Science

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Occasional Paper: The Iron Snow Beneath Your Feet

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 08/03/2024 - 10:04pm in

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Science

Okay so, we all know how the Earth ends, right? In six billion years or so, the Sun swells up into a red giant, and the Earth gets melted. Pretty straightforward.

But it turns out that /life/ on Earth will end long before that. There are reasons to think that the biosphere will collapse about a billion years from now — long enough!  But still long before the planet itself gets melted.

Why? Basically two reasons.

First, long before the Sun blows up into a red giant, it will get brighter.  You remember from grade school how the Sun is fusing hydrogen into helium to produce energy?  Well, helium is denser than hydrogen.  So over time, as helium builds up, the Sun’s core gets denser.  And — up to a point — denser means hotter, and hotter means more energy.  So over geological time the Sun very slowly gets brighter.  “Very slowly” here meaning, about 1% brighter every hundred million years.  Stegosaurus lived under a sun that was about 1% dimmer.

Okay, so in about a billion years the Sun will be around 10% brighter.  As it turns out, that’s about the maximum extra energy the biosphere can absorb.  Beyond that, we start to get a runaway greenhouse effect, and the Earth turns into another Venus.  The error bars on the models are pretty large, but it looks like, yeah, about a billion years.

(Just to be clear: this has nothing to do with climate change / global warming.  Climate change is not going to turn us into Venus, a planet with a dense poisonous atmosphere whose surface is hot enough to melt lead.  There is simply no way we can pump enough greenhouse gas into the atmosphere to do that.  Melt the ice caps, sure.  Raise sea levels catastrophically, expand deserts, cause a mass extinction, sure sure.  Render the planet uninhabitable, no.  Totally different thing.)

By a curious coincidence, there’s a completely different process that will /also/ crash Earth’s biosphere in about a billion years, give or take.  That is the expansion of the Earth’s solid core.

Again, back to grade school: remember that diagram of the Earth’s interior in your textbook?  Solid iron core in the center (“the size of the Moon, as hot as the Sun”), surrounded by a liquid “outer core” of hot molten iron, all wrapped in a “mantle” of gooey half-molten rock?  Okay, so the interior of the Earth is fantastically hot.  But that heat slowly escapes through volcanoes and earthquakes, meaning that over geological time the Earth is cooling down.  This cooling gets expressed as a slow, gradual expansion of the Earth’s solid core.  Basically the solid inner core is growing by about 1 millimeter per year — a meter per millennium, a kilometer every million years — into the liquid outer core.

(“But doesn’t that mean the solid core was smaller in the past?”  Yes it sure does!  In fact, the Earth’s solid core is a lot younger than the Earth.  For its first couple of billion years of existence, Earth probably didn’t have a solid core at all.)

Here’s the thing: the liquid outer core is where Earth’s magnetic field is generated.  The details are complex, but basically there are convection currents moving up and down in the molten iron, and that’s where the magnetic field comes from.  But once the Earth’s liquid core gets too shallow, those currents will break down.  Current models suggest that will happen around a billion years from now, give or take.

No magnetic field means no protection from various sorts of horrible radiation coming in from space.   That’s not necessarily game over for the biosphere, but it’s very bad news for anything that doesn’t live underground or underwater.

Again, the error bars are large, and we’re talking about /around/ a billion years.  So there’s still time to clean your attic, yeah?

But!  Here’s a fun complication.  I mentioned the solid iron core is growing, right?  Okay, so just how does it grow?  Well, apparently it grows like a glacier grows, from the accretion of snow.  Crystals of solid iron “snow”, forming in the liquid outer core, softly snowing down.  This paper here looks at the details of that mechanism.  What they find is that snow occurs at different places and different times throughout the liquid core:  “crystallization and the associated buoyancy flux would be strongly heterogeneous in time and space”.  Most of the time, the snow melts again before it reaches the core.  (This happens in Earth’s atmosphere, too.  Ever seen a distant cloud with rain or snow coming out of it, but disappearing before hitting the ground?  The technical term is “virga“; you might have heard them called “jellyfish clouds”.)

The fun complication is… Earth’s core probably has *weather*.  Makes sense, right?  It’s a fluid with lots of heat energy moving through it, plus also it’s rotating.  Differential density, Coriolis force, and oh yeah magnetism probably plays a role.  The Earth’s liquid core has convection cells and iron snow.  And quite possibly it also has storms, some equivalent to thunderstorms and hurricanes.  Except this is happening a couple of thousand miles beneath your feet and, you know, in a dark sea of molten iron. 

And where there’s weather there may be climate.  This sort of thing may explain why the Earth’s magnetic field wanders around, occasionally hiccups a little, and every few hundred millennia simply flips right over.  This is an active field of study right now.

But anyway!  Iron snow, beneath your feet.

Death, Lonely Death

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 20/02/2024 - 12:51am in

Tags 

Science

Billions of miles away at the edge of the Solar System, Voyager 1 has gone mad and has begun to die.

