Regulation

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The Evolution of America’s (Un)protected Consumer

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 01/05/2024 - 5:04am in

Consumer protection started to be seen as a responsibility that individuals, deemed rational and capable, were expected to shoulder themselves, assuming they were provided adequate information about the terms of exchange. ...

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Can I Speak to Your Supervisor? The Importance of Bank Supervision

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 15/04/2024 - 9:00pm in

 man holding a magnifying glass to a red wooden businessman leading way

In March of 2023, the U.S. banking industry experienced a period of significant turmoil involving runs on several banks and heightened concerns about contagion. While many factors contributed to these events—including poor risk management, lapses in firm governance, outsized exposures to interest rate risk, and unrecognized vulnerabilities from interconnected depositor bases, the role of bank supervisors came under particular scrutiny. Questions were raised about why supervisors did not intervene more forcefully before problems arose. In response, supervisory agencies, including the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, commissioned reviews that examined how supervisors’ actions might have contributed to, or mitigated, the failures. The reviews highlighted the important role that bank supervisors can play in fostering a stable banking system. In this post, we draw on our recent paper providing a critical review and summary of the empirical and theoretical literature on bank supervision to highlight what that literature tells us about the impact of supervision on supervised banks, on the banking industry and on the broader economy.  

Supervision and Regulation Are Distinct Activities 

In the economic literature on banking and in discussions of the banking industry, the terms “supervision” and “regulation” are often used interchangeably, but in fact these are distinct activities. “Regulation” is the process of establishing the rules under which banks operate: who can own banks, permissible and impermissible activities, and minimum capital and liquidity requirements. Regulations are subject to public comment and input before they are adopted, and they are published for all to see. “Supervision” involves oversight and monitoring of banks to ensure that they are operating in a safe and sound manner. A key part of supervision is ensuring that banks are in compliance with regulations, but supervision also involves qualitative assessments of banks’ internal processes, controls, governance and risk management—and taking enforcement actions when weaknesses are discovered. While some enforcement actions are public, much of supervisory activity is confidential and not publicly disclosed.

A large body of economic research has focused on the goals and impacts of regulation, but much less research has been conducted on the objectives and impacts of supervision, perhaps reflecting the limited information available on supervisory outcomes. Still, a growing body of empirical research is assessing the impact of supervision on banks and examining how supervision affects the risk-taking, lending, and profitability of supervised banks. We summarize some key findings from this work below.

Risk-taking and Performance 

It is difficult to estimate the relationship between supervision and performance because troubled banks get more supervisory attention. So, any simple analysis would probably conclude that more intensive supervision leads to problems at banks. Papers that try to estimate the impact of supervision therefore either try to compare similar banks or employ creative strategies to identify bank characteristics associated with more supervision, but not more risk. Nearly all papers examining the impact of supervision on risk-taking find that more intensive supervision results in reduced risk-taking by banks.

Delis et al. look directly at public enforcement actions, such as cease and desist orders, and find that they are associated with subsequent reductions in bank risk, suggesting that these specific types of supervisory actions are effective in causing banks to change their practices. Other papers instrument for supervision using discrete events or characteristics that result in more or less supervisory attention for particular banks, such as changes in the asset-size cutoff for certain types of supervisory reviews (see Rezende and Wu and Bissetti), distance from supervisory offices (see Hagendorff, Lim, and Armitage; Kandrac and Schlusche, Leuz and Granja), and whether a bank is among the largest in the office responsible for its supervision (Hirtle, Kovner, and Plosser). This research finds that more intensively supervised banks have less volatile income, experience fewer and less volatile loan losses, are less negatively affected by economic downturns, and/or spend more on internal controls than banks subject to less supervisory attention. 

In contrast to concerns that supervision may inhibit growth, this reduced risk does not appear to come at the expense of profitability or growth. Most papers that examine this question find that supervision has a neutral to positive effect on profitability, as reflected in equity returns, risk-adjusted returns, market-to-book ratios, or accounting net income. In a previous Liberty Street Economics blog post, we shared our result that more intensively supervised banks do not have measurably lower asset or loan growth rates than comparable banks subject to less intensive supervision. These findings suggest that supervision reduces the risk of bank failure, with little cost to bank profitability. But are there other impacts to consider in weighing the costs and benefits of supervision? 

Lending 

While more intensive supervision might not reduce bank profitability, it can have effects on other aspects of banks’ activities. The most critical of these is lending. Supervision results in less risky lending, as noted above, but does it also decrease the amount of credit available to borrowers? The papers looking at this question have found mixed results, with some finding that more intensive supervision results in reduced credit supply, while others find that risk is reduced without significantly reducing lending.

The longest-standing research on the impacts of supervision examines how the stringency of the bank examination process affects banks’ lending. In general, these papers find that increased supervisory stringency is associated with reduced loan origination or slower loan growth, though the estimated economic effects of the impact vary. Other studies have found that while supervisory actions such as guidance on commercial real estate and leveraged lending might reduce these types of loans at banks subject to the tighter supervisory expectations, the targeted banks shift into other forms of lending and at least some of the targeted lending shifts to other banks. Some studies find that lending rebounds over time as banks and borrowers adjust to the new approach.

Does Supervision Strike the Right Balance? 

In the period after the failures of several large banks in March 2023, many questions were raised about whether more forceful supervision of those banks could have prevented their failure or limited the contagion that followed. Our review does not directly address this specific event but provides some general results about the costs and benefits of supervision. One important caveat to these findings is that they were estimated at levels of supervision prevailing at the time of the analysis. It is possible (and even likely) that the free lunch suggested in the positive relationship between supervision and risk without significant impact on growth may not hold if supervision were dramatically increased from those levels.

Beverly Hirtle is a financial research advisor in Financial Intermediation Policy Research in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

Anna Kovner is the director of Financial Stability Policy Research in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

How to cite this post:
Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner , “Can I Speak to Your Supervisor? The Importance of Bank Supervision,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, April 15, 2024, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/04/can-i-speak-to-you....

How Does Supervision Affect Bank Performance during Downturns?

A Peek behind the Curtain of Bank Supervision

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

Why I'm in favor of financial illiteracy

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 12/04/2024 - 12:31pm in

Tags 

Regulation

 
I'm not a fan of mandatory investor education classes. The issue was brought up recently by former chair of FDIC, Sheila Bair, who sees early financial education as ways to stop future FTX-style disasters.

The model of finance I've been using for many years is the fairly dismal dark forest model. The financial industry is a shadowy forest full of sly foxes waiting to prey on retail investors. The list of sly foxes is long: all sorts of Samuel Bankman-Frieds, IRS scammers, internet ponzi schemers, stock con-artists, bankers hocking high-fee products, fly-by-night gold mine promoters, and shady crypto platforms. It's truly horrifying out there.

So why not implement mandatory high school financial literacy classes to upgrade the retail class's defences against this dark forest?

My first concern is that high school students can only absorb so much. Mandatory financial literacy classes will inevitably come at the expense of learning other very important things like math, writing, and science, which are at the base of so many vital disciplines.

Second, while I'm sure financial literacy classes might help a bit to protect us against the dark forest, I don't think they'll do much. The prototypical retail investor's single biggest weakness is that we are all incredibly busy people. As we rush through the dark forest we simply don't have enough time to familiarize ourselves with its many arcana. This incapacity to pay sufficient attention makes us easy pickings, no matter whether we've had a few financial literacy classes or not.  

The dark forest preys not only on our rushed lives, but also our need to keep up with the Joneses, our precarious and stressful financial situations, and our worries for loved ones. I'm just not convinced that a few years of high-school financial literacy classes will release us from these eternal and very-exploitable emotions.

Luckily, we have two other major defences against the dark forest: the competitive market and the government.

