Unemployment

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In pandemic times, the unemployment rate is not what it seems

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 15/03/2021 - 12:47am in

Interpreting job market statistics demands a lot of care right now. The pandemic has muddied the statistical waters and created the illusion that unemployment rates are significantly higher in Canada than in other countries.

The leader of Canada’s official opposition claims the Canadian unemployment rate is higher than in other rich countries. Source: https://twitter.com/erinotoole/status/1367181227338264578?s=20

Erin O’Toole, with a sense of indignation and urgency, has boldly proclaimed that “We lead the G7 in unemployment.”

Statistics in the service of partisan politics are often, to put it gently, rather elastic in their meaning, so it is natural to wonder: do we really lead the pack in the dubious distinction of having the highest rate of unemployment?

Statistics Canada reported Friday that the unemployment rate stands at 8.2 per cent, a full two percentage points above that of the United States. As opposition leader Mr. O’Toole points out by citing the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, that’s higher than in many other rich countries.

But more care is needed to uncover the true meaning of these numbers, because the pandemic has twisted the workings of the statistical machinery that in normal times serves us well.

In fact, the OECD suggests that many comparisons be taken off the table. In a note on Employment and unemployment statistics during the COVID-19 crisis, it cautioned that, “the unprecedented impact of Covid-19 … affects the cross-country comparability of unemployment statistics.”

In many European countries, people who have been temporarily laid off — those who have lost their jobs but have an expectation of being recalled — are counted as employed.

The Canadian and American statistical agencies do just the opposite, counting them as unemployed. This difference in methods usually doesn’t amount to much, except of course during the pandemic, when the number of temporarily laid-off shot to the stratosphere.

In other words, the OECD is saying that its off-the-shelf statistics currently come with a warning label: use with caution, particularly across the Atlantic divide. So, claiming that Canada stands worst in the G7 is likely an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Canada – U.S. comparison

The other comparison that beckons is to the United States. The suggestion has been made that Canada scores poorly when compared to the unemployment rate south of the border.

The statistical agencies in the two countries use a number of rules of thumb to classify someone as “unemployed.” It is not just about being without a job. The unemployed are all those without paid work, and who at some point in the past month also looked for work.

But there is a consequential difference in how this official “unemployed” classification is determined.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics requires an American without paid work to do something to look for work, but it must be something that in principle would lead to a job offer. Directly contacting an employer or attending a job interview are among the activities that will do the trick.

Statistics Canada casts the net more widely to also capture those who just look at want-ads, check with a friend or relative, or engage in other activities that on their own wouldn’t lead to a concrete offer.

If Statistics Canada used the same measuring rod as its American counterpart, the Canadian unemployment rate would be almost one and half percentage points lower, cutting the two-percentage point gap between the two countries by more than half.

In February the gap between the Canadian and U.S. unemployment rates was no higher than it has been for the past decade and a half, and at least half of it reflects differences in statistical methods used to measure unemployment. (Click on image to enlarge.)

It is hard to see urgency in these numbers, as this gap, however measured, is not much different now than during 2015, or for that matter 2005.

Besides, Americans are actually questioning their official unemployment rate. Jerome Powell, the head of the Central Bank and arguably one of the world’s most powerful economic policy makers, has recently stressed that “published unemployment rates during COVID have dramatically understated the deterioration in the labor market.”

In part this is because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methods are not well suited to pandemic times, leading many jobless people to be misclassified as employed.

However, he also notes that millions of Americans feel the pandemic has prevented them from looking for work. So even if they very much want to work, they’re not officially unemployed under the U.S. rules because they’re not actively looking, some because no jobs are available, others because of worries about the virus, and others for child-care reasons.

Some economists have made calculations that suggest the “realistic unemployment rate” in the U.S. is 8.2 per cent. In Powell’s view the official unemployment rate, now standing at 6.2 per cent, should be upped even further to almost 10 per cent.

These adjustments put the American number well within the range of the Canadian, implying that there is not much difference between the rate in the two countries.

All this said, if the concern is about jobs, then the Canada-U.S. score card should be based on employment rates. This might be an easier apples-to-apples comparison.

