Republicans are running a skeleton campaign

I’m sure many in the media will say this must mean that Joe Biden is in trouble. Isn’t everything? But it just ain’t so. This is not good news for Trump I don’t care what anyone says:

Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign called itself a “juggernaut” in May of that year, on par with a planet-destroying Death Star that was “firing on all cylinders.”

Trump’s 2024 campaign has traded Star Wars metaphors for talk of a “leaner” and “more efficient” operation, with less real estate, fewer employees and greater dependence on outside groups.

“We’re focused on quality over quantity. I mean, how novel a concept,” top strategist Chris LaCivita told the crowd of top donors May 4 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., according to attendees.

The shift comes as President Biden’s campaign and its allies, buoyed by incumbency, have been moving in the opposite direction, building a more expansive operation sooner than in 2020. Strategists for both major parties expect Democrats to raise and spend more than Republicans over the coming months, a dynamic that has been magnified by the significant legal costs Trump’s fundraising apparatus has absorbed to defend him in state and federal courts.

Trump trying to bribe the oil industry for a billion dollars is more evidence of this “quality over quantity” strategy, amirite?

Trump won spending less money than Clinton in 2016 so the conventional wisdom is that he has some magical abilities that make him beyond any of the usual campaign necessities and requirements. But that was then and this is now. Trump is a known quantity today, the media is treating him critically, he’s been sued for half a billion dollars for fraud, is indicted on very serious charges and is not running against a woman that many voters loathed with a singular passion usually reserved for serial killers. It is a different day and I’m not sure that Trump failing to put together a real campaign is the put-away shot too many people think it is.

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Trump claims that RFK Jr has just been pretending to be against the covid vaccine these past few years to draw support away from Trump’s people for political reasons. pic.twitter.com/1HJjqmDWZP

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) May 9, 2024

“For those of you that want to vote because you think he’s an anti-vaxxer, he’s not really an anti-vaxxer. That’s only his political moment. So, RFK, his views on vaccines are fake, as is everything else about his candidacy.”

MSNBC:

In a striking video on Truth Social, Donald Trump criticizes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., dismissing him as a ‘radical left Democrat’ amid polls indicating Kennedy is siphoning votes from Trump’s campaign. Emphasizing the urgency, Trump states he would prefer Joe Biden over ‘Junior,’ arguing that the country would fare better under Biden’s administration than the ‘immediate collapse’ he predicts with Kennedy.

Trump could theoretically put him away quickly if he wanted to:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has challenged Donald Trump to a head-to-head debate for when both address a Libertarian convention later this month, a move that comes as the presumptive GOP nominee has ramped up both criticism of Kennedy’s independent bid and demands that President Joe Biden meet him on a debate stage.

Arguing that he is “drawing a lot of voters from your former supporters,” Kennedy said to Trump in an open letter posted Tuesday to X that the Libertarian convention provides “perfect neutral territory for you and me to have a debate where you can defend your record for your wavering supporters.”

Trump is taunting Joe Biden every day now to debate (knowing that he won’t agree to do it until the fall because he’s the president not some gadfly.) But he refused to debate any of his primary rivals and he’s not going to do this either.

But it is telling that he’s going after Kennedy so hard and that he’s decided to go after him by pretending that he’s not the foremost anti-vax activist in the country and has been for years. (He’s really all-in on the idea that he has the power to change reality simply by saying something.) They must have some very disturbing poll numbers for him to do this. This is one of his only weaknesses with the cult and the last thing he wants is to have Kennedy out there reminding everyone that he’s the guy who touted the COVID vaccine as one of his great achievements (until he was booed at one of his rallies.) It’s a weak spot and he’s obviously very worried about it.

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Cowardly, yes

“We are so innocent.”

Donald Trump is not invincible in spite of MAGA mythology, explains Jamelle Bouie:

In the folk wisdom of recent American politics, Donald Trump is a figure of herculean invulnerability to traditional scandal. What lands as a crippling blow to most politicians leaves nary a scratch on Trump, who effortlessly deflected the slings and arrows of the 2016 presidential campaign and paid no discernible price for the “Access Hollywood” tape, his racism or his general incoherence.

There has long been a “please don’t hit me” reflex among established Democrats, a conditioned, abused-spouse behavior. Don’t make Daddy mad. Don’t impeach him. Don’t hold him accountable. You’ll just make him stronger. And madder. Bouie offers some examples.