The government can make the dark forest safer by flushing out bad actors and pushing fraudsters to the nether regions, then nudging us retail investors towards the parts made safe. It does so by regulation, standard investor protections, licensing requirements, and through law enforcement and the court system.

As for the market, its competitive nature gives rise to a class of trained and experienced financial professionals who are generally equipped to lead retail investors through the dark forest.

If we get these two defences right, then we can afford ourselves a great luxury: a retail investor class that gets to remain relatively ignorant of finance while being safe in its ignorance. This ignorance is a thing of beauty. Instead of folks having to waste time and energy learning about the forest's fox population, its patois, and its dangerous pathways, they can focus on their own very busy lives, families, studies, hobbies, and careers. That's what we want them to do. We don't want a world where the average person needs to give up an hour or two each week slogging through financial literacy 101. We want them to blithely use financial products and take for granted they will be safe, and then get on with more important things.

Alas, if we get these two defences wrong, then we get disasters like Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, which destroyed the financial lives of thousands of innocent retail investors. 

What happened with FTX? In the case of FTX's offshore exchange, there was a complete absence of government regulation. Not so FTX's US arm. Alas, FTX-US operated under a bare-bones regulatory framework courtesy of state licensing boards, which are simply not appropriate for overseeing a trading venue like FTX, and are more equipped for watching over remittance companies like Western Union. (See my article Let's stop regulating crypto exchanges like Western Union.) This was the dark forest at its darkest.

To see how see this first line of defence can be properly deployed, take a look at what happened in Japan when FTX collapsed. FTX's Japanese customers were made 100% whole a few months after the debacle. (American ones are still waiting). That's because Japan got things right and forced FTX Japan to adopt appropriate regulation, effectively preventing the sly fox Bankman-Fried from preying on Japanese citizens. (See my article Six reasons why FTX Japan survived while the rest of FTX burned.) 

The second defence against predators like Sam Bankman-Fried, a market-supplied legion of trained and experience financial professionals, was lacking, too, since stuff like dogecoin and dogwifhat is outside the ambit of the financial professional class, and deservedly so. Had seasoned institutional investors and other financial professionals been operating in the sector, they would have used their training to suss out the FTX fraud much earlier, guiding folks away to safer exchanges.

The two defences entirely lacking, the result was a wave of innocent retail investors left free to venture into into the dark forest. But mandatory financial literacy classes don't fix this. Government regulation and elite financial professionals do. 

How PayPal can use stablecoins to avoid AML requirements and make big profits

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 19/03/2024 - 8:09am in

There's a new financial loophole in town: stablecoins. Stablecoins are dollar, yen, or pound-based payments platforms that are built using crypto database technology.

Financial institutions are always looking for loopholes to game the system. Typically this has meant avoiding capital requirements or liquidity ratios in one jurisdiction in favor of a looser standards elsewhere. The new stablecoin loophole allows for a different set of financial standards to be avoided, society's anti-money laundering regulations.

I'll explain this new loophole using PayPal as my example.

PayPal now offers its customers two sorts of regulated platforms for making U.S. dollar payments. The first type will be familiar to most of us. It is a traditional PayPal account with a U.S. dollar balance, and includes PayPal's flagship platform as well as PayPal-owned platforms Xoom and Venmo. These all have strict anti-money laundering controls.

The second type is PayPal's newer stablecoin platform, PayPal USD, which has loose anti-money laundering controls. PayPal USD is built on one of the world's most popular crypto databases, Ethereum. Dollars held on crypto databases are typically known as stablecoins, the most well-known of which are Tether and USDC.

What do I mean by fewer anti-money laundering controls?

If I want to transfer you $5,000 on PayPal's traditional platform, PayPal will first have to grant both of us permission to do so. It does so by obliging us go through an account-opening process. PayPal will carry out due diligence on both of us by collecting our IDs and verifying them, then running our information against various regulatory blacklists, like sanctions lists. Only after we have passed a gamut of checks will PayPal allow us to use its platform to make our $5,000 transfer.

Contrast this to how a payment is made via PayPal's new stablecoin platform.

First, we both have to set up an Ethereum wallet. No ID check is required for this. That now allows us to access PayPal's stablecoin platform. Next, I have to fund my wallet with $5,000. I can get these these funds from a third-party who already holds money on PayPal's stablecoin platform, say from a friend, or from someone who buys goods from me, or from a decentralized exchange. Again, no ID is required for this transaction to occur. Once I have the funds, PayPal will process my $5,000 transfer to you.

Can you spot the difference? In the transaction made via PayPal's legacy platform, PayPal has diligently got to know everyone involved. In the second transaction, PayPal makes no effort to gather information on us. And lacking our names, physical addresses, email addresses, or phone numbers, it can't do a full cross-check against various regulatory black lists.  

More concretely, PayPal's legacy platform does its best to stop someone like Vladimir Putin, who is sanctioned, from ever being able to sign up and make payments. But if Putin wanted to use PayPal's new stablecoin platform, PayPal makes almost no effort to stop him from jumping on.

One of the biggest expenses of running a legacy financial platform is anti-money laundering compliance. Programmers must be deployed to set up onboarding and screening processes. Compliance officers must be hired. If a transaction is suspicious, that may trigger a halt, and the transaction will have to be painstakingly investigated by one of these officers. The platform is hurt by lost customer goodwill – no one likes a delay.

That's where the stablecoin loophole begins.

PayPal can reduce its costs of getting to know its customer by nudging customers off its traditional platform and onto its PayPal USD stablecoin platform. Now it can onboard them without asking for ID. Since it no longer collects personal information about its user base, fewer transactions trigger flags for being suspicious, and only rarely do they register hits on sanctions blacklists. That means fewer halts, delays, and costly investigations. PayPal can now fire a large chunk of its compliance staff. The reduction in costs leads to a big rise in earnings. Its share price goes to the moon.

For now, PayPal's stablecoin platform remains quite small. Only $150 million worth of value is held on the platform, as the chart at the top of this post shows. The company's legacy platforms are much larger, with around $40 billion worth of balances held. Given the compliance cost difference, though, I suspect PayPal would love it if its stablecoin platform were to grow at the expense of its legacy platform.

I've used PayPal as my example, but the same calculus works for the financial industry in general. If every single bank in the financial system were to convert over to a stablecoin platform for the delivery of financial services, and no longer use their legacy platforms, the industry's total anti-money laundering compliance costs would plummet.

So far I've just explained this all from the perspective of financial institutions, but what about from the viewpoint of the rest of us? Society has set itself the noble goal of preventing bad actors from using the financial system. A large part of this effort is delegated to financial institutions by requiring them to incur the expense of performing due diligence on their platform users. This requires a big outlay of resources. Many of these costs are ultimately passed on to us, the users.

If institutions like PayPal switch onto infrastructure that doesn't vet users, then resources are no longer being deployed for the purposes we have intended, and the broader goals we have set out are being subverted. Is that what we want? I'd suggest not.

Some followup thoughts:

1. PayPal's stablecoin platform employs fewer anti-money laundering controls than its regular platform. On the other hand, its stablecoin platform has stricter standards in other areas, including the safety of its customer funds. I wrote about this here: "It's the PayPal dollars hosted on crypto databases that are the safer of
the two, if not along every dimension, at least in terms of the degree
to which customers are protected by: 1) the quality of underlying
assets; 2) their seniority (or ranking relative to other creditors); and
3) transparency."

2. The pseudonymity of stablecoins is something I've been writing about for a while. In a 2019 post, I worried that at some point this loophole would lead to "hyper-stablecoinization," a process by which every bank account gets converted into a stablecoin. I'm surprised that almost five years later, this loophole still hasn't been closed.

