to Bank of England base rates. It never occurred to me that anyone would interpret what I said in the context of the economic theory of ‘real’ interest rates, which compares those paid with the inflation rate.

I am, of course, familiar with that concept, much beloved by right-wing microeconomic fetishists who think the concept isat the forefront of the mind of all savers, none of whom should ever hold cash in their opinion because real rates, according to this theory, have been negative almost continuously since 2009 according to World Bank data.

Despite these people’s belief, in the real world , bank deposits remain as popular a mechanism for saving as ever and might have increased in value in real terms, just to prove that the claims of those rather desperate proponents of microeconomic theory are totally disconnected from the way real people actually behave.

I am only concerned in the videos I make, as well as in the posts here  (unless I make it very clear otherwise) with the economics of the real world. So, I use words with their normal usage as indicated by the context in which I use them. And if there are multiple meanings possible, then the right interpretation is invariably the one that common usage requires.

So why were the trolls so active? I think there could be two reasons. One is that the video series is proving very popular, especially on YouTube. That one has been viewed more than 9,000 times now, with a very high promotion watching it all the way through, which is rare on any video platform. Without any real narrative to address the issues I am raising of course they are being pedants.

The other is about framing.  They want debate on economics to be framed using the failed language and theories of the pseudo-science into which they have invested time and effort, even though it is very clearly incapable of explaining what is really going on in the world.

They are offended by my refusal to comply with their demand that I must frame things as they do, within the context of the rules that the lay down. I will not do that.

I will, instead, talk about what is very obviously happening in the real world where, for example,  real (nominal, paid, call them what you like, all terms refer to the sum actually paid) interest rates are very clearly distorting consumer behaviour patterns and spending power in favour of the wealthy, whatever their relationship with inflation. If they don’t like me noticing that because it offends their beliefs, tough luck. I do not share those beliefs. Nor do I think that much of their analysis stands up to scrutiny.

My delete button is going to see a lot of use if this trolling continues, because I am not going to bore people here with the nonsense these people talk.

Welfare for the wealthy

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 20/04/2024 - 5:11pm in

I posted this video on YouTube this morning:

The transcript is:

I am deeply offended by welfare for wealthy people.

Now I don't particularly like the term welfare because I think that ‘social security’ or ‘benefits’ are much better terms than welfare, but it happens to work quite nicely in the context of making payments to the wealthy that they don't deserve.

What payments am I talking about? Well, since 2021, the Bank of England has increased its base rate of interest from 0.1 per cent to 5.25 per cent. And as a consequence, as we all know, vast amounts of extra interest has been charged in the UK on those who have had to borrow.

Mortgage holders are paying more.

People who pay rent pay more because their landlords, by and large, have mortgages.

And we're also paying more for many products that have interest implicit within them. Car loans, for example.

On the other side of the equation - and there is always another side of the equation in economics - somebody is benefiting hands down. Who's benefiting? Well, the owners of the wealth on which interest is paid are benefiting.

The interest rate went up from 0.1 per cent to 5. 25 per cent. It's unusual for anybody to have earned 5.25 per cent on their deposits, of course, over that period. But real interest rates have risen from well under 1 percent in 2021 to over 4 percent still if you search around. In other words, the wealthy have benefited enormously from the welfare that has been provided to them by the Bank of England's benevolence, which is biased in their favour.

That means they have vastly more income available to them at present, whilst those who have had to borrow to live and those on lower income - those who are younger by and large - have had much less. This has had a serious economic impact. The wealthy are, in effect, of course, able to spend more right now and have still been fueling inflation, despite the Bank of England's efforts to increase interest rates to suppress inflation.

Counterintuitively, they have, in fact, even more cash to spend and, therefore, have the most impact upon inflation - the consequence being that inflation has not gone away as fast as was anticipated.

It's bizarre. We have literally created a system where inflation control doesn't work, interest rates don't achieve the desired outcome, but the rich get richer.

What a great surprise. And what a news story that is. A news story that's not being said on any of the mass media, which is why I thought I'd mention it here.

Labour has abandoned its environmental commitments. Is it any surprise that UK big business is following its lead?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 20/04/2024 - 4:35pm in

As the Guardian notes this morning:

Unilever is to scale back its environmental and social aims, provoking critics to say its board should “hang their heads in shame”.

They added:

On Friday, the London-based firm’s current chief executive appeared to signal a strategic U-turn for the company, which is valued at £94bn on the London Stock Exchange. In an interview with Bloomberg, Hein Schumacher confirmed plans to water down the company’s ethical pledges on a range of issues including plastic usage and pay.

