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Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do about It – review

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 30/11/2023 - 9:58pm in

In Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do about It, Erica Thompson explores how mathematical models are used in contexts that affect our everyday lives – from finance to climate change to health policy – and what can happen when they are malformed or misinterpreted. Rather than abandoning these models, Thompson presents a compelling case for why we should revise how we understand and work with them, writes Connor Chung.

Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do about It. Erica Thompson. ‎Basic Books. 2022 (Hardback; 2023 paperback).

Find this book: amazon-logo

Book cover of Escape from Model LandWorld is on track for 2.5°C of global warming by end of the century.” “US recession odds are falling fast.” “New wave of Covid predicted as UK’s return to school and social mixing hit.” Amidst the challenges of recent years, mathematical modelling has become an ever-more-important tool for understanding our world. Done right, this can empower us. Distilling complexity into bite-size pieces, after all, can be a key step towards changing things for the better.

Embedded within every model are certain assumptions about how the world works. Sometimes, they do the job. Yet, other times, our visits to model land go awry. Thompson fears that modern society never learned to tell the difference

Yet modernity’s faith in modelling has come with a dark side, suggests statistician Erica Thompson in Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do about It (Basic Books: 2022). Embedded within every model are certain assumptions about how the world works. Sometimes, they do the job. Yet, other times, our visits to model land go awry. Thompson fears that modern society never learned to tell the difference, and that as a result, we’re becoming trapped in a mirror-world of our own making.

The core problem? That it’s all too easy to approach models as sources of objective scientific fact. Yet “[s]uch naive Model Land realism,” Thompson warns, “can have catastrophic effects because it invariably results in an underestimation of uncertainties and exposure to greater-than-expected risk.” “Data, that is, measured quantities, do not speak for themselves,” and at nearly every stage of finding the story, the world finds ways of seeping in.

It’s all too easy to approach models as sources of objective scientific fact.

Let’s say, for example, you want to know how climate change will impact GDP. A preeminent tool for doing so is the DICE model family. As recently as 2018, its factory settings concluded that global warming of 4˚C by 2100 would reduce global economic output by only around 4%. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meanwhile, has warned that such warming would bring about “high to very high” planetary risks “in all reasons for concern.” So how does one conclude that a world of cataclysmic weather, of cities swallowed up, of climate-driven refugee and food crises would barely register in the economic metrics?

First, there’s what’s fed into the model: since costs and benefits of building a solar farm or passing a clean energy regulation don’t play out all at once, one must instruct a model how much to value the present versus the future. This variable (one of many dials to which DICE is highly sensitive) is called a “discount rate,” and no amount of math can hide the fact that it’s ultimately a moral judgment. As its main creator, Yale economist and Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, has himself written, “[t]he choice of discount rates is central to the results” – DICE can be made to say just about anything depending on what inputs are chosen. Relatedly, there’s what’s not fed into a model: models are informed by pre-existing knowledge. As a consequence of history, less economic and climactic data are readily available from the developing world, for instance.

Models are informed by pre-existing knowledge. As a consequence of history, less economic and climactic data are readily available from the developing world

Then follows the construction of the model itself.  As economist Nicholas Stern and co-authors point out in a recent paper, certain presumptions of rational actors, of market efficiency, and of exogenous technological progress are embedded into DICE’s fundamental wiring. More broadly, Thompson notes, DICE takes as granted that “the burden of allowing climate change can be quantitatively set against the costs of action to avoid it, even though they do not fall upon the same shoulders or with the same impact.

Models are by nature parsimonious: their utility derives from reducing complex phenomena to a much smaller set of parameters. Yet the real world is full of higher-order impacts (good and bad) beyond what gets specified in the math

Then, there’s how results are generalised to the world at large. Models are by nature parsimonious: their utility derives from reducing complex phenomena to a much smaller set of parameters. Yet the real world is full of higher-order impacts (good and bad) beyond what gets specified in the math. And when models set the bounds of what’s possible, viable, or optimal (DICE, Thompson points out, is enshrined in policy analysis pipelines at some governmental and intergovernmental agencies), nuance risks being lost in translation: “The whole concept of predicting the future can sometimes end up reducing the possibility of actively creating a better one.”

None of this is to say that DICE is useless. Assumptions, even simplistic ones, are necessary for making decisions about complex phenomena. But at the same time, they indelibly embed the modeller in the modelled, and we get nowhere by ignoring this reality.

Thompson isn’t the first to point out that model-making is a deeply human endeavour. But it is in these case studies of present-day debates in the modelling community, as informed by first-hand expertise, that her work really shines. Alongside DICE, Thompson deftly pries open black box after black box in cases ranging from financial markets to public health to atmospheric dynamics, finding in each case that turning morality into a math problem doesn’t purge the human touch. It only buries it just below the surface.