3. The typical riposte to this post will be: "But JP, stablecoins are implemented on blockchains, and blockchains are transparent. This prevents bad actors from using them, and so stablecoins should be exempt from standard anti-money laundering rules." I don't buy this. Bad actors are using stablecoin platforms, despite their pseudo-traceability. "Its convenient, it's quick," say a pair of sanctions breakers about payments made via Tether, the largest stablecoin platform. Society has deputized financial institutions to perform the crucial task of vetting all their users. By not doing so, stablecoin platforms are shirkers. Trying to outsource the policing task to the public or to the government by using a semi-transparent database technology doesn't cut it.

Industrial Policy in Turkey: Rise, Retreat and Return – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 18/03/2024 - 11:03pm in

In Industrial Policy in Turkey: Rise, Retreat and ReturnMina Toksoz, Mustafa Kutlay and William Hale analyse Turkey’s industrial policy over the past century, highlighting the interplay of global paradigms, macroeconomic stability and domestic institutional contexts. The book offers a timely analyses of industrial policy’s past and possible future trajectories, though it stops short of interrogating exactly how cultural, social, political and economic factors shape state-business relations and bureaucracy, writes M Kerem Coban.

Industrial Policy in Turkey: Rise, Retreat and Return. Edinburgh University Press. 2023. 

Industrial Policy in Turkey book coverIs industrial policy back? The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, or the 2016 UK industrial policy are only two contemporary examples. These policies seek to address value chain bottlenecks, as well as the question of how to “take back control” in manufacturing and key sectors, along with concerns about gaining or sustaining economic edge and autonomy

In this context, the Turkish experience is illustrative for making sense of the trajectory of industrial policy in a major developing country. Mina Toksoz, Mustafa Kutlay and William Hale examine the evolution of industrial policy in Turkey. They present an accessible, detailed account of the trajectory and evolution of the policy since the establishment of the Republic, which argues that we had better study “the conditions under which state intervention works, rather than whether the state should intervene in the economy” (26, emphasis in original).

[The authors] suggest that effective industrial policy is the outcome of the interaction between global development policy paradigms, macroeconomic (in)stability, and the domestic institutional context.

The book is divided into five chapters. Chapter One discusses the political economy of industrial policy and sets out an analytical framework. The authors assert that analyses should go beyond dichotomies (eg, horizontal vs. vertical policies; export-led vs. import-substituting industrialisation) and that a broader understanding requires identifying the factors and conditions of effective industrial policy. They suggest that effective industrial policy is the outcome of the interaction between global development policy paradigms, macroeconomic (in)stability, and the domestic institutional context. Global development policy paradigms evolved from étatism of the 1930s, import-substituting industrialisation in the 1960s and the 1970s, neoliberalism of the 1980s, and the return of industrial policy after the 2008 Financial Crisis. Macroeconomic (in)stability drives (un)certainty regarding economic policies and instruments and the trajectory of economy, which, in turn, regulates investment decisions. Finally, the domestic institutional context concerns how state-society, or state-business, relations are structured, whether the state capacity is sufficient to resolve conflicts, discipline and coordinate actor behaviour, and whether bureaucracy has capabilities to formulate and implement policies. Figure 1 seeks to summarise the main argument of the book.

Industrial Policy in Turkey Figure 1Figure 1: Flow chart summarising the book’s main argument. Source: M Kerem Coban.

Chapter Two focuses on the longue durée between 1923 and 1980. From the ashes of incessant wars that ruined the already unsophisticated infrastructure and demographic challenge, the new Republic had to build a new nation. Yet the rise of the state interventionist era in the 1930s drove policymakers towards the first industrialisation plan and the opening of many industrial sites across the country. When the Democrat Party assumed power, the interventionist, planning-based industrial policy was scrutinised for liberalisation that even included state-owned enterprises to be released to set up their own prices (73).

At the same time, business was encouraged to invest. For example, the fruits of these included Otosan or BOSSA (75). Between 1960 and 1980, the authors underline the second planning period with the establishment of the State Planning Organisation (SPO). SPO boosted bureaucratic and planning capacity and capabilities for disciplined, systematic industrial policy during the era of import-substitution.

Between 1980 and 2000 […] Turkey shifted to export-led growth and liberalised trade and financial flows. These shifts had profound implications for bureaucracy

The third chapter examines demoted industrial policy between 1980 and 2000 when Turkey shifted to export-led growth and liberalised trade and financial flows. These shifts had profound implications for bureaucracy: SPO was sidelined, parallel bureaucratic networks of Ozal were implanted with the opening of new offices or agencies. Consequently, the role of state became less coherent, as political uncertainty driven by unstable coalitions eroded the market-shaping role of the state. The financial sector did not help industrial policy, since banks were dominantly financing chronic budget deficits during a period of high inflation (111). What is more, business, including Islamic conservative SMEs in Anatolia, reduced or ignored investments in manufacturing given the clientelist state-business relations that incentivised construction, real-estate development (115), emphasis in original). Finally, the external conditions were not disciplinary: accession to the Customs Union with the European Union and the World Trade Organization ruled out export support and import restricting measures, among other trade regulatory instruments.

The fourth chapter claims that industrial policy retreated between 2001 and 2009. The first years of this period was marked by political instability and a local systemic banking crisis and its resolution, and Justice and Development Party (AKP in Turkish) assumed power. During this period, industrial policy was dominated by institutionalisation of the regulatory state and  the privatisation of state-owned enterprises, the establishment of autonomous regulatory agencies and are structured banking sector. While the regulatory capacity of the state increased, privatisation and the regulation of the market were highly politicised. For example, “a major cycle of gas privatisation saw ‘politically connected persons’ winning fifteen out of nineteen metropolitan centres and serving 76 percent of the population” (161). In such a politically compromised setting, which was accompanied by the institutionalisation of the capital inflow-dependent credit-led growth model that prioritised “rent-thick” sectors, industrial policy could not flourish.

While the regulatory capacity of the state increased, privatisation and the regulation of the market were highly politicised.

The fifth chapter locates the policy within the global ideational and political economic context that marks the return of industrial policy in various forms. In line with policy documents such as the 11th Development Plan, horizontal measures, private and public R&D spending on high-tech initiatives, electric vehicle manufacturing attempt, and most notably the advancements in defence sector have constituted the revival of industrial policy. At the same time, the authors point to several challenges such as eroded academic research and quality and a lack of investment in ICT skills. Additionally, R&D subsidies or other industrial policy measures require thorough performance criteria and measurement to discipline actor behaviour and regulate the incentive structures.

Industrial Policy in Turkey is a timely contribution to the current debate. Its historical account and analysis of current policies, instruments, and the potential trajectory of industrial policy are its main strengths. Still, there are several caveats. First, the book’s framework is not systematic, which causes some confusion. For example, the book does not demonstrate a convincing link between the role and impact of autonomous agencies on industrial policy. Second, the book leaves the reader with more questions than answers, one of which relates to the effect of bureaucratic fragmentation in shaping industrial policy. Another is around the implications of state-business for bureaucracy, and consequently, industrial policy.

The book leaves the reader with more questions than answers, one of which relates to the effect of bureaucratic fragmentation in shaping industrial policy.