Let’s start with the “billions of miles”. Voyager 1 was launched in early September 1977. Jimmy Carter was a hopeful new President. Yugoslavia and the USSR were going concerns, as were American Motors, Pan Am, F.W. Woolworth, Fotomat booths, Borders bookshops, and Pier 1. Americans were watching Happy Days, M*A*S*H and Charlie’s Angels on television; their British cousins were watching George and Mildred, The Goodies, and Tom Baker as the Fourth Doctor. If you turned on the radio, “Hotel California” by The Eagles was alternating with “Dancing Queen” by Abba (and, if we want to be completely honest, “Car Wash” by Rose Royce). Most cars still ran on leaded gasoline, most phones were still rotary dial, and the Internet was a wonky idea that was still a few weeks from a working prototype.

_The Thorn Birds_ was on top of everyone’s bestseller list. The first Apple II home computer had just gone on sale. The Sex Pistols were in the studio wrapping up _Never Mind The Bollocks_; they would tour on it for just three months and then break up, and within another year Sid Vicious would be dead of a heroin overdose. Barack Obama was a high school junior living with his grandparents in Honolulu, Hawaii: his grades were okay, but he spent most of his time hanging with his pot-smoking friends in the “Choom Gang”.  Boris Johnson was tucked away at the elite Ashdown House boarding school while his parents marriage was slowly collapsing: although he was only thirteen, he had already adopted his signature hair style.  Elvis had just died on the toilet a few weeks ago.  It was the summer of Star Wars.

And Voyager 1 was blasting off for a tour of the Solar System.

There’s no way to pack the whole story of Voyager 1 into a single blog post.  Here’s the TLDR: Voyager was the second spacecraft to fly past Jupiter, and the first to take close-up photos of Jupiter’s moons.  It flew on past Saturn, and examined Saturn’s moon Titan, the only moon with an atmosphere.  And then it flew onwards, on and on, for another forty years.  It officially left the Solar System and entered interstellar space in 2012.  It just kept going, further and further into the infinite emptiness.  

(You know about the Golden Record?  Come on, everybody knows about the Golden Record.  It’s kind of hokey and cheesy and also kind of amazing and great.)

Voyager has grown old.  It was never designed for this!  Its original mission was supposed to last a bit over three years.  Voyager has turned out to be much tougher than anyone ever imagined, but time gets us all.  Its power source is a generator full of radioactive isotopes, and those are gradually decaying into inert lead.  Year by year, the energy declines, the power levels  relentlessly fall.  Year by year, NASA has been switching off Voyager’s instruments to conserve that dwindling flicker.  They turned off its internal heater a few years ago, and they thought that might be the end.  But those 1970s engineers built to last, and the circuitry and the valves kept working even as the temperature dropped down, down, colder than dry ice, colder than liquid nitrogen, falling towards absolute zero.  

(Voyager stored its internal data on a digital tape recorder.  Yes, a tape recorder, storing information on magnetic tape.  It wasn’t designed to function at a hundred degrees below zero.  It wasn’t designed to work for decades, winding and rewinding, endlessly re-writing data.  But it did.)

Voyager kept going, and kept going, until it was over 15 billion kilometers away.  At the speed of light, the Moon is one and a half seconds away.  The Sun is about 8 minutes away.  Voyager is twenty-two hours away.  Send a radio signal to it at lunch on Monday, and you’ll get a response back Wednesday morning.

* * *

I could go on at great length about Voyager — the discoveries it has made, the Deep Space Network that has maintained contact over the decades, the ever shrinking crew of aging technicians keeping it alive on a shoestring budget, how amazing it has all been. But I’ll restrict myself to just this:  the Pale Blue Dot.

Dark grey and black static with coloured vertical rays of sunlight over part of the image. A small pale blue point of light is barely visible.

In 1990, just before Voyager’s camera shut down forever, the probe turned around and looked backwards.  It zoomed in and took a picture of Earth.  But by that time, it was so far away that Earth was just a single pale blue pixel.  Look at the right-most band of light.  A little past halfway down — see that speck?  It’s not a defect.  It’s not something on your screen.  That’s the Earth.

“That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there – on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.” — Carl Sagan

Voyager kept going for another 34 years after that photo.  It’s still going.  It has left the grip of the Sun’s gravity, so it’s going to fall outward forever. 

* * *

Here’s a bit of trivia: Voyager 1 currently holds the record for most distant active spacecraft.  It’s not even close.  The only other contender is Voyager’s little sister, Voyager 2, which had a different mission profile and so lags billions of kilometers behind their older sibling.

Here’s another bit of trivia:  if you’re reading this in 2024?  It’s very unlikely that you will live to see that record broken.  There are only two other spacecraft outside the Solar System — Voyager 2 and New Horizons.  Both of them are going to die before they get as far as Voyager 1.  And nobody — not NASA, not the Chinese, not the EU — is currently planning to launch another spacecraft to those distances.  In theory we could.  In practice, we have other priorities.