Models emerge as ‘tools of social persuasion and vehicles for political debate’ as much as they are quantitative processes

Models emerge as “tools of social persuasion and vehicles for political debate” as much as they are quantitative processes. And since “we are all affected by the way mathematical modelling is done, by the way it informs decision-making and the way it shapes daily public campaigns about the world around us,” it becomes a real challenge for modern democratic society when models are insulated from understanding or accountability.

The easiest response at this point might be to surrender – to declare that the ineffability and complexity of the world makes mathematical modelling inadequate. And yet… there’s also the pragmatic reality that, amidst compounding crises, models have quite simply proven useful. The empirical record has largely vindicated scientists’ (and, for that matter, literal fossil fuel companies’) climate predictions. Energy system simulations from Princeton played a key role in passing the Inflation Reduction Act, one of the most globally significant pieces of climate legislation to date. And modelled pathways from the International Energy Agency are playing key roles in guiding a rapid buildout of clean energy – and in challenging fossil fuel expansion.

How does one ensure that, in grappling with the social nature of modelling, the baby isn’t thrown out with the bathwater?

History, after all, is full of seemingly progressive (and indeed radical) critiques of objectivity, scientific consensus, and expert practice that end up merely reinforcing the status quo: just take the long history of social constructivist scholarship being used by allies of the tobacco and fossil fuel industries to support and justify their misinformation campaigns. Meanwhile, the climate denialist camp has long had the reliability of climate modelling in their sights. So how does one ensure that, in grappling with the social nature of modelling, the baby isn’t thrown out with the bathwater? It’s a tough needle to thread, yet something Thompson manages to do with grace. Just as there is “a problem in trusting models too much,” she writes, “there is equally a problem in trusting models too little.” Although “failing to account for the gap between Model Land and the real world is a recipe for underestimating risk and suffering the consequences of hubris,” she counters that “throwing models away completely… lose us a lot of clearly valuable information.”

More transparency and intentionality about the role of expert judgement, Thompson suggests, might help close the ‘accountability gap’ between the models and the humans acting on them

This may be the book’s most valuable contribution: it’s ultimately a call not to abandon model land altogether but instead to become better travellers. This begins with seeing the social nature of models as a feature, not a bug. More transparency and intentionality about the role of expert judgement, Thompson suggests, might help close the “accountability gap” between the models and the humans acting on them. Similarly (echoing a rich literature in the philosophy of science), she notes that greater institutionalised diversity of methods and standpoints might result in fewer unseen biases and blind spots.

Ultimately, this book is a plea for humility. It’s wrong, Thompson tells readers, to presume that we’ve somehow created the capacity to transcend the limits of human rationality. Instead we must realise that “taking a model literally is not taking a model seriously,” as Peter Diamond noted in his Nobel acceptance speech – that only by cultivating an ethos of responsibility can we truly treat our creations with the care they deserve.

Such a conclusion may be uncomfortable, but it’s also deeply pragmatic advice for better modelling, better truth-seeking, and better public reason in an empirical age. Modellers, scientists, policymakers, and more would do well to take it to heart.

This post gives the views of the author, and not the position of the LSE Review of Books blog, or of the London School of Economics and Political Science. The LSE RB blog may receive a small commission if you choose to make a purchase through the above Amazon affiliate link. This is entirely independent of the coverage of the book on LSE Review of Books.

Image Credit: Mingwei Lim on Unsplash

Ben Gurion Canal: US Supports Israel’s Gaza War Over A Trade Route

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 30/11/2023 - 8:22am in

The U.S. and Israel have been planning the construction of brand-new trade routes, which are only possible through normalization agreements signed between Tel Aviv and the Arab World.

So, what is the Ben Gurion Canal, India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, and why is this so important to Washington’s considerations when backing the current Israeli onslaught on Gaza? Could the reason the U.S. is supporting Israel’s war against Gaza, full force, be because of a trade route?

Lately, there has been some talk of what is known as the ‘Ben Gurion Canal’ Project, which would essentially be an alternative trade route created through Israel-Palestine, which would be inorganically carved out of the earth to replace Egypt’s Suez Canal, which of course is crucial to international shipping at this point, and would bring in significant revenue for the Israelis.

In fact, after Israel and the United Arab Emirates normalized ties in 2020, there was a lot of talk about bringing this project to the forefront of the economic cooperation between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Then, in 2021, there was even more chatter about this as the United Arab Emirates and Israel wanted to reap the benefits of providing an alternative trade route to the Suez Canal.