Third, the trajectory of industrial policy cannot be considered independently from the shifts in growth models. Yet the fact these shifts occur because the country depends on hard currency earnings for capital accumulation and to finance consumption and investments: Turkey either relies on capital flows or export earnings, in addition to tourism and (un)recorded (illicit) flows. Pendulums between these channels imply that the country cannot design and implement disciplined, systematic industrial policy. Put differently, there are macroeconomic and financial structural impediments against generating hard currency earnings. Industrial policy is one of the remedies, however, the macroeconomic and structural transformative consequences of the latest episode of emphasis on industrial policy and the export-driven growth experiment in Turkey are yet to be seen.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the book tends to relegate a core problem of coordination, long-term policy design and implementation to “governance issues”. Deeper cultural, social, political and economic factors determine the clientelist state-business relations and their effect on bureaucracy and bureaucratic autonomy. Such deeper ties have been masked by instrumentalised “democratisation reforms” or higher economic growth rates in the previous years. In this context, is the more critical problem the purposefully immobilised or challenged infrastructural power to coordinate societal actors? If that is true, then should we make interdisciplinary attempts to identify this problem’s core determinants?

Note: This interview gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Image credit: Chongsiri Chaitongngam on Shutterstock.

Rethinking Drug Laws: Theory, History, Politics – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 14/03/2024 - 9:23pm in

In Rethinking Drug Laws: Theory, History, Politics, Toby Seddon analyses drug control policy and argues for a paradigm shift that decentres the West and recognises China’s historical and contemporary influence. Unpacking the complexity of drug law as a regulatory system, Seddon’s well-argued, insightful book calls for more inclusive, evidence-informed and democratic policymaking, writes Mark Monaghan.

Rethinking Drug Laws: Theory, History, Politics. Toby Seddon. Oxford University Press. 2023.

Based on forensic archival research, Rethinking Drug Laws: Theory, History, Politics by Toby Seddon is beautifully written and deeply insightful. Its central thesis is that we must decentre the West, especially when thinking about the origins of drug policy. Viewing drug policy from a Western vantage point is a blip because, as Seddon shows, China has long been a key player on the global stage, but drug policy analysis, with some exceptions, has not always recognised this. In this way, drug policy analysis has fallen into the trap of Occidentalism, providing a distorted view of the West’s prominence. Seddon sets out to show the folly of this and succeeds. Furthermore, he demonstrates that there are signs of regression toward the mean as China once again is becoming a primary global player, particularly through the belt and road initiative.

In drug control, inanimate objects – drugs – are not banned, but transactions that would otherwise constitute lawful economic activity are criminalised.

A defining feature of Seddon’s writing is the remarkable capacity for distilling complex historical narratives into an easily digestible schema. We see this clearly in the introduction, where he proposes a tripartite structure of race, risk and security arcs as ways to think about the origins of what has only recently become known as the “drug problem”. We are also introduced to another key idea that drug laws function through controlling the circulation of goods, ie, they are regulatory systems. In drug control, inanimate objects – drugs – are not banned, but transactions that would otherwise constitute lawful economic activity are criminalised. This is about the control of personal property rights. The right to personal property is not explicitly eroded through prohibition, but some transactions in relation to them become impermissible and there is no legal recourse for the right to conduct these transactions. In outlining this, the entire premise of drug control shifts from one of a struggle between the forces of prohibition and legalisation to understanding legalisation and prohibition within a broader system of regulation.

Seddon refers to regulatory systems as ‘exchangespace’. […] The basic premise of exchangespace is that ‘market behaviour and regulation are not separate realms but two sides of the same coin’.

Seddon elaborates on this over the following chapters and in doing so demonstrates a depth of research and scholarship that is genuinely cross-disciplinary, bringing in economics, sociology, history, political economy as well as insights from criminology, regulation theory and socio-legal perspectives. There is, however, method to this, which shapes and is shaped by the development of a new conceptual framework. Drawing on the work of Clifford Shearing and others, Seddon refers to regulatory systems as “exchangespace”, and this is painstakingly outlined in Chapter Two. The basic premise of exchangespace is that “market behaviour and regulation are not separate realms but two sides of the same coin”. The dimensions of exchangespace can be summarised as:

  1. Regulation operates in networks consisting of multiple dimensions and participants.
  2. Nodes are a key element of networks and facilitate communication across them. Analysis of networks should, therefore, look at the nodes because these are the locus within a system where various resources are mobilised in order to govern effectively.
  3. Not all nodes exert the same amount or kind of power in the network. The most economically powerful nodes can distort the smooth operation of the entire system.
  4. Networks adapt overtime. Consequently, policy does not stand still, it evolves and emerges in often unpredictable ways.

Seddon encourages us to focus on the network conditions that led to increasing control of certain substances (what we know as drugs), whilst permitting or at least freeing the trade in others (coffee, alcohol and tobacco) and to view these as complex systems.

Seddon encourages us to focus on the network conditions that led to increasing control of certain substances (what we know as drugs), whilst permitting or at least freeing the trade in others (coffee, alcohol and tobacco) and to view these as complex systems. In complex systems, the outcomes of policy depend on understanding where the starting point is. However, identifying starting points is almost impossible, not least, as Seddon contends, because we don’t yet have the theory and methods at our disposal to do so. The best we can do, then, is to try and understand elements of the wider network; that is, which nodes are exerting power in which contexts while acknowledging that these systems are unpredictable and constantly changing. Seddon uses this framework to explain the origins of Cannabis Social Clubs in Catalonia and the complex politics behind the patchy implementation of Heroin Assisted Treatment. In this way, we can start to explain the ways in which, for example, overdose prevention centres have been established in some locations and not others, or why and how drugs were decriminalised in Oregon, a decision that may now be reversed.

Seddon demonstrates how the origins of the current system can be traced to colonialism […] in the nineteenth century, even if we cannot pinpoint the exact starting point.

A complex system like drug policy can never revert to an earlier stage of development. Oregon’s post-decriminalisation society will not be the same as its pre-decriminalisation society. Fortunately, however, complex systems do have path dependency, and so it is possible, as Seddon does in Part II (Chapters Four and Five), to outline the chain of events that has led to the contemporary global drug regulatory system. Seddon demonstrates how the origins of the current system can be traced to colonialism (the race arc) in the nineteenth century, even if we cannot pinpoint the exact starting point. The key lesson here is that we need to look East rather than West to understand this. Here, the Opium Wars of the nineteenth century are a key reference point.

Taking an exchangespace perspective we see that the Opium Wars (1839-1842) were more than just about one country (Britain) establishing a right to export its products (opium) to a large market (China). More accurately, they represented a military contestation that focused on the boundaries between legal and illegal trade – a contestation that lies at the heart of drug control. The burgeoning temperance movement proved a powerful node alongside increasingly powerful US economic interests, which contributed to the realigning of opium in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries as a product requiring control. The Opium Wars also represent – in the form of the second opium (Arrow) war – the first moment that drug control (as opium control) became a multinational affair. In this way we can draw a direct line from the Opium Wars to global drug prohibition fifty years later.

In Part III (Chapters Six and Seven) Seddon turns to the political nodes of the regulatory network, focusing on “what is at stake when drug laws and drug policy become a matter of political contestation”. The idea here is that within exchangespace, it is impossible to stand outside of politics, as the system is inherently political. Politics is a powerful node. This section draws heavily on Loader and Sparks’ conception of public criminology and the strategies that can be used to add coolant to heated debates.

To hand over decision making to experts is to abandon any hope for democratic politics as it replaces one system of domination (populist politics) with another (experts).

For Seddon, this should not simply mean that populist ideas – such as the “war on drugs” – are replaced with technocratic, evidence-based decisions. To hand over decision making to experts is to abandon any hope for democratic politics as it replaces one system of domination (populist politics) with another (experts). Arguably, that is why it has become more commonplace to speak of evidence-informed or evidence-inspired policy. However, Seddon provides a way out of that impasse by stating that “better politics” is required more than better evidence. This has two dimensions. First, we need a more careful analysis that focuses not only on the impact or harms of current drug policies (eg, criminalisation, stigmatisation, racist stereotyping) as they occur, but considers in depth and precision how the arcs of race, risk and security perpetuate this system. Secondly, on a practical level, a more cosmopolitan, comprehensive and inclusive deliberative democracy is required which can yield discernible change. Reforms in Catalonia and Oregon point to how this can be done, but also its precarity. Scaling it up and bringing in the voice of people who use drugs as part of a social movement is essential.