In this case the cross-country patterns are not much different, and indeed there’s been a bit more improvement in Canada. Employment has certainly tanked, falling significantly and to the same degree in both countries, but the Canadian bounce-back from the lows of last April has been slightly quicker.

The number of employed Canadians has bounced back sharply since the start of the pandemic, and in February reached 97 per cent of the January 2020 employment level, a quicker recovery than in the United States. (Click on image to enlarge.)

The bottom line?

Canadians on average have been more hopeful that a job search will pay off, more likely and able to be looking for work, and hence more likely to be classified as unemployed than Americans. This, along with an understatement of the American unemployment rate, creates the illusion that Canada is doing worse.

Not at all the message the opposition leader has been sending, but somewhat closer to the true meaning of the statistics, elastic as that may be. The pandemic has muddied the statistical waters and demands more care in interpreting numbers that are usually easy to understand.

[ A version of this post was published as an Opinion article by the CBC on March 13th, 2021 with the heading “The pandemic has thrown a wrench into the statistical machinery that tracks job numbers.”  ]

Employment Insurance for the future of work, right now

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 10/03/2021 - 11:07am in

Tags 

Unemployment

This posts offers my written statement for a presentation made on February 23rd to the Canadian House of Commons, Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities as a part of its Review of the Employment Insurance Program.

 

Employment Insurance has been found wanting.

It has been found wanting for decades.

It was slow to respond to the Great Recession of 2018, and left many Canadians, particularly in central Canada, with poor and inadequate income insurance.

It was slow to respond to the collapse of commodity prices in 2014 that devasted the jobs and livelihoods of many Canadians, particularly in Alberta, leaving them with poor and inadequate income insurance.

And of course, it was slow to respond, indeed stalled almost completely, to the COVID pandemic, leaving all working Canadians, almost without regard to their station in life, with poor and inadequate income insurance.

But many Canadians have long been shut out or at best under-served by this crucial pillar of our social insurance system, a program that is solely under federal responsibility.

Workers in the arts and culture industries; self-employed workers; lower paid workers with intermittent jobs; quitters, new labour market entrants, the young as well as those in mid or late careers.

Employment Insurance has been found wanting, many Canadians have experienced that for decades, and now is well beyond the time to do something about it.

The government can proceed immediately with a series of important changes that are well within its administrative capacity, but it also must proceed with an eye to more fundamental changes in the near term that may require more consultation.

But before I outline these immediate-term and near-term possibilities, let me tell you what Canadians don’t need more of.

They don’t need more platitudes about getting a better education, getting more training. The EI program already transfers almost $3 billion to the provinces for programs of this sort, some are effective, some less so.

But the government doesn’t need to spend more money on training through EI, and putting more responsibility on individuals to adjust to the storms of a turbulent job market.

Canadians, in the first instance, need better and more complete income insurance. My suggestions are directed to this need.

Policies in the short term

Qualifying for benefits with the last ROE

Consider the reason for separation from only the last Record of Employment in a series used to support a new claim.

That is to say, the administration of the program should ignore the reasons in previous ROEs, and allow qualification if shortage of work was the reason for job separation in the most recent ROE.

Currently many workers in a precarious situation, trying to piece together jobs and incomes, find themselves falling into an administrative rabbit hole because past ROEs have been incorrectly completed by employers, or separations were worker-initiated.

Focusing on the reason for separation in just the last ROE used to support a claim will simplify a needlessly complicated process and offer real-time benefits.

Offer a “close to” uniform entrance requirement

There are 62 EI regions with the number of hours of work required to qualify for benefits determined by a region-specific unemployment rate: 420 hours of insured work, what would amount to 10 and a half weeks of full-time employment, are needed if the unemployment rate is more than 13% in your EI region, but 700 hours if it is 6% or lower, there being a total nine bands with unemployment rates ranging from under 6% to over 13% determining the required hours of work.

We tie narrowly defined regional unemployment rates so finely to EI eligibility because we treat the program as a regionally-based program of income support with some work conditions attached. This amounts to a Basic Income for many people living in regions east of the Ottawa River.

Laudable as this goal is, it has distorted the insurance function of Employment Insurance, it has excluded many Canadians from coverage, and it has slowed the response to big labour market shocks.