Yet there were many issues at hand, including the environmental costs. And, of course, the fact that Saudi Arabia had not normalized ties with the Israelis and to make such a project work without any problems, mainly due to the waterways that ships would have to pass through to enter the canal, Saudi Arabia was going to have to normalize ties.

The Ben Gurion Canal project is not a new idea. According to leaked documents, in 1963, the U.S. proposed using some 520 nuclear bombs to make it a reality. The proposed trade route would run from the port city of Eilat and head north. The canal that would have to be dug would have been even longer than the Suez Canal. The U.S. and Israel didn’t go through with the project for several reasons.

However, something that was being actively discussed before the October 7 Hamas attack was the possibility of creating a land route that would run through Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories through the Port of Haifa into Europe. Called the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, the route would have revolutionized trade and was a major item on the agenda of the G20 summit in September. The U.S. was determined to make the plan a reality to shape what Benjamin Netanyahu called at the United Nations General Assembly, recently the New Middle East, and was integral to the U.S. plan to combat China and its Belt and Road Initiative.

The trade route all went up in flames with the Hamas-led attack on October 7, undermining international confidence in Israeli security. To make their project work, the U.S. and Israel would have to crush Hamas and crush Gaza and any Palestinian resistance that ever again challenged the objectives of the United States in the Middle East.

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe.’ Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

The post Ben Gurion Canal: US Supports Israel’s Gaza War Over A Trade Route appeared first on MintPress News.

Empires Are No Gentlemen

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 22/11/2023 - 12:59am in

The U.S. has pursued a sort of climate diplomacy in a void.

Biden’s Selective Outrage

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 14/11/2023 - 11:00pm in

Joe Biden’s response to the Hamas attacks of October 7 was to fuse the wars in Israel and Ukraine into a single struggle. Immediately after he returned from his visit to Tel Aviv, where he had both literally and figuratively embraced Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden addressed the US public from the Oval Office. “You know,” he said, “the assault on Israel echoes nearly twenty months of war, tragedy, and brutality inflicted on the people of Ukraine.” Those echoes sound more and more discordant as Israel’s retaliation becomes ever bloodier. The accusations that Biden fired then at Vladimir Putin have been ricocheting back, damaging both his own moral authority and international solidarity with Ukraine.

Biden was not wrong to imply that what Hamas did to civilians in Israel was morally comparable to the atrocities the Russians inflicted on Ukrainians in Bucha and other towns they invaded. The president’s political calculations were also logical enough. Funding for Israel’s invasion of Gaza is a popular bipartisan cause. Support for Ukraine is not. Shortly before October 7, around half of the Republicans in the House of Representatives opposed the White House’s request for a minor supplementary aid package of $300 million for Ukraine. By linking Ukraine so closely to Israel, Biden was clearly hoping to use one political appeal to boost the other. The energy unleashed by a shared determination to rally around Israel would galvanize the right’s flagging enthusiasm for Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression.

The opposite is happening. The pairing of Israel and Ukraine has not created a single moral cause. It has exposed a double standard. From the early days of Putin’s war on Ukraine, as evidence began to emerge of the extensive war crimes committed by his forces, it was clear that there was a weak spot in America’s accusations of Russian depravity. The US has a history of deep ambivalence toward war crimes—evident in, for example, its refusal to accept the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Its inconsistency on this score has long threatened to undermine the belief, so important to the struggle being waged by the people of Ukraine, that Putin is violating not just territorial borders but moral boundaries. For Putin it is good news indeed that the US, so fierce in its denunciation of his attacks on civilians, has been so forbearing in its attitude to similar assaults on Gaza. His cynical belief that ethical standards are just weapons in the propaganda war is being vindicated.

In the story that Biden wanted to tell in his TV address, Israel’s war against Hamas and Ukraine’s against Russia are equally intertwined with the interests of Americans at home: “Making sure Israel and Ukraine succeed is vital for America’s national security.” What makes them so important, he suggested, is not just reality but perception. The issue in both cases is not only what the US does but what it is seen to stand for: “Beyond Europe, we know that our allies, and maybe most importantly our adversaries and competitors, are watching.” One of the most gleeful observers must surely be the ruthless killer in the Kremlin, for what the world is seeing is a painful attempt to face in two directions at once.

*

There has been nothing secret about Israel’s intent to punish the whole population of Gaza by depriving them of electricity and water. On October 9 the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, announced a “complete siege” of the Strip. “There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel.” The following day the Israeli Army’s coordinator of government activities in the territories, Major General Ghassan Alian, addressed the population of Gaza in Arabic: “Human animals must be treated as such. There will be no electricity and no water. There will only be destruction. You wanted hell, you will get hell.”