The text brings us almost full circle to how a better politics might lead to a more sophisticated, fairer form of market regulation.

Seddon points to the success of prison reform movements in France in the 1970s or the radical politics of mental health campaigning organisations which sought to foreground the voices of survivors of the psychiatric system as providing a blueprint. To this we could add decades of campaigning by disability rights activists, which have shown how positive change can occur with these strategies. There is no reason why drug policy should be any different. In this way, the text brings us almost full circle to how a better politics might lead to a more sophisticated, fairer form of market regulation. Ultimately, for Seddon, this means shifting the focus of social and political science away from the way the world is, towards the deeper thinking on the kind of world we want. This is the book’s challenge. It is us up to us to deliver.

Note: This interview gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Image credit: OneSideProFoto on Shutterstock.

Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab Capitalism – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 11/03/2024 - 10:18pm in

In Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab CapitalismSteffen Hertog critiques mainstream development models in the Middle East, focusing on state intervention and segmented market economies. Although Yusuf Murteza suggests the book under-examines neoliberalism’s prevalence, he finds its analysis on the state’s role in establishing the insider-outsider division in the economy nuanced and valuable.

Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab Capitalism. Steffen Hertog. Cambridge University Press. 2022.

Clusters of economic and political theorists have long been discussing how different actors prioritise and frame their understanding of “development”. Post-development and degrowth scholars such as Arturo Escobar, Gustavo Escobar, Wolfgang Sachs, and Jason Hickel announced the death of the mainstream development model as a project. They argued “the project of development” may not be equally beneficial to all societies, since the project carries ethnocentric and universalist dimensions which contribute to the hegemony of the West.

The ‘one size fits all’ idea of neoliberal development, which utilises finance and corporate capital, has gradually been replaced by alternative forms of development

The “one size fits all” idea of neoliberal development, which utilises finance and corporate capital, has gradually been replaced by alternative forms of development. Growing disillusionment with the Anglo-Saxon economic model increased the importance of examining alternative political and economic configurations both inside and beyond developed Western states. Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) theory’s significance can be grasped with its emphasis on existing similarities and differences within the institutions of developed economies. Recently, scholars have taken these insights seriously and benefited from the VoC framework to explain the reasons why political and economic institutions differ across societies. Discourse on the MENA region in terms of democracy and development may suffer from orientalist explanations that directly link religion and culture to the region’s political and economic stagnation. Steffen Hertog’s Locked Out of Development takes issue with what mainstream development scholars consider the political and economic inability of societies in the Middle East to take the Western route and realise neoliberal reforms in order to ensure economic development, productivity and innovation.

Neoliberal narratives suffer from a partial outlook. They trace the failures of development attempts by focusing on policymakers’ level of adherence to marketisation and privatisation.

Hertog’s main arguments throughout the book are threefold. First, neoliberal narratives suffer from a partial outlook. They trace the failures of development attempts by focusing on policymakers’ level of adherence to marketisation and privatisation. They consider ensuring faith in the market mechanisms of production and distribution systems as paramount. However, non-economic, country-specific problems matter. In the case of the Arab world, the deep dividing line of insider-outsider segmentation across societies has more explanatory power than classical narratives of having too much or too little market (81). Second, Hertog believes a comparative perspective situated within a global context carries crucial insights. The selected countries cannot be examined solely by focusing on within-region differences but should be considered within the global development trajectory and compared with developed countries (7). Third, the role of the state has a somewhat ambiguous position in development theory. The concept of a “developmental state” has added a further twist. The characteristics of the state and its symbiotic relationship with labour and the private sector need to be addressed when explaining factors contributing to the persistence of the Arab world’s development problem (8).

The role of the state has a somewhat ambiguous position in development theory

Hertog begins with a detailed examination of academic literature on the political economy of the Middle East, the varieties of capitalism approaches, and his conceptualisation of segmented market economies (SEME). The second chapter adopts a historical perspective and presents the case selected countries’ political and economic transformations after World War II. In the third chapter, Hertog reveals his argumentation of the SEME framework by bringing the state, labour market, business sector and skill composition to light. Detailed analysis of the country case studies follows, accompanied by SEME and future research directions. Lastly, Hertog sums up the reasons for the political and economic inability of the region to take the Western route.

Hertog argues that the VoC approach, with its emphasis on the heterogeneity of existing capitalisms, is useful to explain the unique characteristics of Arab capitalism. Different compositions of firms, the finance sector, networks, and the skill system create ideal-type interactions (those which typify certain characteristics of a phenomena) and lead to diversification within capitalism. The original VoC approach analysed several OECD countries from the developed world. In time, scholars used the explanatory power of VoC to explain the development performances of non-Western countries with specific modifications. Taking insights from recent accounts of VoC literature, Hertog believes the approach fits the Arab world well (8).

In broad terms, the state [in the Arab world] functions as the voice of insiders’ interests to quash any outsider’s attempt to reconfigure access to key resources.

There are two key dynamics in the region. As the second chapter discusses, the state has been a key actor in structuring the playing field between different interests to operate in the region (9). The interventionist and distributive characteristics of the state go hand in hand with the other dynamic, namely the persistence of insider-outsider division in the economy. In broad terms, the state functions as the voice of insiders’ interests to quash any outsider’s attempt to reconfigure access to key resources. Hertog warns that the nuanced structure of the SEME model applies only to the core members of the region, such as Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen. The key filter behind this selection of countries is their state-building projects between 1950 and 1970 (4-5).

Strategies of keeping public sector employment high with military jobs, large redistribution policies, food subsidies, and price controls are still prevalent in the region, demonstrating its nationalist and statist legacy.

Hertog finds the roots of his SEME model in Arab nationalism in the post-independence era. The state-building projects of the selected countries fused with nationalist and statist ideologies at the time. Discussion on the region’s long history brings up the question of path-dependence, which is used to describe the limiting power of past decisions over later trajectories. Hertog avoids engaging with these long-term theories, believing them unsuitable for a short book, and the key characteristics of the SEME model originated recently. Nationalisation policies and active intervention in the economy were characteristics of Arab nationalism (15). In state-building projects, Egypt and Syria set the parameters, which were later copied by other states. Strategies of keeping public sector employment high with military jobs, large redistribution policies, food subsidies, and price controls are still prevalent in the region, demonstrating its nationalist and statist legacy (28).

The detailed empirical discussion of the SEME is at the heart of the book. The framework is constituted by the state, labour market, business sector and skill system (9). The distributive character of a state can be located by examining the share of public employment, which remains high from a global perspective. Also, the state extensively regulates labour markets, holding key strongholds to access land and credit (29-30). Hertog argues these factors lead to segmented labour and private sectors, while keeping the skill level low. The presence of the state in the labour market ensures insider-outside division. Since there is little mobility, insiders rarely lose their position. Outsiders cannot reach to the welfare protection schemes by the state. This leads to social exclusion and an unproductive environment (32-48).

Hertog claims state intervention in the private sector creates unique opportunities for crony networks, whereby politically connected companies benefit from credits and licences.

Similar dynamics take place in the business sector, where large firms and clusters of small firms coexist (55). Hertog claims state intervention in the private sector creates unique opportunities for crony networks, whereby politically connected companies benefit from credits and licences. Business actors with outsider status engage in unproductive small-scale activities (58-60). The skill system needs to be thought of in relation to the segmented labour and business sectors. Low skill levels prevent mobility and limit innovation and technological development (69).

