Economy
Can China escape a deflationary trap? Economic outlook 2024
Last year was the most widely anticipated recession in history because tight monetary policy, slower government spending and higher oil prices normally spell doom. Yet total economic output (GDP) in both America and Australia kept growing in real (after inflation) terms. So, what can we expect in 2024? Will economists get it right this year Continue reading »
Summer: heat, cicadas and rising fees in private schools
Private school fee rises are as intrinsic to an Australian summer as the screech of cicadas. And instead of relaxing in the holiday heat, I find myself plagued with questions about whether or how to respond to the former. Do these fee rises even matter? Should I be pleased to see that prohibitive fees in Continue reading »
Biden vs. Trump: Whose Economic Plan Is Better for You? Trump...
Biden vs. Trump: Whose Economic Plan Is Better for You?
Trump failed to deliver on his number one campaign promise:
President Trump presided over a historic net loss of nearly 3 million American jobs, the worst jobs numbers ever recorded under an American president.
This is no fluke. America’s economy has almost always done worse under Republican presidents. A New York Times analysis found that since 1933, the U.S. economy has grown nearly twice as fast on average under Democrats.
Now Trump’s defenders claim it’s not his fault that the economy collapsed under his watch. It was the pandemic. But there are two big things wrong with this.
First, the pandemic recession was as bad as it was because of Trump. His failure to lead with any national strategy left America in chaos throughout 2020, long after other nations had developed coordinated testing, tracing, and social distancing plans that allowed them to reopen their economies.
But secondly, even before the pandemic, Trump failed to deliver on his economic promises. Job growth slowed under Trump.
America added more jobs in President Obama’s last three years than in Trump’s first three.
Even before the pandemic most middle-class American households saw their incomes go down under Trump.
Trump’s major economic policy was cutting taxes on the rich and big corporations. He promised it would result in $4,000 annual raises for workers. How did that work out? Did you get a $4,000 raise?
Republicans keep claiming that if we just cut enough taxes on the rich, the wealth will “trickle down.” But it never works. Wage growth slowed after Reagan’s tax cuts for the rich and big corporations. And the Bush and Trump tax cuts didn’t trickle down either.
These giveaways to the wealthy came at the expense of investments in infrastructure, education, and health care, making life more expensive and difficult for everyone who isn’t rich.
They also exploded the debt and deficit. Reagan oversaw a 186% increase in the national debt — the biggest percentage increase in over 70 years. The Bush and Trump tax cuts, that mostly benefited corporations and the rich, are the main reasons why America’s debt is growing faster than the economy.
Republican presidents have led us into the three worst economic crises of the last century, and Democrats led us out of them.
Republicans talk about running the country like a business, but they want to run it the way Trump ran his businesses: with massive debts, a string of failures, and payouts for the folks at the top, while workers get shafted again and again. Given Republicans’ track record, why would any hard-working American put their financial security in the hands of a Republican president ever again?
The remarkable global impact of the Chinese car industry: Trade beats war every time
Around 25 years ago, wise commentators said China may, in due course, be able to produce acceptable basic, manufactured white-goods but making motor cars that would sell globally was not conceivable. Far too many complex inputs went into making a modern family sedan compared to a refrigerator. As for landing a rover on the Moon Continue reading »
The great economy Trump left Biden
from Dean Baker We have been seeing numerous stories in the media about how people support Donald Trump because he did such a great job with the economy. Obviously, people can believe whatever they want about the world, but it is worth reminding people what the world actually looked like when Trump left office (kicking […]
Free Bus Passes Are Giving Indian Women More Financial Freedom
C. Parvati was born and raised in Bangalore, but she never had the opportunity to visit the temples and tourist sites because she could not afford to spend money on such recreational activities. “Now, I am able to take my children and show them these places even within my budget when school has holidays,” says Parvati.
What changed? She’s been able to save money since the Karnataka state government made public transportation free for women in June.
Karnataka is one of several Indian states that have recently implemented a free bus pass for women. The initiative is called Shakti, which in Hindi means “strength.” In 2019, Delhi was the first place in the country to provide women with complimentary tickets printed on pink paper, and earlier this year, the state administration reported that more than one billion have been used thus far. Other states that have launched similar programs include Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Telangana.
The purpose of such policies is to bring more women into the workforce by lowering the cost and simplifying the process of working and traveling. According to the World Bank, India has one of the lowest rates of female labor participation in the world, with less than 25 percent of women over the age of 15 employed as of 2022, a decrease from 27 percent in 2012. In India, men frequently restrict the financial options available to women. And although these same men may object to their wives working outside the home, free travel gives women a choice that they did not have previously. Though women are free to work, if their commute is too expensive or unpredictable, they frequently choose not to. The governments that have put the program into place say that it has been successful and they intend to extend it.
Women riding a bus in New Delhi. Credit: Pradeep Gaurs / Shutterstock
Often, marginalized women are those who have to work every day to feed their families, and are pressed for time with cooking, household chores and helping with elderly family members. Taking the bus helps them to save time and be efficient in their work. Without the bus, these women would walk on average three to five kilometers a day, which can cut down their annual earnings by up to a quarter.