It means that a 0.1 percentage point change in the unemployment rate can change eligibility for the program. This level of precision amounts to letting statistical fog, not actual labor market changes, influence eligibility.

It also means that to reduce the statistical fog Statistics Canada relies on an average of the regional unemployment rates in the past three months. This further corrupts the ability of the program to respond quickly to sudden changes in the jobs market. Eligibility rules are hard-wired to be backward looking.

There have been long-standing calls for a uniform entrance requirement, and currently that is the case. A reasonable alternative is to reduce the current nine bands to just three bands, say: less than 6 percent, 6 to 10 percent, and greater than 10%. 

Increase the benefit rate and the maximum insurable earnings

The benefit rate is currently 55%, meaning that an EI claimant receives 55 cents for every dollar of insurable earnings. Historically this rate was 66 2/3rds %, but has varied from as high as 80% for certain categories of claimants to the current low.

Successive reforms during the 1980s and 1990s significantly cut the benefit rate. These cuts were often done in the name of deficit fighting and work incentives.

These past priorities don’t serve our present and future well.

It is both feasible and timely to raise the benefit rate and offer workers better insurance by covering more of their past earnings.

All this said, having roughly half of previous earnings covered is not the support that long-time contributors to the program facing the challenges of the future of work will expect.

To suggest that claimants have roughly half of their previous earnings replaced by EI benefits is to overstate things. Earnings are replaced by benefits up to the “Maximum Insurable Earnings,” which is currently an annual income of $56,300. Earnings above this threshold are not covered by EI.

Many employers have made dramatic changes in the hard and soft technology of how they manage, monitor, and motivate their workers, learning that working at home may disrupt productivity, but in many cases may do just the opposite if done right.

If that is the case, then how long before your boss starts asking, as The Financial Times recently put it: “If you can do your job anywhere, can anyone do your job?

Advances in communication technology may well lead to another wave of globalisation and contracting out, but this time moving past manufacturing into the service sector, impacting many white-collar workers. Many of them are relatively well-paid but they will likely be brought into head-to-head competition with equally skilled programmers, accountants, purchasing agents in other countries happy to work for a much lower wage.

Higher paid workers in service jobs will be confronted with the disruptions that workers in manufacturing jobs had to deal with during the first wave of globalization during the 1990s.

Increasing the maximum insurable earnings significantly above the average, and raising the benefit rate will offer workers more complete insurance and foster their sense of security in a more and more uncertain future.

These are quick and easy legislative changes the government can make without fuss, but others are needed to offer, as The Speech from the Throne promises, an Employment Insurance program for the 21st century.

Policies in the near term

Enhance coverage and step toward a basic income by integrating the Canada Workers Benefit with the EI program

The fact that only 40% of the unemployed qualify for Employment Insurance in the best of times, and the perception that the future of work will involve more contingency and precarity in work arrangements has led many to both question the eligibility rules of EI and its limited capacity to cover the self-employed, as well as to call for a basic income of some sort.

Not all of the self-employed should be covered by EI, and dividend income surely should not. Further, the gig economy is not, nor will it be, a terrible reality for many. But both self-employment and employment as an independent worker will increasingly become last ditch or supplemental means of support for many workers in precarious situations.

There is certainly a role for changes in regulatory policies and clarification of the class of workers, but income support and insurance policies can respond by focusing more on insuring incomes, rather than jobs, or particular classes of jobs.

The Canada Workers Benefit, in spite of recent enhancements, remains a relatively modest program. Individuals living on their own must have at least $3,000 in earned income to qualify for a maximum benefit of about $1,400 that is tied to their earnings, disappearing at net income above about $24,000.

The jobs used to earn this income, including self-employment do not necessarily lead to qualifying hours under EI.

I suggest that any income used to support receipt of the CWB be converted to EI eligible hours without regard to the nature of the job used to obtain that income. This will bring the self-employed that we might legitimately worry about into EI coverage, as well as others in contingent work.

If this committee were to consider recommending a considerable enhancement in the generosity of the Canada Workers Benefit, with an unconditional payment of $12,000 to $15,000 equivalent to the Deep Income Poverty Line, and a maximum benefit that would lift workers to the Official Poverty Line, then it will have taken two considerable steps forward.

It will offer a way of a significantly increasing the coverage of Employment Insurance for workers who need the insurance.