Now on trial in Manhattan, Trump is grinding his teeth to nubs over humiliating descriptions of his sexual encounter with Stormy Daniels, about the age of his daughter Ivanka. Yet the myth of his invulnerability is rising again, like the South.

Even so:

Let’s look at the situation as it stands. Despite his best efforts, Trump has not been able to summon the grass-roots activity that signals political strength. There are no febrile crowds demanding justice for Trump at the courthouse door, no mob poised to wreak havoc in Trump’s name — not that he didn’t try to make one appear. And the broader public does not appear to have a problem with either the trial or the prospect of jail time for the former president.

A majority of Americans — 54 percent in the latest poll conducted for NPR and PBS NewsHour — say that the hush money trial and other investigations into Trump to find out whether he broke the law are “fair.” Forty-two percent of Americans, according to a CNN poll released last month, say that Trump’s conduct in his Manhattan trial has been “mostly inappropriate.” Twenty-five percent say that his behavior has been “mostly appropriate.” And according to a January Reuters/Ipsos poll, 71 percent of Americans — including 55 percent of Republicans — say that if Trump did break the law, he should be prosecuted, and if convicted, sentenced to prison.

If there were any sign that this trial was an asset for Trump — any sign that it put him on stronger ground with the voting public — you would find it in national polling. It’s not there. What we see, instead, is a steady head-to-head between Trump and President Biden.

There is also the evidence of the Republican presidential primaries, in which voters are still casting ballots. On Tuesday, nearly 22 percent of Republican primary voters in Indiana pulled the proverbial lever for Nikki Haley, who left the race in March. She won 16.6 percent of the vote in the Pennsylvania primary two weeks earlier. The trial, in other words, has not even rallied dissident Republicans toward the party’s standard-bearer and away from a failed challenger.

Trump is not yet toast, but he’s browning.

Since 2015, there has been this strong desire to make Trump more complicated than he is, as if his power and influence mean that he must have depth and substance. But he doesn’t. Trump is a glorified bully. And like all bullies, he wilts in the face of anyone willing to stand up and say no.

Joe Biden has been hitting Trump hard on social media, but his momentum has slowed since the Gaza protests have focused press attention there.

Brian Beutler complains:

But the current election, and to some extent the unexpectedly narrow margin of the 2020 election, are demoralizing to liberals because that element of naïveté is gone, and yet Trump remains formidable. Democrats are worried about what another Trump presidency would mean, but they’re also stunned by what the numbers keep telling them: We’re losing to that?

I’d encourage liberals who feel this way to imagine what would happen in a mass-market Hollywood film about a well-meaning protagonist who came to the same realization. Would he just keep doing the same thing over and over again, expecting better sense to prevail? Or would he switch tactics, and come up with a new plan to stage a comeback?

My longstanding frustration with Democrats stems from the fact that they’re doing the first thing. I’m relieved to see Biden chastise journalists for underplaying the most important stakes of the election (the media really should do better!) but he and (more importantly) the other leaders of his party are simply not providing any of the high drama they know political media relies on to fuel stories into firestorms.

(At the ground level, getting Yellow Dogs to adopt new tricks is the story of my life.)

Democrats should be doing more to spin Republicans’ foilbles into major controveries., Beutler suggests. Republicans are pros at it, and used their skills to make the most of the campus protests.

But this was about Trump’s invincibility.

In this situation, Trump is not in control for once, and that’s bad news for him. He hates it. Late on Thursday, he had his lawyers ask the judge to lift his gag order with regard to Stormy Daniels once she’d finished her testimony. He wanted to savage her for the cameras outside the courtroom, but lacked the guts to take the stand and testify under oat that, as he claims, the encounter never happened.

Daniels herself taunted him for that.

Real men respond to testimony by being sworn in and taking the stand in court. Oh…wait. Nevermind.

— Stormy Daniels (@StormyDaniels) May 9, 2024

Make the most of that, Democrats.

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For The Win, 5th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV planning guide at ForTheWin.us.