* * *

We thought we knew how Voyager would end.  The power would gradually, inevitably, run down.  The instruments would shut off, one by one.  The signal would get fainter.  Eventually either the last instrument would fail for lack of power, or the signal would be lost.

We didn’t expect that it would go mad.

In December 2023, Voyager started sending back gibberish instead of data.  A software glitch, though perhaps caused by an underlying hardware problem; a cosmic ray strike, or a side effect of the low temperatures, or just aging equipment randomly causing some bits to flip.

The problem was, the gibberish was coming from the flight direction software — something like an operating system.  And no copy of that operating system remained in existence on Earth.

(This is a problem NASA long since solved.  These days, every space probe that launches, leaves a perfect duplicate back on Earth.  Remember in “The Martian”, how they had another copy of Pathfinder sitting under a tarp in a warehouse?  That’s accurate.  It’s been standard practice for 30 years.  But back in 1977, nobody had thought of that yet.)

Voyager Mission Control used to be a couple of big rooms full of busy people, computers, giant screens.  Now it’s a single room in a small office building in the San Gabriel Valley, in between a dog training school and a McDonalds.  The Mission Control team is a handful of people, none of them young, several well past retirement age. 

And they’re trying to fix the problem.  But right now, it doesn’t look good.  You can’t just download a new OS from 15 billion kilometers away.  They would have to figure out the problem, figure out if a workaround is possible, and then apply it… all with a round-trip time of 45 hours for every communication with a probe that is flying away from us at a million miles a day.  They’re trying, but nobody likes their odds.

So at some point — not tomorrow, not next week, but at some point in the next few months — they’ll probably have to admit defeat.  And then they’ll declare Voyager 1 officially over, dead and done, the end of a long song.

And that’s all.

 

How Not To Do Great Science (The Lost Post)

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 16/02/2024 - 6:24am in

This post was originally published on Discover Magazine on September 16th 2013, but has since vanished (although most of my other Discover posts are still available). Luckily, I saved a backup. So here's the original "How Not To Do Great Science".

---

This post is a bit special. For the first time ever, I've collaborated with an artist, Erene Stergiopoulos. Her webcomic is here and she's on Twitter here. I think you'll agree that the artistic standard is a little higher than I usually achieve. Anyway, here's what we did:

It would be silly to expect that every architect should finish buildings at a certain rate. That would make it impossible to anyone to build certain things. Some things take longer to build than others, and most great things take a great deal of time. Faced with a sufficiently demanding quota, builders might be reduced to rushing out follies that might look impressive from a distance, but that are no more than hollow shells. Yet, as silly it would be to make uniform demands of architects, this is what is happening to scientists.

Rather than build, scientists are expected to publish - and publish fast - or perish. My worry (and that of many others) is that the pressure to publish often fundamentally changes not just how much scientists write, but what they can write about. It turns researchers into prolific doers of small deeds, but it leaves them little time to think about, let alone complete, great works. Though the mills of God grind slowly...

Yet the problem is not just the speed of science today, but also the direction: go to a scientific conference and you'll see perfectly good data in the process of being oversold, misinterpreted, and p-hacked into a 'publishable' form.

Much has been said about how this leads to false positives - impressive follies that don't stand up to scrutiny. What's less discussed - and the point of this piece - is the opportunity cost. New theories come out of attempts to explain 'negative' data - negative from the perspective of the old theory. Null results are the foundations of future progress, but only if they are allowed to lie there awhile; not if they are torn up and used to prop up tottering old structures.

The Quickest Revolution: An Insider’s Guide to Sweeping Technological Change, and Its Largest Threats – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 25/01/2024 - 11:07pm in

In The Quickest RevolutionJacopo Pantaleoni examines modern technological progress and the history of computing. Bringing to bear his background as a visualisation software designer and a philosophical lens, Pantaleoni illuminates the threats that technological advancements like AI, the Metaverse, and Deepfakes pose to society, writes Hermano Luz Rodrigues.

The Quickest Revolution: An Insider’s Guide to Sweeping Technological Change, and Its Largest Threats. Jacopo Pantaleoni. Mimesis International. 2023.

Find this book: amazon-logo

The quickest revolution by Jacopo Pantaleoni showing a wave in the background“This changes everything” is perhaps the most hackneyed phrase found in YouTube videos when the topic happens to be new technologies. Such videos typically feature enthusiastic presenters describing the marvellous potentials of a soon-to-come technology, and a comment section that shares the same optimism. These videos proliferate daily, receiving hundreds of thousands of views. Regardless of whether we take them at face value or with extreme scepticism, their abundance illustrates the craze for technological progress, and more importantly, that a critical view of this attention is wanting.