But it will also take a significant step in establishing a Basic Income for single workers and those without children who need the support, much in the way that the Canada Child Benefit and the OAS/GIS offer a basic income to families with children and older Canadians.

This is what I mean by integrating the Canada Workers Benefit with EI to enhance eligibility for groups that do not have insurable earnings.

Offer wage insurance to long seniority workers who are permanently laid off

An important change has in fact already been promised by the government in its election platform, and figures in Minister Qualtrough’s original mandate letter:

Create a new Career Insurance Benefit for workers who have worked for the same employer for five or more years and have lost their job as their employer ceases operation.

In fact, a version of this exists in Part II of the current EI program as the Targeted Wage Subsidy, but because it is poorly designed and directed to provinces, not to individuals, it has been terribly underused.

The Career Insurance Benefit is an important and very relevant change to Employment Insurance to address the future of work, enhancing regular benefits in a way that will offer insurance not just for the time spent in the search of a new job, but also for the income loss from taking a lower paying job.

This is a mild form of “wage insurance,” and will take an innovative step in making Employment Insurance more relevant for many workers, who may never have collected benefits in the past and are laid off from jobs that they have held for at least five years.

It involves paying benefits to laid-off workers after they have accepted a job. The benefit would cover some significant fraction of the difference between their current and past incomes, for some significant period of time.

The government should proceed with this reform, and indeed even enhance it and make it more significant than originally imagined.

Giving some workers strong wage insurance for an extended duration will offer them income security and help many long-tenure mid-career workers adjust to a future of lower pay.

Offer special benefits through individual accounts with maternity and parental benefits in a complementary family insurance program under the EI act

More than one out of every three dollars distributed through the Employment Insurance program are for so-called Special Benefits, those parts of the program associated with maternity and parental leave, with caregiving, and with sickness.

Constructive reform will require rationalization of coverage for demographic and family risks and should proceed in a way that recognizes both their collective and individual nature, with a delivery design that gives citizens agency in an incentive compatible way.

Governments have incrementally expanded coverage of special benefits according to perceived need, bad publicity, or political expediency, all the while layering on rules and regulations to ensure the public purse is not abused.

The most egregious example of the paternalism involved is the requirement that citizens – during one of the most stressful periods in their lives – produce a doctor’s note to attest to the fact that their loved one is on their deathbed.

All of this can be made more effective, more dignified, more simple by using personal accounts, designed in a way inspired by the three tiers of Canada’s retirement income system.

This can be best accomplished by delivering Special Benefits through individual accounts, while at the same time devising a new program for maternity and parental benefits outside Employment Insurance.

There is nothing revolutionary in any of these suggestions, they all build on past precedents that have been part of Employment Insurance, on current underused aspects of the program, or on proposals that have long been discussed.

I invite your questions, comments, and concerns.

You can watch the full meeting of the HUMA meeting no. 18, held on February 23rd, 2021.

Download a written version of my statement.

An Employment Insurance system for the 21st century: Lesson 2, The future of work calls for better income insurance

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 20/01/2021 - 4:24am in

Tags 

Jobs, Unemployment

The COVID pandemic has fast-forwarded many changes in the way employers manage, monitor, and motivate their employees. The future of work is here and will involve more insecurity for many workers. The Canadian federal government can offer better and more appropriate income insurance by responding with both quick and easy, and with more fundamental changes to the Employment Insurance program.

 

The 2020 Speech from the Throne boldly claims that “This pandemic has shown that Canada needs an [Employment Insurance] system for the 21st century, including for the self-employed and those in the gig economy.” That is a tall order, a major overhaul of a complicated program in the span of the next couple of months, with little or virtually no consultation of stakeholders or engagement of experts outside of the government.

Will Minister Qualtrough, her cabinet colleagues, and of course the Prime Minister, get it right?

After all the need for EI reform has long been recognized, with lessons learned well before the onset of COVID19, but always politically convenient to put off. What does the 21st century hold for us?

Well, we’ve seen a good deal during its first 20 years, and some big lessons are pretty clear.

I draw three lessons, and these should be used to judge what the government has in store. You can read about the first here: Big shocks matter and need a response in real time.  This post discusses the second and the reforms it calls for: Lesson 2 is “The future of work has arrived and needs better income insurance for all.”