Overall, Hertog argues that state intervention in the region establishes the insider-outsider division in the economy. Hertog’s emphasis on bringing the state back into the analysis is beneficial. In the field of comparative politics, the idea of the state as an autonomous actor remained on the margins until the 1980s. The book’s limitations come in two forms. First, it doesn’t mention how global capitalist relations fit into the SEME. Hertog’s defence with the limitation of economic globalisation in the region may not offer a solution, since the dynamics of global capitalist accumulation depend on drawing materials from peripheral countries without contributing to them. Second, Hertog’s claim of neoliberalism’s low presence in the Arab world is dubious. Several scholars (Jason Hickel, Philip Mirowski) argue that states with strong capacity can implement the necessary reforms for deregulation and privatisation. Thus, the presence of neoliberalism and strong state capacity is not mutually exclusive. In the Middle East, we see a unique mixture of neoliberal policy reforms with strong state capacity. Even though Hertog constructs his own case, adapting earlier approaches to VoC and development topics and to explain the MENA region, policymakers, development specialists, and academics will find dry economic analysis alone is not enough. More nuanced analyses that consider the symbiotic interactions between the state, the business sector, and labour force are necessary. Only by doing this is it possible to acknowledge how politics mingle with economics, and to design alternative development programmes in response.

This post gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Image Credit: AlexAnton on Shutterstock.

Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? The Ethics of AI and the Future of Humanity – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 14/02/2024 - 8:00pm in

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam‘s Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? The Ethics of AI and the Future of Humanity examines the roots of racism in AI algorithms, tracing them to Enlightenment ideologies. Marta Soprana finds the book a densely-packed and thought-provoking caution on the dystopian consequences of our current trajectory of techno-racism, which we may still have time to avert.

Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? The Ethics of AI and the Future of Humanity. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam. Bloomsbury Academic. 2023.

Since the launch of ChatGPT by Open AI in November 2022, the debate surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in our everyday life has intensified. Although many recognise that AI has the potential to generate significant economic and social opportunities, its use raises substantial ethical concerns. Besides the misuse of personal data, particularly worrying are risks associated with the discriminatory outcomes of algorithmic decision-making, frequently reported in the media.

In his book Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? The Ethics of AI and the Future of Humanity, Arshin Adib-Moghaddam – Professor of Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies at SOAS University of London and Fellow of Huges Hall, University of Cambridge – addresses this issue by discussing how and why racism permeates algorithms and what a misogynistic and discriminatory AI means for the future of humanity. His position is clear: current social manifestations of AI are rooted in Enlightenment racism, and if nothing is done about it, the future for society and human security will be under threat. If techno-racism and its underlying “anti-human perfectionism” go unchallenged, he forewarns, we might face a dystopian future where Artificial General Intelligence systems will see humans as inferior and unworthy, threatening human beings’ very existence.

If techno-racism and its underlying “anti-human perfectionism” go unchallenged, [the author] forewarns, we might face a dystopian future where Artificial General Intelligence systems will see humans as inferior and unworthy, threatening human beings’ very existence.

The book’s stated ambition is to “contribute to the supervision of AI systems in accordance with shared ethical standards to ensure our individual human security”. It flags dangerous dilemmas created by AI which humanity never faced before and contextualises it in an historical analysis.

Adib-Moghaddam organises his analysis around five themes, one for each chapter, before concluding with a proposed manifesto for the future of AI. Chapter One (“Beyond Human Robots”) sets the stage for the core argument, as it explains how the widespread racism and bias that permeate today’s algorithms and society find their roots in the Enlightenment, which formalised and legalised a hierarchical system of discrimination between people based on race and gender. Positing that supervising machines and preventing algorithmic biases from destroying equal opportunity is first and foremost a philosophical challenge, the author argues that for AI to develop with human security, justice, and equality in mind we must reappraise the problematic legacies of the Enlightenment and work towards reforming its hierarchical and imperialistic system.

The widespread racism and bias that permeate today’s algorithms and society find their roots in the Enlightenment, which formalised and legalised a hierarchical system of discrimination between people based on race and gender.

Further elaborating on this point, in Chapter Two (“The Matrix Decoded”) he warns against the dangers of techno-utopianism, arguing that the various narratives surrounding the development of AI systems are imbued with ideas of positivism, causalism, and parsimony that help to explain how and why technology facilitates various forms of misogyny and discrimination. In particular, he contends that the controversial social and cultural legacies of the Enlightenment will continue to pollute both the thinking of software developers as well as the datasets feeding into AI systems, “as long as modern racism is accepted as part of our social reality”.

[Adib-Moghaddam] uses the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by a US air strike to warn of the dangers associated with automated, remote weapon systems and AI technologies

Across the remaining three themes, Adib-Moghaddam reiterates his warning about the dangers of the unsupervised development and usage of AI for humankind, as he describes the profound impact that racist and discriminatory AI technologies can have on society, human rights, international security, and the world order in Chapter Three (‘Capital Punishment), Chapter Four (‘Techno-Imperialism’) and Chapter Five (‘Death Techniques’). For example, he uses the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by a US air strike to warn of the dangers associated with automated, remote weapon systems and AI technologies, such as lack of accountability, bypassing of international law, and “democratization of death”.

The author concludes his book with a manifesto for the future. Advocating for a “GoodThink” approach, he calls for the decolonisation of AI and for infusing algorithms “with a language of poetic empathy, love, hope and care” in order for this technology to be a constructive rather than destructive force. While Adib-Moghaddam maintains that we are fully equipped to embrace the challenges posed by AI at this “pivotal juncture of our existence as homo sapiens”, he warns that we need to act now in a manner that integrates national and industry-led efforts to promote ethical and trustworthy AI with international UN-led initiatives.

We need to act now in a manner that integrates national and industry-led efforts to promote ethical and trustworthy AI with international UN-led initiatives.

With its philosophical approach to understanding how the past influences AI development and how actions in the present can help change the future of humanity, Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? offers a new and interesting perspective on one of the key questions that permeate today’s debate on the ethics and regulation of AI. In this thought-provoking book, the author strikes a good balance between his harsh assessment of the perils of uncontrolled techno-utopianism rooted in the problematic legacy of the Enlightenment and a somewhat encouraging view that the battle for humanity is not lost if we are able to seize the moment and work together to develop ethical AI systems based on equality and inclusivity.

While its relatively short length and catchy title may appeal to a large audience, Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? is not for everyone. In its less than 150 pages, Adib-Moghaddam packs so much food for thought that readers who are less well versed in philosophical studies and used to a more straightforward and linear argumentation may find this book somewhat difficult to grasp. They may require multiple reads to fully understand the intricacies of the philosophical schools and theories at the basis of the analysis and to digest the book’s core arguments. Still, if one is up to the challenge and wants a book that will make them think, Is Artificial Intelligence Racist? will not disappoint.

This post gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The LSE RB blog may receive a small commission if you choose to make a purchase through the above Amazon affiliate link. This is entirely independent of the coverage of the book on LSE Review of Books.

Image Credit: Gorodenkoff on Shutterstock.

What does the recent ruling on the Emergencies Act mean for your banking rights?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 01/02/2024 - 2:18pm in

A Federal judge ruled last week that the emergency banking measures taken to end the Ottawa convoy protest in 2022 contravened the protestor's rights. In this post I want to provide my reading of this particular ruling and what is at stake for Canadians and their bank accounts. 

To be clear, Justice Mosley's ruling touched on far more than the banking measures, and extended to the broader legality of the government's invocation of the Emergencies Act on February 14, 2022, subsequently revoked on February 23. However, since this is a blog on money, I'm going to limit my focus to the banking bits of the court ruling.

