Donald Trump
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Does American Reluctance to Aid Ukraine Foreshadow a New Isolationism?
While President Biden and many in Congress support continued aid to Ukraine in their fight against Russia, American public opinion on this issue has, like so much else in the United States, become polarized along Democratic/Republican lines. At the moment, Republican opposition in the House of Representatives is holding up American military aid to Ukraine. President Biden has managed to send $300 million in emergency aid to Ukraine funded from cost savings from earlier aid packages. According to Politico, “The Pentagon has been unable to send additional weapons to Kyiv since December, when it ran out of money to replenish its stocks.”
This trend, of course, will directly impact the battle going on in Ukraine. It can also shed light on America’s feelings about NATO and international engagement in general. The question that arises from the polling data is: if the United States is reluctant to provide military aid to Ukraine how willing would it be to defend NATO allies from Russian attack?
Polling conducted by the AP-NORC in late February of this year, found American public opinion split with 37% saying that the US is providing too much assistance to Ukraine while 33% say the US is spending the right amount and 27% say the US is not providing enough assistance. Resistance to providing American aid to Ukraine is driven by Republican opposition. Fully 55% of Republicans say that America is spending too much on aid to Ukraine. Only 17% of Democrats say the US is spending too much on aid to Ukraine.
It would be a mistake to see Republican reluctance to support aid to Ukraine as a single issue. Rather, it can be seen to reflect a larger tend towards a GOP reluctance to respond to Russian aggression. The same February 2024 polling from the AP showed that only a modest 52% of Republicans support defending NATO allies as opposed to 67% of Democrats.
Former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has commented that he would not support NATO allies if they did not spend enough on their defence budgets. Though many Republicans may not agree with Trump’s harsh tone, current polling data indicates that many in his own party would be reluctant to defend NATO. Significantly 28% of Republicans in the AP-NORC polling say they would oppose supporting NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack.
Gallup polling also found mixed sentiments on NATO. While a 47% plurality backed American involvement in NATO, 16% argue that the US should decrease its support for NATO while 12% want the US to pull out of NATO entirely.
It is tempting to blame American reluctance to defend NATO allies on Trumpism. Certainly, Trump is a major factor here. However, it is also helpful to take a step back and view this moment in American foreign policy in context. Today, America’s role on the international stage is something that many take for granted. It was not always this way to put it mildly.
America was a reluctant partner to the Allied effort in World War I. Indeed, Democratic presidential candidate incumbent President Wilson successfully ran for re-election in 1916 on the slogan of “he kept us out of war.” Following World War I, America retreated from the world’s stage.
Isolationism was a powerful force in American politics in the 1930s and early 1940s, when the slogan that Donald Trump employed in the 2016 presidential campaign “America First” was widely used. Though the phrase first appeared in President Wilson’s 1916 re-election campaign, it truly came to national prominence when the name was adopted by the America First Committee, established in 1940, which lobbied to keep America out of any foreign wars. The Committee argued that no foreign power could defeat the United States and furthermore that a Nazi victory over Great Britain would not negatively impact the United States.
Support for the Committee was strong at the grassroots level and in the halls of Congress. At the height of its power, the Committee had 800,000 members and was backed by both Republicans and Democrats. Its most prominent champion was the aviator Charles Lindbergh, the first person to fly solo across the Atlantic and regarded by many as a Nazi sympathiser.
The German victories in the spring of 1940 did not put a dent in American isolationism. Only Franklin Roosevelt’s superb political and communications skills allowed the US to support Britain in 1940 and 1941. It took the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December of 1941 to catapult the United States into World War II.
American support of isolationism this time round is less widespread, being based primarily in one political party. This is good news for those who want America to continue to play a role on the global stage. However, given the nature of the American political system, a committed majority in either house of Congress can effectively check a President’s foreign policy initiatives.
So, while the current polling does not necessarily foreshadow a return to American isolationism, it does, along with a reading of American history, strongly suggest that America’s role on the international stage is not guaranteed.
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What Do the 2024 ‘Super Tuesday’ Exit Polls Tell Us About Trump’s Chances in November?