We do not have to guess how the Biden administration would have responded to such statements had they come from Moscow rather than Tel Aviv. In November 2022 Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, spoke to the security council about Russia’s destruction of civilian infrastructure in Ukrainian cities, which had left millions of people without power or clean water:

It is hard to overstate how horrific these attacks are…. I felt that toll when I met a ten-year-old named Melina, who lived in a facility where displaced families were gathered to prepare for a bitterly cold winter. A facility which itself had once been hit and damaged by Russian missiles.

Later that month the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, used even stronger language to condemn Russian attacks on vital infrastructure: “Heat, water, electricity—for children, for the elderly, for the sick—these are President Putin’s new targets. He’s hitting them hard. This brutalization of Ukraine’s people is barbaric.”

When the target is Ukraine, the Biden administration has apparently endorsed efforts to prosecute Putin for attacks on civilian infrastructure. In March Biden explicitly supported the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin on charges that he had committed war crimes, even though, as Biden acknowledged, the US itself refuses to be subject to the court. In July, when the US began to share evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the ICC, The New York Times reported that “American intelligence agencies are said to have gathered information including details about decisions by Russian officials to deliberately strike civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.” Assuming such reports are accurate, this means that the Biden administration has been actively helping the ICC prepare a possible indictment of Putin for deliberately depriving civilians of electricity and clean water. 

Ukraine has already convicted some captured Russian soldiers of war crimes. In January The Washington Post reported that these included “two who admitted shelling residential buildings in the first weeks of the war.” The US has repeatedly asked the international community to pay attention to the visual evidence of what bombs do to the places where ordinary people—and especially children—try to live their lives. In July, for example, Thomas-Greenfield told the UN security council that “Russia’s forces have rained missiles down on Ukraine causing unconscionable death and destruction. We have all seen the images of bombed-out homes and schools and playgrounds.”

*

The Biden administration has, moreover, gone further than accusing Russia of war crimes; it has suggested that countries supplying Russia with weaponry used against Ukraine may face the same charges. In January, while accompanying Biden on a state visit to Mexico, the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said that Iran had chosen “to go down a road where their weapons are being used to kill civilians in Ukraine and to try to plunge cities into cold and darkness, which from our point of view puts Iran in a place where it could potentially be contributing to widespread war crimes.”

In July Sullivan told NBC News where America’s “moral authority” in relation to Ukraine comes from. He implicitly conceded that it did not rely on international treaties, since the US has not signed some of them. It came, he suggested, from the obvious unacceptability of Russia’s decision to place Ukraine “under a brutal, vicious attack…with missiles and bombs raining down on its cities, killing its civilians, destroying its schools, its churches, its hospitals.” The implication is clear: the moral authority of the US rests on its opposition to certain kinds of violence, specifically the deliberate destruction of civil infrastructure and the killing of civilians with bombs and missiles. If this so, the foundations of American moral authority now seem very shaky indeed.

Each recorded fatal Israeli airstrike on Gaza since October 7 has reportedly caused an average of ten civilian deaths. The Biden administration has acknowledged that killing innocent people at this rate is unacceptable. As Blinken put it on a visit to India, “Far too many Palestinians have been killed; far too many have suffered these past weeks.” By the logic it applied to Iran, the US has to take responsibility for its indirect part in those deaths. Yet there is no evidence that it is willing to hold itself to the moral standards it insists on for others—and very little evidence either that the influence it seeks to wield behind the scenes in its dealings with Netanyahu has had much effect on the ground in Gaza. The administration’s tacit moral case—that its backing for Israel’s war allows it to save Palestinian lives by restraining what Biden, on his visit to Tel Aviv, called “an all-consuming rage”—seems more and more like wishful thinking.

Ukrainians must have a wish of their own: that Biden had left them out of it. He has done their cause no favors. The Gaza crisis has already knocked Putin’s war off the front pages and shoved it down the list of priorities for most Western governments. As the conflict in Ukraine looks increasingly attritional and settles into a bloody stalemate with no obvious endpoint, it has become harder for democracies to sustain the idea that this is not a proxy war between power blocs but a genuine struggle for decent values and an international order based on universal laws. What will those Western governments say this winter when Putin again tries to destroy Ukraine’s power grids? Can they say, as they have before, that these attacks are horrific and barbaric? Or must they now preserve an awkward silence because such language has lost the power to express a shared sense of revulsion at all inhumane acts, whoever perpetrates them?

The post Biden’s Selective Outrage appeared first on The New York Review of Books.