There really can be no surprise here. Labour is expected to win the first term of what many will think likely to be at least a two term government this year. They have abandoned their green commitments and budgets. Why wouldn’t business do the same?

Rachel Reeves should take note. Her decisions and smooching around the City have consequences. It is by no means clear that they are good.

Is foreign policy a reason for Scotland to leave the Union?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 20/04/2024 - 4:19pm in

I have my regular weekly column in the National newspaper this morning.

In it I discuss the potential consequences of the SNP government in Scotland having already created a quite successful, internationally recognised, foreign policy with regards to Gazza that is distinctly different from that being adopted by the government in London.

The implications of Scotland having an identifiably separate foreign policy from the rest of the UK are quite significant.

Firstly, it aligns Scotland with states like Ireland and Spain, which are calling for a ceasefire by all parties in Gazza.

Secondly, it also has implications for the entirely different priorities that the UK and Scottish governments will have. As I noted in the article:

A state that promotes peace does not spend as much of its national resources on as much weaponry or on so many armed forces as one that wishes to pursue war. In contrast, a state that wishes to pursue peace will spend more on diplomacy, overseas missions, representation at the United Nations and on the supply of relief for those caught up in conflict.

These are fundamental differences of emphasis that flow from differing approaches to foreign policy and the pursuit of armed aggression.

It is, of course, the case that as things stand the Scottish parliament cannot prevent the UK government spending as as it wishes with regard to the conflict in the Middle East, or anywhere else. However, the greater the apparent social divide between Scotland and the rest of the UK, the more obvious the demand for independence will be.

If, as I think likely based upon the opinion that I see and hear, people in Scotland really do think differently on this issue from the main parties’ politicians in Westminster then the chance that this independent approach to foreign policy will create another basis for the call for independence is, I think, very real, although I have not seen it widely debated. That is precisely why I made the case for that discussion to take place in the National.

Rishi Sunak is to blame for the inability of millions to work

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 20/04/2024 - 3:26pm in

Rishi Sunak has launched am attack on what he calls ‘the sick note culture’. I am, quite frankly, appalled.

Sunak is one of the richest men in the country. He has admitted that his family uses a private GP, let alone private healthcare for more complicated issues.

He is protected by privilege and wealth from the stresses that impact millions of people in the UK.

The possibility that a person might suffer stress as a consequence of their inability to work out where their child’s next meal might come from, or how they might keep a roof over their head, or how they might provide childcare when they go to their third job, which they have to take to meet the extraordinary increases in the cost of living imposed upon them by the Bank of England, or that they might be racked with guilt about their simple inability to provide for those about whom they care, is, I am quite certain, beyond his comprehension.

More than that, I doubt that he has even thought about the need to imagine it. In that case, of course he cannot see why those things that he calls the ‘ordinary stresses and strains’ of life might become, in themselves, totally incapacitating. It takes callousness on a considerable scale for anyone in his position to describe them as such, but that is what he has done.

Worse than that, fourteen years of Tory rule have created the healthcare crisis that we have.

Let’s leave aside the underfunding of the NHS, where funds provided have been insufficient to ensure that demand, not least for mental health services, can be met.

Let’s also leave aside the deliberate attack on the credibility and work ethic of NHS staff since 2021, in which he has played such a major role. Instead, let me just draw attention to other critical factors.

First, there is Covid. Sunak is a key player in the collective denial of the impact of this disease by his government and its predecessors since Boris Johnson decided to claim that its impact had effectively ceased from 2021 onwards.

That claim is complete nonsense. Not only do lots of people still get Covid, but it is as debilitating as ever, in many cases significantly threatening health well-being.

Covid is also a major secondary health risk. Increases in related illnesses, and in particular cardiac-related disease, are significant. The government is trying to pretend that none of this is happening.

Nor are they taking necessary action. For example,they are still doing nothing to provide a guarantee of clean air which is a precondition of good health. It could do that. Moreover, it has been shown that if it did so in school classrooms, where the spread of this disease is so easy, not only would we get major healthcare benefits, but the rate of learning amongst children would increase dramatically, improving education performance across the board. But his government does nothing, because it does not care.

Secondly, the age to which people are expected to work is now increasing. I might be in the fortunate position of being in good health and able to work to the capacity that I have delivered for many years at nominal retirement age, but I am well aware that this really is not normal. Vast numbers of people from their 50s onwards struggle with all sorts of well-being issues related to health that reduce their capacity to work, and too many employers know this and refuse to provide opportunity for those of older age.