 

Lesson 2: The future of work has arrived and needs better income insurance

I often wonder what has happened to Neil Piercey, the 58 year old man from London Ontario who walked, with a certain trepidation, into the Prime Minister’s office to speak to the newly elected Justin Trudeau during those heady days in the aftermath of the 2015 election.

Mr. Piercey was one of ten Canadians to engage “Face to Face with the Prime Minister,” as the CBC billed the televised series, each chosen to focus on a policy issue that touched their lives in a way representative of other citizens.

Mr. Piercey’s concern was “Manufacturing jobs in Canada,” and he may have walked in with trepidiation, but he spoke with a great deal of pluck about his plight as a laid-off factory worker who earned a decent income but now as a fruit delivery driver was struggling to piece together work that would give him some semblance of past security.

Savings exhausted, house sold, family disrupted, hard workers like Mr. Piercy were not well served by the first wave of free trade deals, and its attendant globalization of supply chains and contracting out that restructured many industries, particularly across large swaths of Southern Ontario’s manufacturing belt.

People like Mr. Piercey, those in the middle or tail end of their careers with significant seniority with the only employer they have likely known, took it on the chin and in the pocket book, suffering a permanent loss in their lifetime earnings. They were left carrying the cost of a social decision that benefited many, but left them uncompensated. Social policy makers and Finance Ministers at the time were telling these people that they should be “adjusting to win.”

But this man’s past, even now years later, teaches us important lessons about the “future of work,” lessons that still need to be taken to heart so that government has more to offer the next wave of Neil Pierceys than the Prime Minister could during that January 2016 encounter.

Mr. Piercey’s vote could go populist as easy as it might go progressive, and if the upcoming reforms to Employment insurance promised by the Speech from the Throne do not respond in an important way to his call for employment and income security, the reality of a policy agenda framed around “supporting the middle class and those working hard to join them” will more accurately be portrayed as “disappointing those treading to stay afloat and the middle class likely to join them.”

The Future of Work and the coming insecurity

The Speech from the Throne recognizes that the nature of work is changing and calls for coverage to be extended to the self-employed and to so-called “gig” workers.

With the exception of the COVID pandemic, the “changing nature of work” has to be—right up there with climate change—one of the hottest issues facing Canadians, a big cause of uncertainty and insecurity that underlies the middle class malaise that all political parties are hoping to address.

And quite rightly so. The future of work and globalization should raise a lot of anxiety.

Richard Baldwin’s 2019 book, The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics and the Future of Work, argues that as powerful innovations in digital technology meet globalization many higher paid workers in service jobs will be confronted with the disruptions that workers in manufacturing jobs had to deal with during the first wave of globalization during the 1990s.

His argument that its “coming faster than most people believe,” has been rendered all the more believable as the COVID pandemic has advanced the pace at which technology is changing our workplaces and families.

Many employers have made dramatic changes in the hard and soft technology of how they manage, monitor, and motivate their workers, learning that working at home may disrupt productivity, but in many cases may do just the opposite if done right. If that is the case, then how long before your boss starts asking: “If you can do your job anywhere, can anyone do your job?

This is Professor Baldwin’s argument, that advances in communication technology are going to lead to another wave of globalisation and contracting out, but this time moving past manufacturing into the service sector, impacting many white collar workers. Many of them are relatively well-paid but they will likely be brought into head-to-head competition with equally skilled programmers, accountants, purchasing agents in other countries happy to work for a much lower wage.

What then should politicians be doing about this future which COVID has made to look like its just around the corner? Neil Piercey’s experience teaches us that the first step is not more training and exhorting mid-career workers to “adjust to win,” but rather it is to offer better insurance, compensating for the loss of firm-specific skills that have lost their utility when employers have gone belly-up.

Quick and easy reforms for better insurance

Quick and easy reforms to the existing Employment Insurance program involve increasing the fraction of income replaced by benefits in the event of job loss. The “replacement rate” is the result of two dials in the EI program that the federal government can easily notch up: the benefit rate and the maximum insurable earnings.