Pantaleoni uses theories such as Moore’s Law, which explains an exponential growth phenomenon, and inputs from his career and personal experiences, to frame the history of, and the philosophical ideas driving, technological change.

In The Quickest Revolution, Jacopo Pantaleoni aims to fill this gap by supplying the reader with a critical, yet personal, analysis of modern technological progress and its impact on society. Coming from a background in computer science and visualisation software development, Pantaleoni uses theories such as Moore’s Law, which explains an exponential growth phenomenon, and inputs from his career and personal experiences, to frame the history of, and the philosophical ideas driving, technological change.

The first few chapters of the book are devoted to a survey of the defining moments of pre-modern scientific advancements in the Western world. The chapters include breakthroughs from historical figures such as Copernicus, Galileo and Bacon. The author then fast-forwards to the 20th century to briefly introduce the achievements of the godfathers of computer science like Alan Turing. The descriptions of these events foreshadow the book’s main focus on contemporary technological development and its concerns. In the latter, Pantaleoni approaches many tech-related keywords trending today from a philosophical perspective: AI, Metaverse, Deepfakes, and Simulation, among others.

what distinguishes Pantaleoni’s approach is the fact that he analyses these themes with a gaze that stems from the fields of realistic visualisation and simulation.

While such at-issue discourses on contemporary technology may be plentiful among enthusiasts (eg, podcasts like Lex Fridman), what distinguishes Pantaleoni’s approach is the fact that he analyses these themes with a gaze that stems from the fields of realistic visualisation and simulation. This distinction is not to be taken lightly. Throughout the book, there are surprising overlaps between these specific fields and society’s perception and interest in technology. For example, the author notes how films such as The Matrix, which used technology to simulate and depict “another reality that did look real”, offer proof of “how deeply computer graphics has been affecting our culture” (185). In fact, he argues that not only did sci-fi and CGI-laden media foment interest in stories about simulated worlds, but the technological achievements of such productions heavily contributed to society’s adoration and pursuit of advancements in realistic visualisations and simulations.

Pantaleoni acknowledges that society’s pursuit of a realistic-simulated future is replete with potential benefits, such as reduction of operation costs, accessibility through remote work, and engagement by telepresence. But, he notes that it may bring forth undesirable consequences

Pantaleoni acknowledges that society’s pursuit of a realistic-simulated future is replete with potential benefits, such as reduction of operation costs, accessibility through remote work, and engagement by telepresence. But, he notes that it may bring forth undesirable consequences to the physical world. For him, such aspirations implicitly denote a belief that “advances in photorealistic rendering, networking, and artificial intelligence will provide us the tools to build a better version of reality” (244). He cautions that this reality exodus neglects existing problems, and poses the question: “If we are failing to set things straight in the real world, what chances do we have to fair better, or ‘do it right’ in a hypothetical Metaverse?”(244).

The book makes the case that there are signs that the hitherto inexorable drive for progress in these technologies is leading to devastating effects. As practical examples, the author cites the impacts these technologies have had on political elections, the economy, and collective identity, among others. The book also underscores how physical and virtual/simulated have become increasingly intertwined through technology. Sherry Turkle observed this phenomenon many years prior in her presentation Artificial Intelligence at 50: “When Animal Kingdom opened in Orlando, populated by ‘real’, that is, biological animals, its first visitors complained that these animals were not as ‘realistic’ as the animatronics creatures in Disneyworld”. That is, while the animatronics featured “typical” characteristics, the real animals were perceived as static in comparison.

In a similar fashion, Pantaleoni recognises the capacity of contemporary technologies to shift perceptions and recoil in society as proxies. He writes that the overwhelming majority of Deepfakes, for example, either create pornographic or troubling scenes using celebrities. Furthermore, he notes that Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbots are capable of impersonating a human being and that AI is automating both physical and mental human labour.

Whatever risks these new technologies seem to embody, however, are often brushed off by enthusiasts. This rather careless stance might be due to what Pantaleoni describes as a “blind” faith in technological progress, a belief akin to a “new and widely spread religion” (242). At its core, this techie religion is based on the imperative that technological growth is not to be questioned or impeded, for it makes “promises of a better reality” (243).

While previous technologies were essentially engineered by humans, society is transitioning towards new technologies that are increasingly autonomous and uncontrollable

Two arguments regarding the implications of this “religion” may be extracted from the book. The first argument is that for the zealots, it doesn’t matter how things progress (the means), as long as they continue to do so (produce results). While previous technologies were essentially engineered by humans, society is transitioning towards new technologies that are increasingly autonomous and uncontrollable, because these new technologies produce results that are “far much better than any handcrafted algorithm a human could make”(126).

Similar to the deceiving Mechanical Turk of the 18th century, many of today’s black-box technologies are very convincing in providing an illusion of their capabilities, while little is known about their under-the-hood properties or actual affordances.