Third, Sunak’s government has done nothing whatsoever to address the crises of diabetes, where the type two variant of this disease is entirely treatable. However, that is only possible if major changes in diet are made. This does, in particular, require dramatic reduction in the intake of sugar among the population as a whole, and a significant reduction in the consumption of ultra-processed foods. There is, nothing that could increase health in this country more than doing that, reducing both obesity related illnesses and type two diabetes hospital admissions as a result. Despite this, and despite the fact that this has been known for a very long time, his government has absolutely refused to address this problem. Instead, his health secretary is actually married to the boss of British Sugar. You could hardly make that up.

Then there is the assault on employment rights that this government encouraged. Its goal of a so-called ‘flexible workforce’ has been achieved at the cost of an enormous increase in insecurity for the majority of people in the country, who have suffered a reduction in their economic security as a consequence, giving rise to an increase in their stress. This now seems to have transferred into a widespread inability to work, so disabling is it.

There are, I am sure, other factors in play. But, these are sufficient to make it clear that if there is a responsibility for sickness in the UK then that belongs to Rishi Sunak and his predecessors and his colleagues in office since 2010. There is, quite literally, no one else to blame.

Cutting-edge macroeconomics …

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 19/04/2024 - 7:59pm in

Tags 

Economics

No sooner had I finished my comment on the irrelevancy of economics but I had confirmation — albeit unwittingly — in this morning’s Financial Times.  There on the editorial page was a short column by Soumaya Keynes talking about the rise of Hank. For those of you not on the cutting edge, “Hank” stands for […]

Why is there no national insurance on income from wealth in the UK?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 19/04/2024 - 5:19pm in

I have just posted this video on YouTube:

The link is here in case it is needed.

The transcript is:

Why is there no national insurance on investment income in the UK?

I can't explain that. If you work for a living, and most people watching this video will probably either have worked for a living before they're retired or will be working for a living now, you pay national insurance on your earnings.

Quite a lot of national insurance, in fact. Jeremy Hunt has reduced the rate to 8 per cent for most people at present, but it's still a significant additional to your tax.

However, if you live off rent, or if you live off dividends from companies, or interest on savings, or distributions from trusts that might be made to you by your benevolent great aunt Agatha, or on capital gains that you make on the profit from sale of assets - if you live off any of those things - you won't pay national insurance, because It doesn't apply to investment earnings.

So, as a result, people who have to live off earnings from employment pay a much higher overall rate of tax than do people who live off investment income.

Now, that makes no sense at all. In fact, for decades, we tried to make sure that the reverse was true. Then employment had a more favourable tax rate than income from investment did.

But we've reversed that and in the UK now we have this amazing situation where we have a bias in the tax system towards income from wealth.

We could solve that. It would be incredibly simple. If we charge what is called an investment income surcharge on income from investments, rents, dividends, etc., and we charge it at 15%, which would provide an approximation to both the employer's and the employee's rate of national insurance, which is overall paid on earned income, then we would create a level playing field between earned and unearned income.

And those with unearned income would have to pay a lot more tax.

If it was charged on income from unearned sources in excess of £5,000 a year, excluding pensioners who would be let off this charge, then we could raise £18 billion a year to redistribute inside the UK tax system to relieve poverty or to provide the investment we need in public services.

So why don't we do it? I don't know because it would be fundamentally fair if we did.

And please accept an apology: the last slide should say £18bn and not £10bn. We are still learning how to quality check these videos.

There is more on this in the Taxing Wealth Report 2024, section 6.2.

The Bank of England does not care

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 19/04/2024 - 5:06pm in

This tweet was published by the Equality Trust (whose work I recommend) yesterday:

The overwhelmingly clear message is that the rate of inflation for those on lower incomes - many of whom will be private renters - is much higher than the reported rate of inflation for the UK as a whole.

The reasons are clear. First of all, the rate of inflation on essential items like food remains above CPI as a whole, as Office for National Statistics data makes clear.

Second, and as I noted here this week,  rents are currently rising at a rate equivalent to the overall rate of inflation suffered by those living in private accommodation i.e. by in excess of 9 per cent at present.

There is one organisation to blame for this horrid and unjustified as well as unjustifiable resulting increase in inequality in the UK, and that is the Bank of England, whose interest rate policies directly impact rental housing costs and so the increasing poverty of those who live in it.

I am unapologetic for being angry about this. The policymakers of the Bank of England live in considerable comfort and security. Their salaries guarantee that. So does the extraordinarily generous Bank pension scheme. Apparently, they cannot see beyond that enclave of privilege in which they live, let alone care about the impact of what their policy has on those least able to cope. Nothing excuses that.

 

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