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Introduction: Expanding on the “infant industry” metaphor, this article explores the lessons that development economists could learn from the way mothers nurture and encourage the growth of their children. While traditional views focus on penalties and corrections, this motherhood approach emphasizes encouragement and building on inherent strengths. This simple yet powerful metaphor sets the stage for a discussion on how shifting our focus from weaknesses to strengths could profoundly influence Pakistan’s policy-making and societal morale.

The Motherhood Theory vs. Traditional Approaches:  As an illustration of the radical differences between motherhood versus current approaches, consider the current efforts to improve governance by eliminating corruption. Traditionally, efforts to mitigate corruption in Pakistan have focused on punitive measures—establishing the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), enhancing transparency through audits, and setting up hotlines to report bribes. These mechanisms primarily catch and punish the corrupt, embodying a reactive stance towards corruption.

The motherhood theory introduces a radical shift by applying principles akin to a mother’s encouragement of her child’s first steps. It suggests that we should identify and reward honest behaviors, even if they are rare. Recognizing a single act of honesty amidst widespread dishonesty could set a powerful example, inspiring others to follow suit. Research across various fields supports this proactive approach, showing that positive reinforcement is often more effective than punitive measures. While naming and shaming may temporarily suppress undesirable behaviors, it also fosters resistance and more cunning forms of corruption.

By shifting our focus from punishing the bad to rewarding the good, we not only promote a positive environment but also encourage a culture of integrity that could be far more sustainable in fostering change.

The Power of Positive Focus: Positive reinforcement is a powerful tool in shaping behavior, a fact supported by extensive research in psychology, education, and even organizational behavior. By focusing on what is working well, we can enhance individuals’ willingness to continue those behaviors and even improve them. The motherhood theory suggests that this approach can be applied broadly, from governance to everyday interactions, transforming societal attitudes.

In the context of economic development, emphasizing the strengths of Pakistan—such as resilience, hospitality, and generosity—can inspire more sustainable and inclusive growth strategies. For instance, after the devastating floods in 2010 and the earthquake in 2005, Pakistan witnessed an overwhelming surge of community support. Citizens across the country mobilized quickly, gathering essential supplies and organizing truck convoys to deliver aid to affected areas. This demonstrated a remarkable capacity for collective action and mutual aid in times of crisis.

Highlighting these successful community responses can encourage a more unified and proactive societal response in future challenges. Such positive focus could reshape how Pakistanis view their country and their role within it, moving from a narrative of criticism to one of potential and progress.

The Impact of Negative Media Focus: The focus of the Pakistani media on terrorism, violence, hatred, and atrocities can be profoundly counterproductive. It’s often said that bad news sells, but the consequences of this adage are severe, particularly in a context where public perception can significantly influence national morale and international reputation. The constant highlighting of negative incidents not only feeds a cycle of fear but also provides unintended aid to the objectives of terrorists, who thrive on the attention and the consequent terror they instill.

Proposing an alternative, such as implementing strategic news blackouts during critical events, could disrupt this cycle. While challenging to enforce, this approach has the potential to deprive extremist activities of the oxygen of publicity they seek to survive. By reducing the amplification of negative events, we can minimize the psychological impact on the populace and encourage a focus on recovery and resilience instead.

This strategic shift in media focus could lead to a greater emphasis on constructive and uplifting stories, showcasing the resilience and unity of Pakistani society. Such coverage would not only improve national morale but could also change how the world sees Pakistan, highlighting the country’s strengths rather than its struggles.

Unexplored Strengths and Opportunities: Pakistan is a country rich with untapped potential and numerous inherent strengths that can be leveraged for significant economic and social development. Recognizing and capitalizing on these strengths can dramatically shift the nation’s developmental trajectory.

One notable strength is the hospitality and warmth that Pakistanis extend to visitors, often surprising them with the depth of generosity and kindness. This cultural trait could be harnessed to boost the tourism industry, which has the potential to generate substantial revenue and create numerous jobs.

Additionally, Pakistan’s high level of charity as a percentage of income reflects a deeply ingrained spirit of generosity. This could be channeled into structured community development projects that not only provide immediate relief but also empower communities to sustain their growth.

Moreover, the resilience shown by Pakistanis during numerous economic crises, supported by strong social networks, highlights a robust informal support system. Formalizing these networks through policies that support social entrepreneurship could foster a more resilient economy.