The second argument is that what is perceived as progress may actually be a sort of artifice. Similar to the deceiving Mechanical Turk of the 18th century, many of today’s black-box technologies are very convincing in providing an illusion of their capabilities, while little is known about their under-the-hood properties or actual affordances. This concealment of properties and their seductive realism lure techno enthusiasts because of their desire to believe in them. Pantaleoni reminds us, however, that image-generative AI models, for instance, “know nothing about physics laws and accurate simulations” (141). Instead, it achieves extreme realism by feeding millions of training examples (141).

Throughout the book, Pantaleoni engages the reader in the challenges of technological development, through a distinct and compelling gaze – that of his specialisation in realistic visualisation software. Moreover, he does so in the tone of a passionate advocate of technology and a worried critic. There are a variety of contemporary “revolution” topics and discussions, such as the ethics behind the implementation of new technologies or its impact on the economy, and depending on each reader’s preferences and interests, some will resonate more than others. However, readers are likely to find the historical accounts narrated in the first few chapters disjointed from the book’s focus. These accounts are broad and familiar, with much of its content being assumed knowledge for most readers. Nevertheless, Pantaleoni offers notable contributions to the field with his shrewd observations anchored by his vast experience. In a field saturated with either theorists or quacks, it is especially commendable to read a book from the perspective of a practitioner.

This post gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The LSE RB blog may receive a small commission if you choose to make a purchase through the above Amazon affiliate link. This is entirely independent of the coverage of the book on LSE Review of Books.

Image Credit: Bruce Rolff on Shutterstock.

Occasional Paper: Purple Sun Yeast

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 19/01/2024 - 8:46pm in

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Science

An interesting paper: researchers inserted a gene for photosynthesis* into ordinary brewer’s yeast. It worked! The yeast began to photosynthesize, tapping energy from the sun.

I’m not generally alarmist about this sort of thing. But this is… maybe very slightly alarming.

Why?

1) Baker’s yeast is a single-celled fungus. A fungus, like a mushroom. You remember back in grade school, learning that fungi don’t photosynthesize? This breaks that.

2) If you can do this with a single-celled fungus, you can probably do it with a wide range of other organisms.  That probably includes other eukaryotes — complex “higher” organisms — likely including animals.  Animals have no evolutionary history of photosynthesis and aren’t designed for it, but the same is true for yeast.  So… no reason this shouldn’t be possible.  A photosynthesizing cat?  Sure, why not.

3) The precise point where I went from “Huh” to “Holy crap”: the altered yeast showed *enhanced fitness*. Given sunlight, it outperformed both normal yeast and altered yeast with no sunlight.

Gene alteration has been around for many years now, and our biologist friends have come up with some crazy stuff already.  Remember the goats that secreted spider-silk in their milk?  That was years ago, ancient history.  They’re way past that.  So in principle this isn’t a big deal.

But silk-goats aren’t *adaptive*.  They don’t show superior fitness.  Released into the wild, they wouldn’t make a bit of difference. This… might.

Here’s the paper if you want the details.

Anyway.  Weekend, woo!

*The gene was to produce rhodopsin, which is sort of like the cheapass version of chlorophyll.  Rhodopsin is purple instead of green**, and it’s mostly used by bacteria.  On one hand, it’s less efficient than chlorophyll at turning light into chemical energy. Other hand, chlorophyll needs a lot of complicated molecular machinery to work — basically it needs to be wrapped inside a chloroplast, which is a complex little dingus that requires more genes to build.  Rhodopsin doesn’t — drop it into a cell, shine light on it, and it’ll start providing a steady modest trickle of energy. Power drill versus screwdriver, type of thing.

**So a hypothetical rhodopsin-photosynthesizing cat would be, not green, but purple.

 

Language and the Rise of the Algorithm – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 16/01/2024 - 11:01pm in

In Language and the Rise of the Algorithm, Jeffrey Binder weaves together the past five centuries of mathematics, computer science and linguistic thought to examine the development of algorithmic thinking. According to Juan M. del Nido, Binder’s nuanced interdisciplinary work illuminates attempts to maintain and bridge the boundary between technical knowledge and everyday language.

Language and the Rise of the Algorithm. Jeffrey Binder. The University of Chicago Press. 2023

Find this book: amazon-logo

cover of Language and the Rise of the Algorithm by Jeffrey Binder, black background with red algebraic equations and white title fontArguably, the history of what we now call algorithmic thinking is also the history of the consolidation of algebra, mathematics, calculus and formal logic as tools for composing, enunciating, and thinking about abstractions such as “some flowers are red”. But in less obvious ways, Language and the Rise of the Algorithm shows, it is also the history of trying to compute with, and often in spite of, language, to convey a meaningful proposition about the world. In other words, it is the history of ensuring that “red” actually means red – that we are all clear on who sets what red means (for example, experts through definition or ordinary people through usage) and agree on it – and of whether agreeing about these things is what matters when we use language.

The history of what we now call algorithmic thinking []is also the history of trying to compute with, and often in spite of, language, to convey a meaningful proposition about the world.