(By the way, I've written about emergency banking measures a few times before.)

To remind you, there were two emergency banking measures enacted in February 2022 that affected regular Canadians. The most well-known measure was the freezing of bank accounts. The RCMP collected the names of protestors, and forwarded these to banks and credit unions, which used this information to locate protestors' accounts and immobilize their funds. In the end, 280 bank accounts were frozen.

The second and less well-known banking measure was the requirement that banks share protestors' personal banking information with the RCMP and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), including how much money the protestor had in their account and what sorts of transactions they made.

Justice Mosley has ruled that these banking measures – both the freezing and the sharing – violated the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Specifically, they contravened Section 8 of the Charter, which specifies that everyone has the "right to be secure against unreasonable search or seizure."

The best way to think about Section 8 is that all Canadians have privacy rights. These rights cannot be trodden on by the government. The police can't conduct unjustified personal searches of your body or home, say by snooping on your credit card transactions. Nor can they seize your bank statements or your computer in order to gather potentially incriminating information on you.

This doesn't mean that a Canadian can never be subject to searches and seizures. Section 8 doesn't apply when the person who is subject to a search or seizure has no privacy rights to be violated. So for example, if I leave my old bank statements in the trash on the curb, it's likely that I've forfeited my privacy rights to them, and the police can seize and search them without violating Section 8 of the Charter.

An interesting side point here is that Canadians don't forfeit their privacy rights by giving up their personal information to third-parties, like banks. We have a reasonable expectation of privacy with respect to the information we give to our bank, and thus our bank account information is afforded a degree of protection under Section 8 of the Charter.

My American readers may find this latter feature odd, given that U.S. law stipulates the opposite, that Americans have no reasonable expectation of privacy in the information they provide to third parties, including banks, and thus one's personal bank account information isn't extended the U.S. Constitution's search and seizure protections. This is known as the third-party doctrine, and it doesn't extend north of the border.

Canadians can also be lawfully subject to searches and seizure by the police if these actions are reasonable, as stipulated in Section 8 of the Charter. There are a number of criteria for establishing reasonableness, including that a search or seizure needs to be authorized by law, say by a judge granting a warrant. In addition, the law authorizing the warrant has to be a good one. (Here is a simple explainer.)

Before we dive into why Justice Mosley ruled that the government's bank account freezes and information sharing scheme violated Canadians' rights, we need to understand the government's side of argument.

On the eve of invoking the emergency measures, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised that the government was "not suspending fundamental rights or overriding the Charter of Rights and Freedoms." He reiterated this a week later after the Emergencies Act had been revoked:

But what about the legal specifics of the banking measures? Were they compliant with the Charter, and how? Government lawyers argued from the outset that the requirement for banks to share personal banking information with the RCMP and CSIS did not violate Section 8 of the Charter. While the sharing order constituted a search under Section 8, it was a reasonable search, they said, and reasonable search is legitimate.

As for the freezes, and here things get more complicated, the government maintained that they did not constitute seizures at all, and thus weren't protected under Section 8. The government begins with a literal argument. The funds in the 280 frozen bank accounts were not taken or seized; rather, banks were simply asked to "cease dealing" with some of their customers in such a way that these customers never lost ownership of their funds. This was a mere freeze, the government claims, rather than a harsher sort of government "taking" of funds , say like a Mareva injunction, warrant of seizure, or restraint order, all of which are seizures under Section 8 of the Charter.

As back up, the government offered a more technical argument. According to Canadian legal precedent, it is only certain types of government searches and seizures that trigger Section 8 protections. These are laid out in a case called Laroche v Quebec (Attorney General). Specifically, only those seizures occurring in the process of an investigation and prosecution of a criminal offence are protected. The government maintains that the freezes it placed in February 2022 were not related to a criminal offence – they were merely designed to "discourage" participation in the protest – and so they were not the sorts of seizures protected by the Charter. (The government's full argument that it laid out for Justice Mosley here.)

The invocation of the Emergencies Act required the independent inquiry be launched, the results of which were released in February 2023. The commissioner of that inquiry, Justice Rouleau, ended up siding with the government's assessment of the legality of the bank account freezes. The freezing of accounts was "not an infringement" of section 8 of the Charter, wrote Rouleau, because they were not a seizure.

Here I'm going to briefly inject my own personal thoughts as a citizen blogger.

Look, I think it's a good thing that the government has various financial buttons at its disposal that it can press to lock or restrict my funds, like restraint orders. But I also think its a good thing that these buttons are subject to certain controls, one of which is that they must respect my basic rights, even in an emergency situation. I find it somewhat worrying that in this particular case the government seems to be arguing that it has at its disposal a new type of "immobilize funds" button that is completely exempt from charter oversight due to the fact that it, somewhat arbitrarily, escapes definition as a seizure. This seems like a distinction without a difference to me.
 
Disagreeing with both Justice Rouleau and the government's logic, Justice Mosley in his judicial review ends up siding with the counter-arguments deployed by two civil liberties organizations that opposed the government in the case. (Their respective arguments are laid out here and here).

First, regarding the sharing of information with the RCMP and CSIS, Mosley rules this constituted a search covered by Section 8. Contra the government, these searches were not reasonable, and thus they violated the protestors' Charter rights.

While the government had argued that the searches were reasonable due to their limited duration and targeted focus, the judge finds that they lacked an "objective standard." Banks only needed a "reason to believe" that they had the property of a protestor before reporting the information to the RCMP or CSIS, but according to Mosley this criteria was too wide and ad hoc to qualify as reasonable. Would a hunch or a rumour qualify as a "reason to believe"? Perhaps.

The searches were also unreasonable, according to Justice Mosley, because they had none of the other well-defined standards for reasonable search, including a lack of prior authorization for each search by a neutral third party like a judge. In February 2022 it was bankers, not judges, that carried out the searches, assembly line-like.   

As for the freezes, Justice Mosley disagrees with the government's arguments, finding that the freezing of bank accounts did indeed constitute a seizure of the sort protected by Section 8. Adopting the viewpoint of a regular Canadian, he first argues that a "bank account being unavailable to the owner of the said account would be understood by most members of the public to be a 'seizure'."

Mosley proposes an alternative opinion that it was the forced disclosure of the financial information by banks to the RCMP and CSIS that constituted a seizure. In this reading, what was being seized was personal payments and ownership data. The protestors had a "strong expectation of privacy" in these financial records, and thus Section 8 is applicable.

So to sum up, a Federal court has deemed that the bank accounts freezes placed on protestors in February 2022 were indeed seizures, and not some other strange sort of freeze-not-a-seizure, and therefore they were subject to the Charter. As for the searches, they were unreasonable (as were the seizures). The government will be appealing to the Federal Court of Appeal, so these arguments will be re-litigated. Stay tuned.

My take is that Justice Mosley's rulings are reasonable and helpful guidelines for future governments seeking to levy banking measures in subsequent emergencies. The ruling doesn't expressly ban the levying of bank freezes, and that's probably a good thing. Let's not forget that the requirement for banks to cease dealings with protestors, albeit illegal in this particular case as per Justice Mosley, was a fairly effective measure. The threat of having their money immobilized helped get the protestors to leave, right? And not a single person was injured. Think of bank account freezes as the domestic version of foreign sanctions, a way to bloodlessly defuse an emergency situation and avoid sending in the more deadly cavalry. This seems like a good tool, no?

The catch, as Mosley suggests, is that the government needs to tighten up the the process of freezing bank accounts come next emergency so that they are constitutional. How tight? One might argue that the standard for freezes shouldn't be as high as a regular restraint order on funds during a non-emergency. On the other hand, freezes shouldn't become some sort of dark tool for circumventing the Charter.