Exploring agricultural strengths, such as Pakistan’s capability in milk production, presents another avenue. By introducing technology and expertise in dairy processing, Pakistan could expand into producing high-value products like cheese and yogurts for both local consumption and export.

Finally, leveraging international relationships, such as the unique friendship with Turkey, could be beneficial. Turkey’s advanced olive oil industry provides a model that Pakistan could emulate to revamp its own nascent olive oil sector, enhancing quality and expanding market reach.

These examples illustrate just a few ways that recognizing and building on local strengths could open new paths for development that align with Pakistan’s unique capabilities and needs.

New Directions and Initiatives: Pakistan stands at a pivotal moment where leveraging established industries and introducing forward-thinking educational reforms could dramatically alter its developmental trajectory. Here are some key initiatives to consider:

1. Support for Established Industries: Cities like Faisalabad, known for their export-quality industries such as surgical goods, footballs, and electronics, can benefit from a supportive framework that fosters technological innovation and market diversification. This approach, inspired by the Korean model, would involve providing these industries with incentives to diversify and enhance their international competitiveness.

2. Enhancing Agricultural Value Chains: There is significant potential in agricultural sectors like dates, mangoes, and dairy products. Improving processing techniques, packaging, and marketing strategies can help position these products more competitively in international markets. Such initiatives would build on existing agricultural strengths and extend their economic impact.

3. Revolutionizing Education: Transforming the educational system by shifting from English to students’ mother tongues could yield significant improvements in educational outcomes. This approach builds on the linguistic strengths of the population, making education more accessible and engaging, thereby preparing a more capable and empowered future workforce.

4. Inter-faith Harmony Campaigns: Promoting national harmony through well-designed inter-faith campaigns is crucial for enhancing social cohesion. These efforts can also improve Pakistan’s international image, showcasing a commitment to unity and diversity.

5. Modern Fishing Industry: Currently our primitive fishermen are suffering obsolence of techniques and equipment and having difficulty facing challenges created by Gwadar and other developments. Instead of allowing them to collapse, we should encourage them to modernize, to capture the enormous amount of untapped potential of fishing in our large coastal areas

Each initiative outlined here represents a strategic shift towards capitalizing on Pakistan’s inherent strengths and capabilities. This approach not only aims to address current needs but also establishes a foundation for sustainable, long-term prosperity.

Community-Driven Development: Community-driven development (CDD) has emerged as a pivotal strategy in fostering sustainable growth around the globe. This approach empowers local communities to take charge of their own developmental projects, making decisions that best suit their unique needs and circumstances. By investing in and trusting the local population, we can unleash a myriad of grassroots initiatives that function as engines of growth.

In Pakistan, numerous organizations have successfully adopted this model, demonstrating its effectiveness. For instance, the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF), the National Rural Support Programme (NRSP), and the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) have played significant roles in empowering communities, improving education, and enhancing local governance. These organizations facilitate projects that range from building infrastructure to improving water supply and educational facilities, directly involving community members in the planning and execution phases.

The success of CDD hinges on the utilization of local knowledge and resources, ensuring that projects are not only sustainable but also culturally and economically relevant. For example, community-led educational programs that incorporate local languages and cultural practices have shown higher engagement and success rates than those imposed from the top-down.

Moving forward, expanding the scope of CDD initiatives can further accelerate community empowerment and development. By providing communities with more autonomy and resources, and integrating their feedback into national policies, Pakistan can build a more inclusive and resilient future. This shift towards community-driven governance will not only enhance developmental outcomes but also strengthen the democratic fabric of the nation.

Conclusion: The motherhood theory of economic development, inspired by the nurturing approach a mother takes with her child, offers a transformative lens through which we can view and shape Pakistan’s future. By focusing on strengths rather than weaknesses, and by fostering an environment of encouragement and support, we can unlock the vast potential that lies within our nation.

This approach not only calls for a shift in policy but also a cultural shift towards positivity and empowerment. The initiatives outlined—from revitalizing established industries to revolutionizing education systems, and from enhancing agricultural value chains to strengthening community-driven development—demonstrate the broad applicability and potential impact of this nurturing paradigm.

As we move forward, it is essential that we embrace these principles, not just in our economic strategies but in every facet of our national discourse. By doing so, we can foster a society that thrives on collaboration, innovation, and mutual respect—a society that builds on its strengths to create a prosperous and resilient Pakistan.