Harking back to the 1500s, the first of the book’s five chapters examines attempts to use symbols to free writing from words at a time when vernaculars where plentiful, grammars unstable and literacy rates low. Algebra was not then considered part of mathematics proper but its rules, expressed in spoken language, were used for practical purposes like calculating taxes and inheritance. From myriad writing experiments emerged algebraic symbols: uncertain and indeterminate, they enabled computational reasoning about unknown values, a revolution that peaked when Viète first used letters in equations in 1591 (33-36).

Algebra was not [In the 1500s] considered part of mathematics proper but its rules, expressed in spoken language, were used for practical purposes like calculating taxes and inheritance

Chapter Two explores Leibniz’s attempts to produce a philosophical language made of symbols and unburdened by words, such that morals, metaphysics, and experiences are all subject to calculation. This was not an exercise in spitting out numbers, but with the aim of demonstrating the reasoning behind every step of communication: a truth-producing machine (62-64). The messiness of communication struck back: how can one ensure that all terms and their nuances are understood in the same way by different people? Leibniz argued that knowledge was divinely installed in us, waiting to be unlocked by devices such as his, but Locke’s argument that knowledge comes from sensory experience and requires an agreement over what things mean won the day (79), paving the way towards an emphasis on concepts and form.

Leibniz argued that knowledge was divinely installed in us, waiting to be unlocked [] but Locke’s argument that knowledge comes from sensory experience and requires an agreement over what things mean won the day

Leibniz also sought to resolve political differences through that language. Chapter Three argues Condorcet shared this goal and the premise that vernaculars were a hindrance, but contrary to Leibniz, he believed universal ideas needed to be taught, not uncovered. Condillac’s and Stanhope’s experiments with other logical machines – actual, material devices designed to think in logical terms through objects  – epitomised two tensions framing the century after the French Revolution: first, the matter of whether the people, and their vernacular culture, or the learned, and their enlightened culture, should govern shared meanings – that is to say, give meaning – and second, whether algebra should focus on philosophical and conceptual explanations or on formal definitions and rules (121).

The latter drive would prevail, and as Chapter Four shows, rigour came to emanate not from verbal definitions or clarity of meanings, but from axiomatic systems judged on consistency: meanings are irrelevant to the formal rules by which the system operates (148). Developing this consistency would not require the complete replacement of vernaculars Leibniz and Condorcet argued for: rather, symbolic forms would work alongside vernaculars to produce truth values, as with Boolean logic – the one powering search engines, for example. The fifth and last chapter, “Mass Produced Software Components”, rise of programming languages, in particular ALGOL, and the consolidation of regardless of specifics: intelligible, actionable results within a given amount of time (166).

Binder’s rigorous dissection of debates over language, philosophy, geometry, algebra, history and culture spanning 500 years integrates debates that most disciplines today, aside from some strands of media studies and Science and Technology Studies, tend to treat separately

This book is a tightly packed, erudite contribution to the growing concern in the Humanities with algorithms. Binder’s rigorous dissection of debates over language, philosophy, geometry, algebra, history and culture spanning 500 years integrates debates that most disciplines today, aside from some strands of media studies and Science and Technology Studies, tend to treat separately or with a poor sense of their inbuilt connections. A welcome result of this exercise is the historicisation of certain critiques of technological interventions in politics that, generally lacking this kind of integrated, long-range view, we tend to treat as novel and cutting-edge. For example, an 1818 obituary for Charles Mahon, third Earl of Stanhope and inventor of the Demonstrator, a “reasoning machine”, already claimed that technical solutions for other-than-technical problems such as his tend to replicate the biases of their creators (113), and often the very problems they intended to solve. This critique of technoidealism is now commonplace in the social sciences.

A second benefit of the author’s mode of writing is not explicit in the book but is arguably more consequential. From Bacon’s dismissal of words as “idols of the market” in 1623 (15) to PageRank algorithm’s developers’ goal to remove human judgement by mechanisation in the 1990s (200), the book traces attempts across the centuries to free reason and knowledge from language and rhetoric. In doing this, Language and the Rise of the Algorithm effectively serves as a highly persuasive history of the affects, ethics and aspirations of technocratic reason and rule. The book cuts across the histories of bureaucracy and expertise and the birth of governmentality to tell us how an abstraction in how we make meaning work emerged – an abstraction we are asked to trust in, and argue for, partly because it is the kind of abstraction it ended up being.

The book traces attempts across the centuries to free reason and knowledge from language and rhetoric

This is a rich and nuanced book, at times encyclopaedic in scope, and except for a slight jump in complexity and some jargon in the fifth and last chapter, it will be accessible to readers lacking prior knowledge of algorithms, mathematics or language philosophy. It will be of interest to scholars across the social sciences and humanities, from philosophy and history to sociology and anthropology, as well as readers in political science, government studies and economics for the reasons listed above. It could work as course material for very advanced students.