Defying Tribalism

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 12/10/2023 - 11:00pm in

For almost all of its thirty-year duration, it seemed quite natural to think of the conflict in Northern Ireland, unfolding just a few dozen miles away from my hometown of Dublin, as an anachronism. The local joke was that when planes landed at Belfast airport, the pilot announced, “Welcome to Belfast. Put your watches back one hour and three hundred years.” This was part of the fascination for outsiders of what was otherwise a rather intimate catastrophe. The Troubles seemed a strange temporal regression, a rip in the fabric of European history through which the religious wars of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries had entered into the enlightened, secular present. White Christians who spoke the same language, lived cheek by jowl, and mostly watched the same movies and TV shows were not supposed to be willing to kill each other because their ancestors had taken different sides in the Reformation.

It was not so much the violence itself that seemed archaic—there was plenty of that around elsewhere in different forms. It was, rather, the way violence appeared as merely the starkest manifestation of a tribalized society. Tribalism in this sense (the term being otherwise rather insulting to most tribal peoples) is not at all the same thing as political partisanship. There are three important differences. Tribalism spills beyond the strictly political arena into parallel assumptions about history, geography, economics, and, of course, religion. Unlike partisanship, it makes the ethnic or social group, rather than the nation or the state, the primary locus of belonging. And neither side in this (typically binary) contest truly accepts the legitimacy of an electoral defeat. Being outvoted is understood not as a disappointment but as an existential threat.

These differences were—and to an extent still are—apparent in Northern Ireland, but they no longer look like distinguishing features that mark it as a unique kind of political space in the democratic world. Its holdovers have turned into harbingers. The throwback now feels more like a foretelling. What seemed in the 1970s and 1980s like a very niche retro political fashion is now all the rage.

Max Weber defined a nation as “a community of sentiment which would adequately manifest itself in a state of its own.” But in Northern Ireland it became all too obvious that “a community of sentiment” can be formed and sustained by distrust and dislike of another community’s sentiments. Where this feeling becomes definitive, the idea of the state becomes profoundly uncertain. Thus the Troubles are now—and not in a good way—everybody’s trouble: there are, in the United States and Europe, powerful forms of mass political identity that do not “adequately manifest” themselves in loyalty to the institutions, laws, and values that make a democratic state possible.

Tribalism is attractive to politicians, because in many ways it is easier than democracy. It abolishes democracy’s inconvenient demand for accountability: failure to deliver real benefits to one’s community is forgivable so long as the other side is faring worse. As we saw in Northern Ireland, awful consequences—up to and including killing, maiming, and economic collapse—don’t diminish the power of tribalism. They enhance it, because suffering deepens the sense of victimhood that fuels this kind of politics. Self-harm and self-pity form a feedback loop of endlessly renewable political energy. And this perpetual motion machine is also driven by revenge. If you hurt the other side, they will hurt you back, and when they do they prove themselves to be the incorrigible enemies you always knew they were. Atrocities, even when they are committed by a tiny minority of people, cease to be individual crimes that should be punished by law and become sources either for collective outrage (if they did it to us) or for collective excuses (if we did it to them).

But perhaps the greatest advantage of tribalization is that it solves the problems of identity. The phrase “identity politics” is a misnomer. Tribal politics do not in fact deal in collective identities, which are always complex, contradictory, multiple, and slippery. They reduce the difficult “us” to the easy “not them.” They set up some rough (and often arbitrary) markers of difference and then corral real collective experiences and histories within the narrow limits they define. They draw crude self-caricatures and then use them as passport photographs. The true colors of a community’s life may be a dazzling mosaic, but tribalism makes them monochrome: an orange sash, a green flag, a red MAGA hat. The more complicated a real collective identity is, the greater the attraction of these shrunken simplicities.

The question for those of us who identify as being on the left is how we oppose this tribalization of politics. In her bracing and invigorating polemic Left Is Not Woke, the Berlin-based American philosopher Susan Neiman sets out a charge of intellectual betrayal:

What concerns me most here are the ways in which contemporary voices considered to be leftist have abandoned the philosophical ideas that are central to any left-wing standpoint: a commitment to universalism over tribalism, a firm distinction between justice and power, and a belief in the possibility of progress.

At the core of Neiman’s indictment is her contention that progressive politics has allowed its energies to flow into tribal channels of competitive victimhood in which the Enlightenment ideals enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights have given way to the belief that group identities based on race, gender, sexuality, or ethnicity have the primary claim on allegiance.

It has to be acknowledged that there are good historical reasons for skepticism about the Enlightenment’s claims to have articulated values for humanity as a whole. It’s not merely that the violence of slavery and colonialism exposed the hypocrisy of many of those who claimed to hold those values. It is that the very idea that one was enlightened justified the domination of those who were not. As Caroline Elkins has shown in Legacy of Violence (2022), her rigorous autopsy of the British Empire, the spread of the rule of law (a central Enlightenment project) was the great moral claim of nineteenth-century imperialism. But since the colonized peoples were not yet sufficiently developed to understand it, they could be subjected to what Elkins calls “legalized lawlessness.” This was the catch-22 for nonwhite peoples: until the indefinite point in the future when, under our firm tutelage, you have become sufficiently enlightened to grasp the universality of our principles, those universals exclude you.