Random Walk: Memoir of an Itinerant – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 12/01/2024 - 11:46pm in

In Random Walk: Memoir of an Itinerant, economist Richard Dale reflects on his life and career, tracking his intellectual shift from a believer in free-market economics to a proponent of more stringent regulation. An accessible and engaging read, Dale’s autobiography shares significant insights for those interested in the complexities of financial markets, writes Nicholas Barr. 

Random Walk: Memoir of an Itinerant. Richard Dale. Tricorn Books. 2023.

Find this book: amazon-logo

Memoir of an ItinerantRichard Dale’s autobiography raises an interesting conundrum. He describes jobs in financial markets and academia (many, often multiple), homes (I lost count), properties contemplated (uncountable), academic disciplines explored (economics, law, finance), books authored (nine, including law and finance, and in retirement history and fiction).

The conundrum is whether the story is the “random walk” of the book’s title or something more deliberate. An early chapter describes Dale’s undergraduate days at LSE. Then, as now, LSE was about analytical training, aiming to give students broad, flexible skills applicable to problem solving in whichever areas they ended up. At the time, unlike now, there was relatively little teaching support – in some courses students were given a book list, ie, a list of books, in which they were encouraged to forage to complement lectures.

Dale used the resulting analytical self-sufficiency [from his undergraduate degree at LSE] to qualify as a barrister via self-study, posing the question of whether his account is less random than an early example of a portfolio career.

Dale used the resulting analytical self-sufficiency to qualify as a barrister via self-study, posing the question of whether his account is less random than an early example of a portfolio career. His early career was in financial markets, including working for the Moscow Narodny Bank, Cripps Warburg, and Rothschild’s, a combination of hard work and high living. Partly for health reasons, the second part was primarily academic, initially at the University of Kent, later at the University of Southampton. And threading throughout were entrepreneurial activities such as establishing the International Currency Review, setting up a credit rating service sponsored by the Financial Times, and suggesting and then editing the FT Financial Regulation Report – a life of career success and latterly of financial comfort.

That said, Dale is open about the role of luck (on which see Robert Frank’s excellent book). He describes a childhood heavily financially constrained, but as the book makes clear, the family had solid social capital, so his early life was eased by advice from family contacts and financial help from relatives for school fees (like his father, he went to Marlborough College). Luck also included legendary teachers at LSE, notably the economist Richard Lipsey and political philosopher Michael Oakeshott. As it turned out, a further piece of luck was the departure of his sponsor at Kent University just after Dale arrived, leaving him with an unstructured two years of funding, which he used to write his first well-received book (a reminder of the famous golfer Gary Player’s dictum that “he harder you work, the luckier you get”). Also lucky was the new appointment at Kent University of the eminent lawyer, Rosalyn Higgins, who supported Dale’s attempt to start an academic career, and sponsored him for a two-year Rockefeller Foundation Fellowship. A third view of Dale’s journey, therefore, is as a rolling stone (Mick Jagger was one of his fellow students).

Given my own work on the role of markets – when they work well, and when they don’t – I was particularly interested in Dale’s intellectual journey. In his words,

“Since LSE days I had always had a great admiration for Milton Friedman and the free-market economics of the Chicago School. However, over the years I became increasingly sceptical about the periodic boom-bust cycles of financial markets and the propensity of both equity and credit markets to succumb to bouts of euphoria and panic… I experienced for myself as a fund manager the mad boom-bust years of 1973/76 and I observed the absurd stock market valuations of dot.com and technology companies in the late 1990s which was followed by a spectacular collapse” (200).

That change of view, based on practical experience, was supported by academic research on market failures – imperfect information, behaviour different from narrow economic rationality, search frictions (eg, the fact that it takes time to find a new job) and incomplete contracts – recognised by multiple Nobel prizes this century.  Thus, over time Dale moved from a view based on what economists call a rational expectations model, to the more recent emphasis on behavioural finance.

A further reinforcement of Dale’s views is the distinction between risk (where the likelihood of different outcomes is well known, eg, the probability of breaking a leg during a skiing holiday) and uncertainty (where there is a clear risk but little knowledge of its likelihood, eg, future rates of inflation) or whether, when and how artificial intelligence will be beneficial or harmful.

A further reinforcement of Dale’s views is the distinction between risk (where the likelihood of different outcomes is well known, eg, the probability of breaking a leg during a skiing holiday) and uncertainty (where there is a clear risk but little knowledge of its likelihood, eg, future rates of inflation) or whether, when and how artificial intelligence will be beneficial or harmful. It is a fundamental error to conflate risk and uncertainty when analysing financial markets.

Dale became convinced of the need for more stringent regulation, and was prescient in predicting the 2008 financial and economic crisis.

Thus, Dale became convinced of the need for more stringent regulation, and was prescient in predicting the 2008 financial and economic crisis. In doing so, as one of very few experts to sound a warning, he faced considerable – at times personal – pushback, both from finance academics and from practitioners.

During his academic career, Dale straddled the worlds of scholarship and practice. He established a successful MSc in International Banking and Financial Studies at Southampton. In parallel was policy work, including talks at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, testifying before US Congressional Committees, membership of the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, specialist adviser to the Treasury and Civil Service Committee, and writing books and policy papers (on the last – to my great envy – he developed an ability to write fast with no need for drafts, a skill he shared with his LSE mentor Alan Day who was his tutor and subsequently supported some of his policy activities).

Which brings the story to the third part of Dale’s career, so-called retirement, giving him freedom to pursue a long-standing interest in history, writing a series of books, including on Walter Raleigh, those writings being sufficiently acclaimed to bring him election to a Fellowship of the Royal Historical Society.

Running through the career narrative is Dale’s personal life: a pre-university spell on a kibbutz, influenced by his father, a man with strong socialist views (which made for interesting subsequent conversations with a son working in finance); a long first marriage with children, including “too many jobs [and] too many house moves” and a long, happy second marriage in which he had, “only one employer … and owned only one house (plus a share in another)” (246). He had a very active social life, including meeting friends abroad, sometimes for shared holidays, often with lifelong friends from his student days and early career.

So, a career straddling economics, law and finance, retirement as historian with considerable holiday travel, and a full personal and social life – what, if anything, might be missing?

So, a career straddling economics, law and finance, retirement as historian with considerable holiday travel, and a full personal and social life – what, if anything, might be missing? Some readers might wish to see more context around external events. Dale recounts childhood memories of the 1952 Great London Fog and 1953 coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, but makes little mention of other events relevant to the economy and financial markets such as the collapse of the communist economic system in the USSR and Central and Eastern Europe and the highly consequential Deng Xiaoping economic reforms in the 1970s that underpinned the economic rise of China.

Also relevant are the dramatic changes in technology. Around the time Dale was an undergraduate, LSE installed a new machine; it was called a photocopier. Staff were sent on training courses on how to use and maintain it; students were not allowed anywhere near it. The timeline from there to Facetime (or listening to Test Match Special on a transatlantic flight) is also directly relevant to the operation of financial markets, for example the possibility of high-speed trading.

An engaging and non-technical read, accessible to anyone with an interest in financial markets.

All in all, this is an engaging and non-technical read, accessible to anyone with an interest in financial markets. For me, the core message of the book, which comes through loud and clear, is that financial market regulation matters big time. With complex products, sellers are often better-informed than buyers, creating space for misselling (think 19th century snake-oil salesmen). Precisely for that reason, products like pharmaceutical drugs are heavily regulated. With analogous complexities, the case for regulating financial products is equally compelling.

This post gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The LSE RB blog may receive a small commission if you choose to make a purchase through the above Amazon affiliate link. This is entirely independent of the coverage of the book on LSE Review of Books.

Image Credit: dgcampillo on Shutterstock.

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