This post gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The LSE RB blog may receive a small commission if you choose to make a purchase through the above Amazon affiliate link. This is entirely independent of the coverage of the book on LSE Review of Books.

Image Credit: Lettuce. on Flickr.

Elon Musk’s War Against Science, Evidence and Objective Truth

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 16/01/2024 - 10:54pm in

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It is no secret that X (formerly known as Twitter) is shedding users and revenue since Elon Musk bought the social media network. The exodus is most pronounced among a particular community that used to call the platform its home: Scientists.

“From a purely scientific perspective, it was a great place to discuss scientific papers and 'meet' other scientists”, says Professor Kristian Andersen, an infectious disease researcher who used the platform for communicating science to the public. He met many future collaborators there, for example producing cutting-edge science on the Zika virus that ended up published in the journal Nature. “That, truly, was the best of Twitter, because those collaborations wouldn't have happened otherwise”. A few weeks ago, he deleted his account with over a hundred thousand followers for good. He was not the first, but among the last few holdouts.

“The loss of science on Twitter is a contemporary mass extinction event”, says Professor Edward Holmes, who recently was awarded the prestigious Croonian Medal by the Royal Society. He has also deleted his Twitter account recently. “Twitter used to be THE place where you shared ideas, data, preprints and papers. Now it’s a post-Apocalyptic hell hole.”

When Elon Musk took over the platform in November 2022, he instigated a barrage of erratic and incompetent changes, from firing most staff to going through the embarrassment of re-hiring critical functionalities; changing the “blue check” verification system into a pay-for-play marker of shame, getting rid of Twitter’s trust and safety team, and inviting back white supremacy activists, racist influencers and political propagandists such as the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. With every wave of change, the situation has gotten progressively worse for scientists.

“I think most of my network on Twitter has left - the view is that it has become a total cesspool. Musk obliterated their capacity to moderate, he invited superspreaders back onto the platform, spreads election disinformation himself and frequently boosts false accounts”, says Professor Sander van der Linden, a misinformation researcher from the University of Cambridge. Additionally, Elon Musk has removed API (Application Programming Interface) access for researchers who used to study mis- and disinformation on Twitter, thereby reducing transparency and making their work harder. Van der Linden thinks that “amongst misinformation researchers there is a fairly unanimous consensus that the quality of information and engagement has gone down dramatically”. Now, he observes “It's largely been taken over by trolls and misinformation spreaders dominating the discourse.”

Responsible for the latter is largely the change in curation, lack of any moderation, subversion of trust markers and amplification of the worst conspiracy theorists, grifters and disinformation spreaders.

“Twitter was never perfect and has always been under threat by trolls and bots”, the now embattled vaccine scientist Dr Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School for Tropical Medicine at Baylor College in Texas, admits. But it had been at least possible to “present serious and evidence-based pandemic science for the public.” With the transition to X, he says, “the propaganda and threats against us became unrelenting”.

X has not only buried relevant, accurate and truthful information under a barrage of junk information, it has invited exploitation by media manipulators and combatants that treat information as a tool for warfare. And scientists have found themselves in the middle.

“Information has become a battlespace, like naval or aerial”, Carl Miller, Research Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media, once explained to me. Information warfare impacts how information is used, shared and amplified. What matters for information combatants is not the truth, reliability, relevance, contextuality or accuracy of information, but its strategic impact on the battlespace; that is, how well it manipulates citizens into adopting desired actions and beliefs.

Information combatants include a wide array of actors and entities, from powerful industries to political campaigns, from troll farms to militaries, from religious movements to activist communities, from profiteering influencers to eccentric billionaires, including the new owner of X himself. They all aim to shape public discourse in their favour.

While all the big social networks struggle with containing information warfare, X under Elon Musk is actively facilitating it. As a recently published Code of Practice on disinformation report by European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) network notes “the inescapable conclusion of this document is that Elon Musk’s Twitter failed every single indicator [out of 156]  and gave every impression of blatant non-compliance”

X’s facilitation of disinformation was one of the main reasons why the European Commission opened formal infringement proceedings against X on 18 December 2023. So at least within the EU, citizens can hope for improvements.

Meanwhile, the free reign of information combatants on X has put a target on scientists. The scientific method tends to interfere with popular sentiments, political myth-making or powerful interests. Science has the inherent authority to create, assert, dispute, and correct information, thus it is the ultimate arbiter of solving informational conflicts, confusions or contradictions necessary to build shared reality based on shared facts.

Yet when any notion of objective truth itself is under attack, speaking up for an evidence-based worldview can quickly become a risk to livelihood and personal safety for scientists, journalists and citizens alike. Surveys recently conducted on biomedical scientists show two out of three scientists reported harassment after advocating for evidence-based science. Doxxing, lawsuits, character assassinations, and credible death threats have been following many scientists ever since becoming the target on X.