It’s also true that “woke” is an expression so thoroughly absorbed into reactionary rhetoric that it has become a signifier without a signified. When Elon Musk can blame “the woke mind virus” for the poor quality of Netflix shows, the decline of Twitter, the condition of San Francisco, the alleged plot by Yale University to “destroy civilization,” the obstacles preventing us from colonizing Mars, and “pushing humanity towards extinction,” there’s a strong case for concluding that the term can no longer function in rational discourse. Like “political correctness” before it, “woke” has ceased to be a concept and is now a klaxon. It serves both to alarm the right-wing base and to drown out the noise of unwanted voices. To say, as Neiman’s title does, that the left is not woke runs the risk of copying the right’s tribalist strategy of defining oneself not just negatively but against an increasingly empty insult.

Neiman is well aware of both caveats. Her claim is not that the thinkers of the Enlightenment were individually or collectively free of racist, sexist, homophobic, and Eurocentric prejudices, but rather that “through the restless self-critique it invented” the Enlightenment “had the power to right most of its own wrongs.” Though Neiman makes much of Immanuel Kant’s attacks on colonialism, she might also have pointed to his ability to change his mind on the subject. In the 1780s he suggested that “our part of the world”—Europe—“will probably someday give laws to all the others,” that the people of India were so docile that “if they were to be ruled by a European sovereign, the nation would become happier,” and that “[Native] Americans and Negroes cannot govern themselves. Thus, [they] serve only as slaves.”

But in the 1790s Kant was forced by his own principles into a radical revision of these ideas. He saw through the colonizers’ pretense of giving “laws to all the others” as a mere justification for rapacity. He accorded full and equal status in law to all people on all continents and asserted their right to defend their ways of life against foreign encroachment. He rejected the claim that there is a hierarchy of civilizations. He strongly opposed slavery and dropped the prejudice that some peoples are incapable of self-government. In a passage from Toward Perpetual Peace that Neiman quotes, Kant writes of the colonizing powers that they

oppress the natives, excite widespread wars among the various states, spread famine, rebellion, perfidy, and the whole litany of evils which afflict mankind. China and Japan, who have had experience with such guests, have wisely refused them entry.

Kant’s search for universal values led him not toward notions of European superiority but away from them.

Far from using the idea of the universal to bolster colonialism, eighteenth-century thinkers consistently turned the tables by imagining how non-Europeans would look with fresh eyes at imperialist assumptions and find them both idiotic and barbaric. Jonathan Swift’s Gulliver explains to his Houyhnhnm master, as though it were common sense, that “if a Prince send Forces into a Nation where the People are poor and ignorant, he may lawfully put half of them to Death, and make Slaves of the rest, in order to civilize and reduce them from their barbarous Way of Living.” His Houyhnhnm listener can scarcely believe that “a Creature pretending to Reason could be capable of such Enormities.”

This trick of imagining how Europe must look to non-Western outsiders was used to similarly devastating effect in, among other works, Lahontan’s Dialogue with a Huron, Montesquieu’s The Persian Letters, Diderot’s Supplement to Bougainville’s Voyage, and Goldsmith’s Chinese Letters. Neiman is quite right to insist that universalism was not “a sham that was invented to disguise Eurocentric views that supported colonialism.” Rather, “Enlightenment thinkers invented the critique of Eurocentrism and were the first to attack colonialism, on the basis of universalist ideas.”

The problem with attacking “woke” is not so easily solved, but Neiman does provide a clear definition of what she, at least, means by it:

It begins with concern for marginalized persons, and ends by reducing each to the prism of her marginalization. The idea of intersectionality might have emphasized the ways in which all of us have more than one identity. Instead, it led to [a] focus on those parts of identities that are most marginalized, and multiplies them into a forest of trauma.

She is not for a moment seeking to minimize those traumas but rather to critique the emphasis on suffering as the most important marker of collective identity.

Just over sixty years ago, in his speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, Martin Luther King Jr. laid bare the pain of racial oppression in America. He said that he and his fellow marchers had come “to dramatize a shameful condition,” and he did so relentlessly and unflinchingly. He knew that many of those he was addressing were not only the victims of historic injustice but were “fresh from narrow jail cells” and still bore the wounds inflicted by police brutality. Yet it is striking that King also preached against the adoption of suffering as self-definition. “Let us not,” he warned, “seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness.” It is a vital lesson: the cup of bitterness can slake the craving for justice, but it can also be addictive.