“The convenience of the free bus saves them time and helps them in earning a double income,” says Tara Krishnaswamy, the co-founder of the non-governmental organization Political Shakti. Apart from saving money on their travel, the women are also able to take up extra work in the time they save, allowing them to earn more. According to Krishnaswamy, most of the marginalized women across the country depend on rations, a subsidized food program providing mostly rice and few necessities. The money the free bus rides save these women helps them buy nutritious food — like fruits, eggs or milk for their children — that is otherwise out of their reach.
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Vinay Sreenivasa, a member of the Bangalore Bus Commuters’ Forum, says the group has been pushing for the free bus ride program for two years. “We believe that employment and educational opportunities for women are hurt because of the unavailability of affordable transport, doing this will also put more women in the public life in the economy,” says Sreenivasa.
The number of people utilizing public transport has increased, as has the revenue of all four road transport corporations (RTCs) in Karnataka, thanks to the Shakti project. Ridership and the transport department’s revenue both increased following the introduction of this system. In the six months after the program’s launch, 6.2 million women in Karnataka — which includes the city of Bangalore — have taken advantage of it and saved a significant sum of money. By allowing women to achieve goals that were previously unattainable, the free bus fares boost the economy, contributing to spending that helps local businesses and even the tax system.
Female students also benefit from free bus ticket initiatives. Credit: Kavitha Yarlagadda
The initiatives in Telangana and Karnataka, which encourage women to apply for smart cards, could serve as a way to gather important data and could eventually develop into a national common mobility card. But since getting a smart card requires paperwork, this excludes marginalized women who may not be documented. Another state, Tamil Nadu, has eliminated this obstacle. Its plan involves no paperwork, and is straightforward and simple to apply, making it accessible to all women.
P. Yashoda, who works with the domestic workers union in Bangalore, feels that though the program there is helping them save on money and time, it has its limitations. “I have faced many situations when the conductor is rude to me and my male co-passengers question me about why this scheme is applicable only to women, when they’re also paying taxes,” says Yashoda. “This sort of disrespect and behavior is very unfortunate.” At the same time the program is drawing criticism from taxi and auto drivers, who have gone on strike in some cases over their fear of losing passengers.
Freedom of mobility is a fundamental right in India, and this initiative enables women to exercise that right. “The biggest and most important takeaway from this scheme for women is dignity, which earlier they didn’t have and were forced to ask their husbands for money to travel by bus. This initiative is helping them build their self-confidence and give them the dignity that they deserve,” says Krishnaswamy. Several sectors of society, including women’s advocacy organizations, transportation specialists and regular people, have applauded the initiative. It represents a forward-thinking move toward the creation of a more equal and inclusive society where women can use public services without restriction.
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This initiative is giving women the economic empowerment to do things for themselves that they always wanted to do but never did, as they always gave priority to others’ needs over their own. “Earlier when I had to travel to my village Narsampeta, in Telangana, it cost me Rs.1400 [about $17 US] per trip,” says Pallekonda Saroja, a domestic worker from Hyderabad. “Now I can buy something for myself by saving this amount.” Saroja’s daughter-in-law, Usha Rani, who works as a nurse in Hyderabad, commutes by bus daily, so she is happy about the introduction of this initiative in Hyderabad. “I can put aside the money I save for my kid’s higher education,” says a smiling Rani.
In addition to its material advantages, the Shakti plan has had a significant social influence. It opposes conventional gender norms and advances gender equality as well as women’s engagement in public life. Women’s growing visibility on public transportation is an important step towards normalizing women’s presence in all sectors of society. Many women say that the program gives them a sense of security when they travel. The program’s goal of increasing the number of women on buses fosters a safe atmosphere that lowers the risk of harassment. And in a patriarchal society like India, it’s giving women the financial ability to dream for their children’s bright future and to actually do something for their own benefit.
“I took the bus along with my friend today to run some errands. I was so happy, as this saved me Rs.100 and this means a lot to me,” says Uma Maheshwari, a housewife from Hyderabad, Telangana. “Now I can save more and buy something for my home.”
The post Free Bus Passes Are Giving Indian Women More Financial Freedom appeared first on Reasons to be Cheerful.
Sister of Headteacher Ruth Perry Demands Overhaul of How Work-Linked Suicides are Investigated
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The tragic suicide of headteacher Ruth Perry a year ago has led to a reckoning for the education sector, and demands for an overhaul of the school inspections system. But now calls for change are moving beyond Ofsted.
A coroner ruled last month December that work-related stress was a contributing factor to the Reading headteacher’s suicide, as Perry's school had just received a negative Ofsted inspection.
Inspections are currently paused until 22 January while the system is reviewed, and a new boss has been appointed. However, Perry’s sister Julia Waters, and mental health and safety campaigners, are calling for an step-change in suicide prevention across all workplaces.