As a result, many scientists get effectively bullied off or silenced from public conversation. Some feel forced to disengage because they worry about the safety of their family, others self-censor online to avoid getting targeted. Exact numbers are hard to come by, within six months of Musk taking over, almost half of environmental scientists had left the platform, many quitting social media entirely.

This scientific exodus from public conversation might however be problematic for democratic society, which researchers argue relies on a shared body of knowledge among citizens. One of them, Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, a cognitive psychology researcher at the University of Bristol, sees the rise of anti-science activism and sentiment as a hallmark of democratic backsliding.

He and others look with worry towards this year of global elections.

The most important message, he argues, is that “Public spaces must not be under the control of billionaires – public spaces belong under public control with public accountability.”

We’re killing it.

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 12/01/2024 - 7:11am in

Right-wing ranters in my Twitter timeline are pooh-poohing the whole climate discussion without doing their homework. So, here’s a little reader to aid and abet (sorry, early retired teacher and that all). Let’s start at the beginning:1. CO2 is measured at the Manua Loa station. Results are clear, robust, and stark: CO2 is increasing. And […]

Scientists Find That The First Work Week Of The Year Is In Fact The Longest

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 11/01/2024 - 7:00am in

Scientists have released the results of a long range study that has found that the first work week of the year is in fact the longest, no matter if you start the week on a Monday or a Thursday.

”This is ground breaking research which has shattered all long-held beliefs,” said Scientist Bunson Burner. ”Previously it was thought that the last week of the working year was the longest.”

”Second only to the week before you go on leave for an overseas vacation.”

When asked what workers could do to help make the week go faster, Scientist Burner said: ”Working from home helps, I mean if you’re not that busy you can potentially sleep the week away.”

”Other tips include avoiding the office bore, especially if they’ve recently been on a cruise. Scheduling meetings with different teams to find out what they got up to over the holidays or, and this is a drastic one, actually working.”

Mark Williamson

@MWChatShow

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Pro-Israel lawyer group tries to threaten Tower Hamlets to take down Palestine flags

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 09/01/2024 - 1:25pm in

UK Lawyers for Israel waves criminality threat at mayor Lutfur Rahman and council with claim local Jews feel threatened – a tactic seen and discredited before – but police already said in October no offence had been committed

Right-wing pro-Israel pressure group ‘UK Lawyers for Israel’ (UKLFI) has tried to force Tower Hamlets council and its mayor Lutfur Rahman to remove Palestinian flags put up by residents in solidarity with people facing occupation and genocide in Gaza – by threatening Rahman and his colleagues with criminalisation if they do not.

The group has form. Manchester University – to widespread outrage in the art world – pressured its museum director to resign for daring to host a display by Forensic Architecture, the science group that has criticised the Israeli regime for extrajudicial killings and other illegal actions, after UKLFI claimed the display was provocative. Forensic Architecture is also known for having debunked Israeli military lies attempting to blame the bombing of Al Ahli hospital in Gaza, which killed hundreds of refugees sheltering there, on a misfired Hamas rocket.

UKLFI also pressured Chelsea and Westminster hospital into taking down a harmless display of plates painted by Palestinian children by claiming Jewish patients had said they were distressed by them – but a Freedom of Information Act request revealed that not a single complaint had been made by patients or visitors.

The group was criticised by Jewish human rights group Na’amod for inviting an Israeli right-wing extremist group to speak in the UK and has been accused of links with the Israeli ministry of foreign affairs. The European Legal Support Centre accused UKLFI of using ‘lawfare’ as a ‘politically motivated’ weapon and said that the group “has been attempting to smear and disrupt the work of Palestinian human rights groups and their partners for years”.

UKLFI paid an out of court settlement to a Palestinian children’s charity it had libelled by claiming the charity gave “financial or material support to any terrorist organization” and admitted that UKLFI supported the ‘Ministry of Strategic Affairs’, an ‘Israeli black-ops department’ that tries to undermine the ‘Boycott Divestment and Sanctions’ campaign against the Israeli occupation and to delegitimise Palestinian solidarity actions globally. Broadcast regulator Ofcom rejected a UKLFI complaint that a Channel 4 video featuring Palestinian young people was unfair to it.

Tower Hamlets council appeared to call the group’s bluff. A council spokesperson said:

As one of the most diverse areas in the country, we are monitoring any community tensions closely with our tension monitoring group, which includes the police and representatives from a broad range of community organisations.

A number of Palestinian flags have been put up by the public in recent months. While we appreciate people want to express their support for Palestine, we have a routine responsibility to monitor and maintain council infrastructure. The situation is under regular review…

We are not aware of any criminal offences related to Palestinian flags not being removed, and we will continue to work closely with police partners to manage the situation.

And the council has reason to be confident. When attempts – not explicitly linked to UKLFI in reports – were made in October to us a similar tactic to force it to remove Palestinian, the Met Police said that as far as they were concerned, no criminal act had been committed.

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