The number of states across the United States holding primaries on the first Tuesday in March have earned the name “Super Tuesday” for this stop on the electoral calendar. The results on Super Tuesday have traditionally propelled a candidate towards their party’s nomination. The big Democratic winner on Super Tuesday 2020 was Joe Biden, who won decisively over his challenger Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont. Biden’s dramatic win was best summed up by CNN analyst Van Jones when he said that because of his performance on Super Tuesday, Biden went from being “a joke to a juggernaut.”
The big Republican winner of Super Tuesday this year is former President Donald Trump who won everywhere except in the liberal state of Vermont. Trump defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley by 50 percentage points or more in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. As a result of her poor showing in the Super Tuesday states, Haley ended her campaign. Furthermore, Senator Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, announced his support for Trump. McConnell had been critical of Trump in the past for his actions in the insurrection at the US Capitol in January 2021. McConnell’s swift endorsement of Trump after Super Tuesday indicates that Trump’s dominance of the Republican party is absolute.
So, now the rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is on.
One of the more interesting aspects of politics on both sides of the Atlantic are exit polls. These are the questions that pollsters put to those who have just voted about what factors went into their decision-making process and what issues are important to them. CNN conducted Super Tuesday exit polling in the states of California, North Carolina, and Virginia. The mix of states gives us a balanced view as California is a solidly Democratic state, North Carolina is a swing state and Virginia leans towards the Democrats. Given the fact that Democrats dominate California, it makes sense to focus this analysis on North Carolina and Virginia as they are both competitive states.
In North Carolina, fully 63% of GOP primary voters feel that Trump would be fit for the presidency even if he is convicted of a crime. 55% of GOP voters in Democratic-leaning Virginia believe the same.
When asked if they were part of the MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement, the code word for Trumpism, 57% of voters in Virginia say they are not part of the MAGA movement as do 52% of those in North Carolina.
Some pollsters argue that asking voters about their allegiance to the MAGA movement is a way of measuring their likelihood of voting for Trump. I disagree here. While there are voters who understand the MAGA acronym, most voters do not. A more predictive question is to ask if Biden was legitimately elected in 2020. This question goes to the heart of Trump’s campaign far more than asking about the MAGA acronym. In North Carolina, fully 63% of GOP voters feel that Biden did not win legitimately in 2020 while 50% of Virginia GOP voters hold this view.
Social issues in America also play a role here. Since the US Supreme Court ruled in the Dobbs case in June of 2022 overturning Roe vs. Wade, reproductive rights have been once again thrust into the political debate. Abortion opponents in recent months have been pushing for a national ban on abortions. In Virginia, 54% of GOP voters oppose such a ban while in North Carolina 52% of GOP voters support a national ban on abortions.
Were there any bright spots for Haley on Super Tuesday? She did win the state of Vermont and did better than average with college educated GOP voters (39% in North Carolina and 50% in Virginia) and with GOP voters who describe themselves as moderates (57% in North Carolina and 62% in Virginia). These achievements are meaningless. The bottom line is that Donald Trump trounced Nikki Haley and his control of the Republican party is unchallenged.
Some Washington observers have looked at the Super Tuesday results and concluded that they represent major problems for Donald Trump. Their logic is that if Trump loses 20% of the GOP vote in a swing state such as North Carolina, then it is an enormous potential win for the Biden team. This point of view assumes that the 20% of the electorate who voted for Haley will cross the aisle to vote for Biden. The exit polling data does to some extent support this argument, as 58% of Haley voters in North Carolina say they would not vote Republican regardless of who the nominee is.
President Biden has already begun to reach out to Haley voters. Right now, they may be susceptible to persuasion efforts. The abortion issue is likely to be his best way to reach these voters. Unfortunately, for the Biden team, a long and polarizing general election lies ahead. Come November, I believe few Haley voters will be willing to vote Democratic. That is the bad news for the Democrats. The good news for the Democrats is that the election is likely to be so close that it will not take many disaffected Haley voters to tip the scales in Biden’s favour.
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