The benefit rate is currently 55%, meaning that an EI claimant receives 55 cents for every dollar of insurable earnings. This rate has varied from as high as 80% for certain categories of claimants to the current low, and is set by the government with an eye to keeping costs in line, and nominally to promote “work incentives,” encouraging workers to look harder for a job and move more quickly off the EI books. These past priorities don’t serve our present and future well.

There is a long history of legislative changes to this rate. The 1971 legislation introduced a major reform to all aspects of the program, and raised the benefit rate to 66 2/3 % from 40%, even offering a rate of 75% to claimants with children for the first two phases of a five phase benefit period. There were several reforms in the following decades, but the 1996 reforms significantly cut the benefit rate. It has been cut further since, now standing at 55% of insurable earnings. That said, the “Family Supplement” was also re-introduced by this legislation and has varied from as low as 65% to currently as high as 80% for some select groups of low income claimants with families.

My point is that given this history of change that sometimes quite sharply lowered the benefit rate in the name of deficit fighting and work incentives, it is both feasible and timely to raise the benefit rate and offer workers better insurance by covering more of their past earnings. Having roughly half of previous earnings covered is not the support that long-time contributors to the program facing the challenges of the future of work will expect.

But to suggest that claimants have roughly half of their previous earnings replaced by EI benefits is to overstate things. Earnings are replaced by benefits up to the “Maximum Insurable Earnings,” which is currently an annual income of $56,300. This maximum was set at $39,000 in the 1996 legislation that currently governs the program, and updated annually according to movements in Annual Average Earnings as determined for the “Industrial Aggregate” from a monthly Statistics Canada survey.

So workers making more than the average face even a lower benefit rate, EI likely compensating them for less than half of their accustomed income. In other words, there is a whole bunch of relatively well paid workers, much like the manufacturing workers of Neil Peircey’s time, facing a lot more insecurity in their future, but being offered less than adequate insurance.

Source: Employment Insurance Act (S.C. 1996, c. 23), https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-5.6/page-2.html#h-215744 . Click image to enlarge.

The calculation of the maximum insurable earnings is not as complicated as the EI legislation makes it appear: basically take the average weekly earnings last year, and scale it up or down by how much it has changed over the year before that. The point is that it is an easy legislative change to scale it up to be based, say, on one and a half times the average.

Increasing the maximum insurable earnings significantly above the average and raising the benefit rate will increase the replacement rate of incomes and offer workers more complete insurance and foster their sense of security in a more and more uncertain future. These are quick and easy legislative changes the government can make without fuss.

Wage insurance not just employment insurance

An important change that might be a bit more “fuss,” in the sense of requiring more fundamental administrative changes to the EI program, has in fact already been promised by the government in its election platform, and figures in Minister Qualtrough’s original mandate letter:

Create a new Career Insurance Benefit for workers who have worked for the same employer for five or more years and have lost their job as their employer ceases operation. This new Benefit will begin as Employment Insurance ends and will not be clawed back if other income is earned

This is an important and very relevant change to Employment Insurance to address the future of work, enhancing regular benefits in a way that will offer insurance not just for the time unemployed in the search of a new job, but also for the income loss from taking a lower paying job.

This is a mild form of “wage insurance“, and will take an innovative step in making Employment Insurance more relevant for many workers, who may never have collected benefits in the past and are laid off from jobs that they have held for at least five years. It involves paying benefits to laid-off workers after they have accepted a job. The benefit would cover some significant fraction of the difference between their current and past incomes, for some significant period of time.

The government should proceed full throttle on this reform, and indeed even enhance it and make it more significant than originally imagined. Giving some workers strong wage insurance for an extended duration will offer them income security, and help many long-tenure mid career workers adjust to a future of lower pay. You could call it, at least in spirit, “Neil’s benefit.”

What I’m trying to say in all of this is that our current Employment Insurance program does a good job at insuring small risks and offering regionally-based income support, but falls short of insuring potentially big losses. That is a major shortcoming as a wave of big losses is likely coming.

As consumers our welfare depends much more on insurance for losses of potentially catostrophic consequences for our assets: we look to solid home insurance, and worry less about our bicycles. And so as workers, facing the transition to a  new economy, we will increasingly need comprehensive income insurance, not partial and small scale employment insurance.

The future of work calls for better income insurance.

 

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