Chancellor Scholz Must Change Course and Support Ukraine to Win
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is putting Germans and all Europeans in danger. His current policy seriously risks defeat in Ukraine, which would embolden Moscow and raise the likelihood of a wider war with Russia in which the missiles could be falling on Cologne rather than Kyiv.
Defeating Russia in Ukraine and deterring Moscow from further aggression would remove the single largest threat to European security but, instead of changing course and committing to victory, Mr Scholz is doubling down by positioning himself as a ‘Peace Chancellor’. Ignoring the clear need to win the war, which is openly proclaimed by key allies, he fixates on avoiding necessary steps – including sending Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine – which he claims could make Germany a ‘war party’.
This is a fiction as previous weapons deliveries (including cruise missiles) have not made Western states war parties under international law; neither have they triggered the ‘escalation’ that advocates of timidity so fear. What is more, the distinction is pointless given that Vladimir Putin already considers Germany a war party, regardless of Mr Scholz’s view – or the law. Mr Putin’s declared goal is domination of Europe and he already sees Russia as being at war with the West, including Germany.
Mr Scholz’s so-called ‘peace’ posture risks becoming appeasement – shying away from necessary actions in the futile hope of placating an aggressive dictator. Even if this is targeted at his (SPD) party’s declining poll ratings, Germans should know that the real effect of playing domestic politics with our security is to harm our collective deterrence.
Deterrence works by having the capabilities to defend yourself and demonstrating the will to use them. This raises the cost of any attack and reduces the chance of the enemy succeeding, which decreases the chance of conflict. Failing to project strength and readiness has the opposite effect which is why Mr Scholz’s ‘peace’ campaign is so damaging: it makes a wider war more likely.
Germany may superficially appear a good ally by mirroring the current US position but, look deeper and this is revealed as folly. Berlin is falsely taking the US line as a boundary for acceptable action, whereas in reality, Washington would be happy for Europeans to push ahead. With main battle tanks as well as cruise missiles, the UK and France have demonstrated that it is not necessary to wait for a US lead to do what is needed to support Ukraine.
More concerningly, this mirroring ignores the fact that Germany is physically closer to the war than America and lacks the US’s nuclear weapons, which makes it more directly exposed and drastically more vulnerable to both military and non-military threats from Russia. German national security therefore demands a different policy.
Europe also now faces uncertainty over the future of the US security guarantee. Yet, while Europeans may currently lack the full range and depth of capabilities to defend ourselves, we are collectively re-arming and have many powerful weapons. We also have the economic might to defeat Russia in Ukraine – if we put it to the right purpose. Combining these capabilities with the right attitude and, crucially, by committing to winning in Ukraine, we could still deter Putin – and buy ourselves time to build our strength.
Instead, Mr Scholz is effectively broadcasting that Germany is afraid, can be bullied and blackmailed, and that it is not willing to stand up for its values and interests via victory in Ukraine. Nor is Germany’s re-armament going anywhere near as far or as fast as it should. Mr Putin is skilled at exploiting uncertainty and is emboldened by weakness, so the Chancellor’s approach both makes Kyiv’s defeat more likely – and makes Germany a more tempting target.
Rather than focusing on doing ‘whatever it takes’ to win in Ukraine, the Chancellor points to how much Germany has already promised to spend in comparison to allies. True, others also need to do more, but Mr Scholz’s excuses help no one. They ignore Germany’s massive economic heft as well as its self-declared ‘special responsibility’ for European security, and belittle the ways other allies have shown leadership: by sending more powerful weapons sooner, committing far higher proportions of their GDP to Ukraine or properly arming themselves.
The tragedy of this is that while Germany is spending a lot of money, Mr Scholz’s approach is the most expensive way to make Europe less safe.
The obvious frustration of key allies at Mr Scholz’s latest refusal to send Taurus missiles, despite the dismantling of his excuses, is part of a long pattern of foot-dragging on weapons Ukraine manifestly needs. Unfortunately, Mr Scholz has shown that he will not shift any other way and so the shaming will continue until policy improves.
Yet, such allied actions can only treat the symptoms (delivery of individual weapons systems), not the cause (Germany’s overall approach). Until sufficient pressure also comes from inside the country, there will not be a solution.