To define oneself by the trauma of oppression is to remain imprisoned in its narrow jail cell. King was, in his own way, echoing the declaration of Frantz Fanon in Black Skin, White Masks (1952) that “I am not the slave of the Slavery that dehumanized my ancestors.” Freedom, for both King and Fanon, meant liberation from the objective conditions of oppression and from the subjective need to define oneself within the terms imposed by those conditions. King, in that speech, called his people “the veterans of creative suffering,” a remarkable phrase in which “veteran” replaces “victim” and pain is reimagined as a stimulus for transformation. It ought to be a touchstone for the left.

Perhaps one of the reasons why it ceased to be is the difficulty of finding a language that acknowledges, on the one hand, the specificity of the suffering of particular social groups and, on the other, the universal travails of most people under feral capitalism. Adrienne Rich, writing in 1996, noted:

In the America where I’m writing now, suffering is diagnosed relentlessly as personal, individual, maybe familial, and at most to be “shared” with a group specific to the suffering, in the hope of “recovery.” We lack a vocabulary for thinking about pain as communal and public.

Class politics, underwritten by Marxist theory, provided at least one way of doing exactly that: thinking about pain not only as a personal or group experience but as a public condition produced by the ways economies and societies work. It was possible to recognize, for example, that a straight white male coal miner enjoyed the privileges of whiteness, maleness, and heterosexuality but also suffered oppression and exploitation as a worker. It was possible fiercely to oppose systemic injustices without suggesting that those who escaped their very worst effects were just as guilty as those who created them.

There are good reasons for the decline of that mindset—the dissolution of the industrial working class in most of the West and the apparent global triumph of consumer capitalism being the most obvious. The effect, though, is that in the absence of a common vocabulary of oppression, suffering can only be “group specific.” The irony, moreover, is that even as the idea of pain as a shared experience recedes, it also becomes universalized in a tribal form. If suffering is the language of identity, every group must learn to use its emotional grammar. Self-pity becomes generalized, and the weaker the excuses for it, the more passionately felt it must be. Even billionaires can be victims—if all else fails, there is always the woke mind virus.

In this politics of pain, imaginary oppression becomes as potent as the real thing. Neuroscience tells us that pain generated by the brain feels just as real and is just as debilitating as that caused by physical injury. Brexit was driven by the notion that Britain was intolerably subjugated by equal and consensual membership in the European Union. Donald Trump animates the idea of a white America tyrannized by poor immigrants and nonwhite people demanding to be treated as equals. The power of self-pity is that it does not require actual oppression—if you always travel first-class, being stuck in economy will make you feel very sorry for yourself. Its utility is that it makes identities, which are always fluid, open, and multilayered, seem closed, static, and simple. All the group needs to hold it together is the conviction that it is being wronged by some real or imaginary enemy.

Neiman suggests that what fills the vacuum where the universal idea of justice should be is power. Here, she argues, much of the left has converged on a position staked out by the far right, claiming that appeals to universal values and common humanity are no more than smokescreens intended to conceal the reality that all of life is a struggle for domination. Again, this is not an unreasonable conclusion to draw from the history of colonialism or even the more recent history of the US and British invasion of Iraq, in which, as she puts it, the “glaring abuse of words like ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ magnified doubt that such words can ever be uttered in good faith.”

Neiman, however, is primarily concerned with the theoretical underpinnings of this radical cynicism. They go back to Thrasymachus in Plato’s Republic, whom she wittily calls “that postmodern young man who has survived several millennia” and who argues that “justice or right is really what is good for…the interest of the stronger party.” But Neiman’s twin targets are more recent: the Nazi legal theorist Carl Schmitt and the French historian of ideas Michel Foucault. From the obvious truth that claims to be acting according to universal principles of morality and justice are often false, both concluded that all such claims are necessarily hollow. Schmitt, drawing on the eighteenth-century reactionary Joseph de Maistre, warned that “anyone who says the word ‘humanity’ wants to deceive you.” In Schmitt’s case, the twist is that “humanity” was invented by the Jews to disguise their pursuit of Jewish interests. For him, the only truth is the eternal binary of friend and enemy. Politics, like war, is “a matter of the most extreme and intense antagonisms.”