No action was taken by the safety regulator, the Health and Safety Executive, in response to Ruth Perry's death - because suicide is not deemed a “reportable” incident under health and safety law, expert academic Prof Sarah Waters told Byline Times. Prof Sarah Waters, who is not related to Julia, has researched the issue of work-related suicides for over a decade.
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The Hazards trade union group, which has campaigned on this issue for nearly 20 years, estimates that there are 650 work-related suicides every year in the UK - equating to over 50 suicides linked to work every month. They also estimate that approximately 10% of all suicides are work-related.
“Many bereaved families experience a deep sense of injustice following a suicide death. The work-related factors that pushed their loved one to such desperate extremes are not taken seriously, no changes are implemented, and no lessons are learnt,” Prof Waters said.
Campaigners are drawing attention to “dangerous gaps” in the UK regulatory system where work-related suicides are still not recognised, investigated or prevented.
The UK regulator, the Health and Safety Executive is responsible for ensuring all workplaces are safe and that work-related deaths are prevented. Yet suicides are specifically excluded from its reporting systems, with the regulator noting: “All deaths to workers and nonworkers, with the exception of suicides, must be reported if they arise from a work-related accident [emphasis added].”
Suicides typically result in an inquest, which can lead then be referred to HSE or the workplace to implement recommendations. However, this does not happen consistently.
Julia Waters, sister of Ruth Perry, said in a statement to Byline Times that she was backing efforts to push HSE to investigate suspected work-related suicides, so that “meaningful systemic changes” are introduced to prevent future deaths.
England was the last of the four nations to require masks in schools following heavy resistance from the then Prime Minister and Education Secretary
Josiah Mortimer
“The inquest into my sister’s death has shone a spotlight on deep-seated flaws in Ofsted's schools inspection regime. But there is also a wider issue affecting all UK workers and workplaces: under current regulations, suicide is not officially recognised as a work-related death.
“The Health and Safety Executive is responsible for ensuring that schools, like all other workplaces, are safe. Yet, it does not ask for suicides to be reported and there is no investigation carried out in the aftermath of a suicide death.
"This is a potentially dangerous situation: employers are not required to put any preventative measures in place following a suicide death. They are not required to make any changes at all in the workplace to prevent future deaths,” Julia Waters said.
She added that there is no health and safety framework in place to report and monitor work-related suicide cases or to prevent further tragedies from occurring.
“I fully support the campaign to push the Health & Safety Executive to record and investigate every work-related suicide. We need to ensure that work is safe, that workplace practices are humane and that mental health is safeguarded for every single employee in every single workplace up and down the country.
“We need a rigorous health and safety system that is fit for purpose and that ensures that no other family has to face the devastation that we have,” Perry’s sister added.
Prof Sarah Waters added that it was absurd that employers aren’t obliged to report deaths by suicide, investigate their circumstances, or make any changes to workplace practices.
“While work-related stress has become a major public health concern with widespread policy intervention measures, a suicide [following] severe work-related stress is still treated within the UK regulatory system as a private and individual matter with no connections to work,” she said.
From GB News to Prince Harry and Brexit: Byline Times’ Biggest Stories from 2023
It was a busy one.
Josiah Mortimer
Recent cases of suicide where work or work pressures have been recognised as a contributory factor include those of firefighters, nurses, doctors, paramedics, construction workers and call-centre workers.
A forthcoming paper by Australian researchers puts the global figure of suicides relating to workplace difficulties at 10-13%, but suggests the actual numbers are likely to be far higher. The highest proportion of suicides worldwide occurs amongst working-age adults, many of whom are employed at the time of death.
A petition calling on government to introduce a Suicide Prevention Act has just reached 10,000 signatures. The petition includes a specific call for all work-related suicides to be recorded and investigated. For Paul Vittles who organised the petition, such a change is a "no-brainer". The Government is yet to respond but is expected to do so in the coming weeks.
A HSE spokesperson told Byline Times: “Our thoughts are with everyone who knew Ruth Perry. Suicide is not reportable to us under current regulations. A coroner can refer a case to HSE if they consider there is an ongoing risk to others – that did not happen in this case.”
When asked if they thought the current law was fit for purpose, the spokesperson added that the regulator’s role was not to comment on the law but to enforce it.
A recent article in the British Medical Journal by former BMA president Martin McKee and Prof Waters provided evidence of at least eight suicide cases where an Ofsted inspection was cited as a factor by an official source (coroner, police enquiry, family statement).
Update: An earlier version of this piece stated that Ofsted inspections had been paused 'indefinitely'. This was incorrect by the time of publication. They will be resumed on 22 January.
If you have been affected by the issues discussed here, you can call the charity Samaritans for free on 116 123, email them at jo@samaritans.org, or visit samaritans.org to find your nearest branch.
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We need to shift from ‘Indo-Pacific’ back to ‘Asia-Pacific’
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We spend billions on ‘wellness’ crap. Why?
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On the Australian economy, bulls and bears cannot both be right. 2024 will decide the fate of both economies and markets, a hard, soft or no landing. Global Outlook Bulls argue that the worst is over since the back of inflation has been broken. While elevated interest rates will not fall until next year, they Continue reading »