National Security is the irreducible function of the state. Leaders from across Germany’s major political parties – the Greens, Free Democrats, Christian Democratic Union, and Christian Social Union – must now fulfil their responsibility to ensure their country delivers. That starts with backing Ukraine to win, urgently and effectively demanding policy to match, and embracing their power to create the conditions for it to be implemented.
Initial Signatories
Hon Chris Alexander, PC, Distinguished Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Diedre Berger, Tikvah Institut gUG, Berlin
Jonathan Berkshire Miller, Director of Foreign Affairs, National Security & National Defence, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Stephen Blank, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.
Prof Dr Sören Brinkmann, Willy Brandt Centre for German and European Studies, University of Wroclaw
Aaron Gasch Burnett, Journalist and Analyst, Co-host of BerlinsideOut podcast
Olga Byrska, Sciences Po, Paris and European University Institute, Florence
Edward Hunter Christie, Senior Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Dr Ariel Cohen, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Dr Franziska Davies, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich.
Gordon B Davis Jr, Senior Fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis
Dr Balkan Devlen, Director of the Transatlantic Program, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Dr Thomas Enders, President,German Council on Foreign Relations
Ralf Fücks, Managing Director, Centre for Liberal Modernity, Berlin
Dr Ian Garner, Queens University
Alyona Getmanchuk, Founder and Director, New Europe Center, Kyiv
Keir Giles, Consulting Fellow, Chatham House
Dr Gustav Gressel, Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Dr Olena Halushka, Centre for Ukrainian Victory, Kyiv
Rebecca Harms, Former MEP and President of the Green Group in the European Parliament
Dr Pierre Haroche, Queen Mary University of London
François Heisbourg, European security expert, Paris
Valeriia Hesse, Central European University, Vienna
Fabian Hoffmann, University of Oslo
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Former President of Estonia
Prof Dr Thomas Jäger, University of Cologne
Prof. Tomas Janeliūnas, Instutute of International Relations and Political Science, University of Vilnius
Jacob Kaarsbo, Senior Fellow, Think Tank Europa, Copenhagen
Dr Jochen Kleinschmidt, TU Dresden
Ambassador Pavlo Klimkin, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine & former Ambassador to Germany
Dr Valeria Korablyova, Ukraine in a Changing Europe Centre, Charles University Prague
Dr Bohdana Kurylo, University College London
Prof David Clay Large, Institute of European Studies, University of California Berkeley
John Lough, Associate Fellow, Russia & Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Edward Lucas, Senior Advisor, Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
Paul Mason, London
Hanna Manoilenko, University of Melbourne
Oleksandra Matviichuk, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Director, Centre for Civil Liberties, Kyiv
Dr Nona Mikhelidze, Senior Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome.
Christoph Moosbauer, former Member of the German Bundestag
Mattia Nelles, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Berlin
Prof Dr Francesco Nicoli, Gent University
James Nixey, Director Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Prof Jacob Oberg, Professor of EU Law, University of Southern Denmark
Dr Maciej Olejnik, Willy Brandt Centre for German and European Studies, University of Wroclaw
Alicia Montiel Oliveros, fmr Lecturer for International Relations, University of Caradobo-Valencia
Prof. Phillips P. O’Brien, Head of School of International Relations, University of St Andrews
Dr Artis Pabriks, former Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defence Minister of Latvia
Prof Maria Popova, McGill University, Montreal
Dr Kristi Raik, Deputy Director, ICDS, Tallinn
Prof Dr Stephan Stetter, Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich
Julian Stöckle, Danube Youth Council
Alice Stollmayer, Founder and Director, Defend Democracy, Brussels
Edward Stringer, Retired Air Marshal (RAF), London
Dr Benjamin Tallis, Senior Research Fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations
Dr Maximilian Terhalle, Visiting Professor, London School of Economics (LSE IDEAS).
Dr Nathalie Tocci, Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome.
Dr Andreas Umland, Stockholm Centre for East European Studies
Kataryna Vakarchuk, Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University
Dr Alexander Vindman, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired),US Army
Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, Former NATO Deputy Secretary General, US Asst Secretary of Defense, US Ambassador to Russia
Dr Alexander Wolf, Hans Seidel Stiftung, Berlin
Marieluise Beck, Director for Eastern Europe, Centre for Liberal Modernity, Berlin