Schmitt’s continuing influence on the right is unsurprising. What is more remarkable is that, from the 1970s onward, this unrepentant Nazi began to be embraced by much of the New Left.* This “surprising turn from aversion to appropriation” (as Matthew Specter puts it in The Oxford Handbook of Carl Schmitt) was underpinned by the righteous pleasure of unmasking Western rulers and exposing the raw pursuit of self-interest that lies behind their claims to be upholding universal values. It seemed, in this way of thinking, actually better to have a West that engaged in neo-imperial violence (and thus revealed its true nature) than to put up with the emptiness of its democratic pieties. As the Princeton political scientist Jan-Werner Müller wrote in 2003:

Unable to live with the organized hypocrisy and “legal fictions” of the international order, some [on the left] seemed to wish for the great immediate cataclysm, rather than live with the ambiguities of piecemeal progress in a highly complex and highly mediated world.

Foucault’s assault on the idea of universal values was more thoroughgoing than Schmitt’s, rooted as it was in profound analyses of the history of sexuality, of the human body, and of institutions of social control. Foucault reduced the whole world—from the intimate to the epic—to power. He wrote in Discipline and Punish (1975), “Power produces; it produces reality; it produces domains of objects and rituals of truth. The individual and the knowledge that may be gained of him belong to this production.” For him, as Neiman quips, “it’s power all the way down.”

There cannot be any knowledge that “does not presuppose and constitute at the same time power relations,” Foucault wrote. So utterly fused are knowledge and power that he conjoins them in his neologism “power-knowledge.” Because there is no point outside of power relations from which they can be objectively criticized, “one abandons the opposition between what is ‘interested’ and what is ‘disinterested.’” From a very different starting point, Foucault ends up in the same place as Schmitt—only war is really truthful: “Isn’t power simply a form of warlike domination? Shouldn’t one therefore conceive all problems of power in terms of relations of war?”

What does a “warlike” conception of power look like in practice? Even if it is not totalitarianism, it must be something like a generalized version of Northern Ireland, in which tribal antagonism devours all sense of mutual obligation and endemic violence becomes an acceptable extension of politics. This is because, in the binary imagination of tribalism, there are only two possible states: to be dominant or to be dominated. Even a genuine revolt against repression and injustice can be understood only as a strategic move by those in the second category to move themselves into the first.

Thus, if we were to return to King’s Washington speech and read it through the lens of Schmitt and Foucault, we would dismiss the soft stuff about “all of God’s children, Black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics” being “able to join hands” in a just future. We would understand King’s dreams of justice and equality, and his appeals to the (very Enlightenment) promises of equality in the US Constitution, as mere masks for the pursuit of Black power. We would pride ourselves on not being taken in by this rhetoric and understanding that what is at stake is merely a reversal of domination in which one racial group seeks to defeat the other. Which is, of course, exactly what the white supremacists (then and now) would have us believe. The left, if it is to take its stand on other ground, must reject this caustic reductionism. It must reconnect to King’s passionate belief that human dignity is indivisible: it is not possible to enjoy it unless it is equally available to all.

Neiman’s short, punchy, and brilliantly articulated argument is essentially a call for those who regard themselves as being on the left to remember the distinction between skepticism and cynicism. The first is crucial to a progressive critique of untamed capitalism. It demands a constant critical awareness of how power and self-interest wrap themselves in virtue, “common sense,” and high ideals. The second is corrosive and ultimately disempowering. The retreat from universal demands is a form of defeatism. As Neiman writes:

The disappointments [of the left] are real and sometimes devastating. But rather than facing them, theory often reads them into the structure of the universe, creating a symphony of suspicion that forms the background music of contemporary Western culture.

The opposite of progressive hope is not realism. It is paranoia. When all evocations of higher principles are understood to be merely ways of seeking advantage for one group over another, critical consciousness dissolves into a hyperawareness of motives, angles, gambits. Knowledge itself becomes impossible—Foucault is now the common currency of a thousand YouTube videos devoted to showing that nothing you see is real and everything is the product of some hidden power. In an era when accepting the reality of climate change is a universal imperative for survival, this is a kind of death wish.

The left, at its best, has always pointed to the contradictions and ironies of democracies that claim to be founded on universal rights even while denying, through discrimination and poverty, the benefits of those rights to very large numbers of people. Its proper method is not the reductivity that shrinks everyone down to this or that category but the expansiveness that seeks to extend democracy into the economic lives of citizens. It recognizes that rights have no substance for those who are denied access to the conditions in which they can be exercised—and therefore it demands that society be reorganized so as to assure that universal ideals are not just principles but practices. It is only at its worst that the left has concluded that those rights are rendered so hollow by hypocrisy that they can be discarded or even destroyed. Without the courage to assert the imperative of justice and the urgency of humanity, the left suffers the worst fate that any movement can contemplate: becoming indistinguishable from its enemies.

The post Defying Tribalism appeared first on The New York Review of Books.

US Philanthropy Goes Outback

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